Smaller is key, PSA will flow 100 next year. Looks like in 2017 (as of Sept) PSA was flowing 5 per month.

What are you asking? Flow (Envoy, PSA, PDT) will take care off ~ 50% of 2018 new hires. The other ~50% will come from the military or civilian (mostly regionals). If you're asking "are there that many civilian pilots available?" Definitely.. currently there are 20,000 + regional pilots. Don't forget Allegiant, Spirit, Frontier, most of those have their apps out.

900

so it will end up being just over 500 then? We get these big numbers every year and they never are as much as they say.

They were pretty close to their estimate this year. I’m guessing next year will be the same.

Every CA (737) I fly with is 55+ ... not a single one is waiting till 65. I'm curious how many pilots are leaving early.

There have been some bumps in the typical seniority related training cycle recently. I'm guessing some of that's due to the post merger base to base movement. Summer training can also be junior because senior guys would prefer to not be in training over the summer. They can choose Jan-May or Sept-Oct if they prefer.

June, or July, is the previous year's seniority numbers. Right now that means an automatic increase of 400 +/- after the new seniority list comes out to make an apples to apples comparison. IE, June 10,000 is the same as August 9,600. The same guy didn't jump 400 numbers in two months. It was more like 70 numbers but the shuffle is only done once a year.

I'll look at the numbers.

90% are leaving at 65. 10% are leaving at 60. Average retirement age is 64 because of the 10% leaving at 60 drops the average. The median and mode is 65.

The displacements play a big role. I’m almost positive (taking new seniority numbers into account) that June was the most junior group 2 captain. It was a big bid.

That's not quite correct. The "protected pilot" flow at envoy that was the result of a grievance settlement is *supposed* to give us 50% of new hire class slots at AA for everyone still here that was hired before OCT of '11. However, the company has chosen to take the minimum metering of 25/mo as the target instead, which the union is grieving (for all the good it will do.) We should flow 450 from envoy next year, but my guess is it will end up being 300 despite the contract language. Just another broken promise.

They say that but they'll be here to 65 and 70 if they raise the age.