One more thing. Downturns happen. But if the economy crashes or oil goes back up to $120 per barrel or higher then it’s the airline that caters to the business traveler that will succeed. People going on a vacation won’t have the money to travel and you won’t sell $69 tickets when oil goes sky high.

I was once at Airtran. For the most part, life was good. Fast upgrade. OK pay. Etc, etc.

That said, we were a disposable airline. We owned very little. In fact, you will notice how easily and quickly Southwest disposed of us. If I didn't keep my old hat emblem, I wouldn't even know Airtran ever existed.

Another anecdote. A friend was furloughed from Northwest/Delta--for years. Was quite senior at Jetblue. He took the recall to Delta.

Delta ain't going anywhere. They may furlough. They may not. Go. Ask for an earlier class date. Wake up and smell the double-breasted suit! Your ex-wives will thank you.

I agreed with most of what you were saying...up until this.

During downturns, businesses cut back on travel costs, not only number of flights but also on first/business class travel. The legacies took huge hits during the recessions partly because they lost their "bread-and-butter" revenue (i.e. business traveler). Yes, people will cut back on leisure travel during a downturn, but businesses do as well.

Allegiant was still making a profit during last recession. The legacies weren't. People still want to vacation, even during a downturn. They're just unwilling to spend a lot. That's where the ULCCs shine.

With that being said, any young/junior pilot needs to look at moving on. We aren't going to be affected by retirements like the legacies are. Junior people are not going to accrue seniority without more senior-pilot attrition or continued growth. You'll end up in a much better spot more quickly at a legacy than you will here.

Agreed. Sure we parked some paid for airlines, and tightened our belts, but people in middle Iowa are always going to want a vacation. And when they do, they go online and find the cheapest ticket. During a recession, people who would fly a legacy airline give us a try. And they realize that not only the price is right, they skip that busy hub with a plane change and go direct to their destination. They love it and become loyal customers. We actually do better during recessions. Southwest seems to have this effect too.

Legacy carriers (DAL, UAL, AAL) make most of their money on business travelers and international seats. When the sky falls, businesses do less travel and more teleconferences. International tourism drops off. Same happens with wars or terrorist attacks. Without a doubt, the big 3 are more susceptible to downturns than the LCC/ULCC airlines.

I have friends at UAL who were furloughed twice. They struggled, and found stuff to do on their furlough. But you know what? They are back and making more money than me in the right seat of a wide body. Downturns happen. Furloughs happen. It's part of the industry. As a long timer, I say take that legacy seniority number and don't look back.

Very good point


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Excellent point sir. It’s simple if u have any doubts or don’t see your future here? Then you already made your choice


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There are a few. I’ve personally met 1


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Recently? You said one was in his 30s.

They stopped hiring in 2001 and an ATP requires you to be 23 years old.

Doesn’t matter really. Hope the best for those that stayed and those that left.

With the amount of retirements looming on the horizon at Delta, I'm confident we will simply not hire and allow retirements to take care of excess staffing in the event of a serious downturn. (Seriously -- a third of our list.)

Don't live your life in fear and look back at age 65 at what could have been.

I think the OP has already made up his mind, FWIW.

I've looked at the majority of the widebody pairings at DAL and all of them would be a QOL decrease from day trips. I can see how some people enjoy that type flying and that's great but the backside of the clock working will wear down your body over the years/decades. I would rather work a few day trips and be around to see my kids grow up when I get off work. There is no doubt that you will have a better retirement fund but as little as I work and as much as I'm home even on the days I work, I feel like I'm retired now.