March Vacancy
12-17-2018, 09:19 AM
#181
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2012
Posts: 403
I think AA wants nothing to do with a new fleet type like the 220. Reading the tea leaves, it appears the company is trying to get newer planes but less types, and I actually think that is smart. One company has done pretty good with one fleet type for decades....just saying. I’d would have loved to see the 350 here, as I think it is a better product then the 787, but I think it was the smart move to go with commonality long term. I believe in 10 years we will have the 737 and the 320 family doing all the domestic flying including much of SA and Hawaii. Then it will be the 787 mainly international and 777 will start to phase out along with the 330.
Reduced training costs, reduced maintenance and parts supply, easier crew staffing models. Ideally a solid operation would have one domestic aircraft and one international aircraft. Highly doubt AA cares about the 220 when they can continue to get 319’s from other operators.
Reduced training costs, reduced maintenance and parts supply, easier crew staffing models. Ideally a solid operation would have one domestic aircraft and one international aircraft. Highly doubt AA cares about the 220 when they can continue to get 319’s from other operators.
12-17-2018, 09:30 AM
#182
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,097
Originally Posted by TransWorld
They do have to consider the cost of having an additional aircraft type. If AA were to purchase 75 A220 aircraft, the amount Delta is buying (with options for more), it would be the 4th largest fleet. B738, A321, and A319 would have more metal, all the rest fewer.
With all the Mad Dogs going away next fall, it wouldn’t mean more types of aircraft to maintain. Looking ahead, most of the A319 are Legacy America West and are 15 to 20 years old. Over the next decade they will get to that point where they should be replaced.
It appears new or ‘gently used’ A319 will be difficult to come by. Airbus has plenty of orders (and with international growth driving more orders) of A320 and A321 to keep their assembly full in Europe.
I think they will focus on selling the A220 to get their money’s worth on the purchase of them. So I can see the number of A220 suplant the A319 as that sweet spot between the regional 76 seaters and the B738 and A320/A321 larger aircraft.
With all the Mad Dogs going away next fall, it wouldn’t mean more types of aircraft to maintain. Looking ahead, most of the A319 are Legacy America West and are 15 to 20 years old. Over the next decade they will get to that point where they should be replaced.
It appears new or ‘gently used’ A319 will be difficult to come by. Airbus has plenty of orders (and with international growth driving more orders) of A320 and A321 to keep their assembly full in Europe.
I think they will focus on selling the A220 to get their money’s worth on the purchase of them. So I can see the number of A220 suplant the A319 as that sweet spot between the regional 76 seaters and the B738 and A320/A321 larger aircraft.
A320 type - 419 (319 - 148; 320 - 48; 321 - 236)
B737 type - 344
A330 type - 24
75/76 type - 42
B777 type - 67
B787 type - 42
E190 type - 14 (going to 0)
Now breaking it down to narrow bodies:
A/C and seating:
MD80 16/124 (140) [for reference]
A319 8/120 (128)
A320 12/138 (150; -> could this be increased to similar seating as B737?)
B737 16/144 (160; -> 172 eventually)
A321 16/171 (187; will be adding a few coach on new NEOs)
It would seem to me the A320 could be eventually ruled redundant. Very similar capacity to our B737s. That leaves the 319 and 321, could they be replaced with additional product? The 321NEO is a fantastic aircraft that can also lead into the 321LR.
The 319 could definitely be replaced with a C series or E195-E2. You could also absorb the 320 fleet into additional B737 orders. But that still leaves the 321 which really has no replacement, especially the NEO.
I think maybe the best option is still to keep the 319/321 and gradually replace the 320's as they are retired with 737's.
As nice as the C series is, I just don't see how it fits into our fleet plans. We have no real need for its 4000 mile range, our transcons are generally run on the 321s. Delta is the exclusive mtc provider in the US. When paired up with the Embraer product on a sub 1000 mile range, the Embraer CASM is less.
So would we even need an E195? I just don't see it, unless they can't get any 319's at a good used price.
As far as widebodies go, I can see eventually picking up 787s used as they come off lease to replace the A330's. Now, what about the 757? There is just no replacement AFAIK. How does the 737MAX compare to the 757 performance wise? Depending on how profitable (or not) it's specific Latin America routes are, we may just decide to pack it in and leave those markets altogether.
12-17-2018, 01:53 PM
#185
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: A-320
Posts: 1,122
Originally Posted by AHTTD
Collective thoughts from the audience on bidding into a dying fleet?. FO living in DFW. See 4 DFW/76s.
I think DFW will be hanging on the 767 for a while. I think DFW and MIA will be the last 2 bases standing. They've already announced PHX and LGA going away next year. PHL is getting 787 service next year, so it's probably going after PHX and LGA. If you get displaced, you get whatever you can hold, which is nice. However, the trips may suck at the fleet dies down. If you live in base and want to stay home, reserve might be a great deal.
12-17-2018, 02:12 PM
#186
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2005
Position: MD-11 FO
Posts: 2,180
They have no desire to get 100-seat jets at mainline. The latest "Tell Me Why" with VR talks about how we NEED RJs and we need more RJs. Same story, different day. These guys just want more RJs and have no idea how to run an airline.
12-17-2018, 02:28 PM
#187
Gets Everyday Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: Relaxed
Posts: 6,947
Name User -
Thanks for a factual and thoughtful post. You and I agree on many of your points. I think the A320 will be redundant and replaced with the 737. Undoubtedly there will be some consolidations on the WB.
