Are previous vacancy awards saved anywhere?

 

It's either the Ouija board or the Magic 8 ball. Seriously.
They look at who's leaving the same bid status, who's going where, what their Zodiac sign is, etc, etc. But you can always ask and the worst they can do is ignore your request which is where you were before you asked.

 

Junior FO's DOH -

BOS 2/2018
DCA 6/2018
DFW 1/2018
ORD 8/2014
PHX 7/2017

CLT - 3/2017

JFK, LAX, MIA, PHL (190) going to new hires.

CLT/PHL 320 openings have dried up. No movement(PHL had one guy come in on the 320). If newbies want to get to PHL the 190 is the way to do it. How knows how many guys are asking for the PHL 320 bid??

 

Is that ord number correct? Does that mean the most junior fo at ord was hired 4 years ago?

 

That was the current movement eff 1 December.
Junior ORD is 5/2017 from a previous bid.

For unknown reasons CLT and PHL 320 FO has has little movement. But DFW 777 FO suddenly gains 20% entirely at the bottom of the bid status. So movement, or opportunity, isn’t linear. Which is a good remember of the airline truism “if you want it bid it.” Guy held off on bidding for his upgrade to have the summer off in 2001. That decision delayed his upgrade for about 6-7 years.

 

I'm not totally up on how to read these things but what is the reason DFW777 went so junior? Did they add more positions? I hear that is a pretty sweet gig even on reserve.

I was also really surprised the Airbus CA in NYC went so junior, I wonder if they added positions there as well?

 

DFW? That's a good question and a bit of a surprise. A net gain of over 60 guys? Will the bid status grow by 20% over it's current size? For what flying? To where? Taking 787 flying?

JFK 320? Looks like a net gain of approx. 30+.

They said they're upgrading 229 CA's in this bid. That's over a 1,000 a year if the rate remains the same. NYC would expect to need approx. 92 CA's to cover their fair share of the expected upgrade demand. But is NYC, as a junior base, more prone to feeding upgrades through the school house as they bid out to other bases as soon as they can hold the other base? So you'd expect to see a larger training bubble for CA's in NYC as they're positioned prior to other CA's bidding out? IDK but that would be my guess.

Here's the crazy part - our retirements will increase by over 50% in 2023-2025 compared to next year's mandatory retirements. The era of big, or really big, vacancy runs might have started with bigger one's ahead.

 

The next few years will simply take your breath away. And even passed the peak, large retirements will be sustained.

The industry will have not seen this radical movement since the dawn of the jet age (1950s/1960s). Seriously.

The only difference is your first assignment will not be sitting sideways!

 

This year's retirement rate will continue through 2031. Fourteen years.
Last year's retirement rate will continue through 2034. Eighteen years.

The average career will be around 28 years. Guys will here the sucking sound of guys leaving for half of their career.

 

That's great, but how in the efff will the schoolhouse keep up?