The area where we differ is on the low end. As I see it, here are the questions:
1. Can ‘gently used’ or new A319s be acquired in sufficient quantities? That is the biggest question on which all the other questions hinge.
2. At what rate will the old A319s be retired, over the next few years to a decade out? If replacement A319s cannot be acquired, will that fleet eventually shrink?
3. How many 76 seat routes will need to be upgauged? This may be through PAX growth, pilot shortages, efficiencies, etc.
4. What deals can AA get on the A220? What is the CASM compared to alternatives? How does it fit in with route structure, range, etc.?
5. What deals can AA get on the Embraer products? CASM? Route Structure? Range?
Stay tuned to this station in 5 or 10 years; see what predictions come to pass.
Thanks for a factual and thoughtful post. You and I agree on many of your points. I think the A320 will be redundant and replaced with the 737. Undoubtedly there will be some consolidations on the WB.
The area where we differ is on the low end. As I see it, here are the questions:
1. Can ‘gently used’ or new A319s be acquired in sufficient quantities? That is the biggest question on which all the other questions hinge.
2. At what rate will the old A319s be retired, over the next few years to a decade out? If replacement A319s cannot be acquired, will that fleet eventually shrink?
3. How many 76 seat routes will need to be upgauged? This may be through PAX growth, pilot shortages, efficiencies, etc.
4. What deals can AA get on the A220? What is the CASM compared to alternatives? How does it fit in with route structure, range, etc.?
5. What deals can AA get on the Embraer products? CASM? Route Structure? Range?
Stay tuned to this station in 5 or 10 years; see what predictions come to pass.
12-19-2018, 10:13 AM
#188
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,097
Originally Posted by TransWorld
Name User -
Thanks for a factual and thoughtful post. You and I agree on many of your points. I think the A320 will be redundant and replaced with the 737. Undoubtedly there will be some consolidations on the WB.
The area where we differ is on the low end. As I see it, here are the questions:
1. Can ‘gently used’ or new A319s be acquired in sufficient quantities? That is the biggest question on which all the other questions hinge.
2. At what rate will the old A319s be retired, over the next few years to a decade out? If replacement A319s cannot be acquired, will that fleet eventually shrink?
3. How many 76 seat routes will need to be upgauged? This may be through PAX growth, pilot shortages, efficiencies, etc.
4. What deals can AA get on the A220? What is the CASM compared to alternatives? How does it fit in with route structure, range, etc.?
5. What deals can AA get on the Embraer products? CASM? Route Structure? Range?
Stay tuned to this station in 5 or 10 years; see what predictions come to pass.
Thanks for a factual and thoughtful post. You and I agree on many of your points. I think the A320 will be redundant and replaced with the 737. Undoubtedly there will be some consolidations on the WB.
The area where we differ is on the low end. As I see it, here are the questions:
1. Can ‘gently used’ or new A319s be acquired in sufficient quantities? That is the biggest question on which all the other questions hinge.
2. At what rate will the old A319s be retired, over the next few years to a decade out? If replacement A319s cannot be acquired, will that fleet eventually shrink?
3. How many 76 seat routes will need to be upgauged? This may be through PAX growth, pilot shortages, efficiencies, etc.
4. What deals can AA get on the A220? What is the CASM compared to alternatives? How does it fit in with route structure, range, etc.?
5. What deals can AA get on the Embraer products? CASM? Route Structure? Range?
Stay tuned to this station in 5 or 10 years; see what predictions come to pass.
This week, we signed an agreement to sell all 24 of our Boeing 767s as they leave the American fleet over the next few years. All 24 are being sold to Jetran, with 20 planned to subsequently undergo cargo conversion and be operated by ATSG.
The A320 does a lot of EOW stuff out of the east coast hubs with life rafts and HF radio. Do our 737's have HF? I honestly have no idea. I do beleive I've been on some with life rafts stored on the ceiling.
The C series has a very similar CASM to the A319NEO. Within a few points. The EMB195-E2 is rumored to have a lower CASM within 1,000 mile range of the C series. The C series would be great for a smaller airline operating out of a hub - it would enable it to compete with the larger operators on cost when flying transcons.
So the E2 will certainly have a lower CASM than an older used A319. But CASM is just one component, you must factor in additional program costs of which I am not privy to. Additional reserves, spares, training cycles, CKA, etc. I'm sure there will be some A319's come off lease as other carriers upgauge themselves. The question will be, can they be bought at a decent price point or will they be overpriced due demand and lack of supply? If fuel prices stay low, the improved performance of the NEO will be neutered.
Last edited by Name User; 12-19-2018 at 10:25 AM.
12-19-2018, 06:08 PM
#189
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Posts: 1,764
Originally Posted by riel39
They just put out a service bulletin in MyMobile365 that describes them. Getting the first one tomorrow; entering service late this month. Two more in February. Eight total, only 2 are enhanced. All non-sharklet, CFM equipped. The first one’s been in paint at ROW since 11-30. It’s only nine years old; originally a Mexicana bird.
12-20-2018, 01:18 PM
#190
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2005
Position: MD-11 FO
Posts: 2,180
Originally Posted by Name User
The A320 does a lot of EOW stuff out of the east coast hubs with life rafts and HF radio. Do our 737's have HF? I honestly have no idea. I do beleive I've been on some with life rafts stored on the ceiling.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
