Said the same thing in January. How have your investments done since then?

 

We should be more worried that our stock closed at a 3 year low.

 

It's actually lower than it opened the day after the merger. In 2013. With $5b in cash that leaves it at $6b left to make the gap.

Assuming only $1b in annual profits...

So in theory someone could buy us for $11b and get their cash back in total in six years. The market is essentially a non-believer in the company making money.

 

My all time peak was July 24. I was a happy camper until then.

 

Well consider also that cutting rates to avoid an inversion is not a sign of a strong economy.

That being said, I don't believe there has ever been a modern day recession that wasn't preceded by a rise in gasoline prices. So we do have that going for us.

 

I’m down for the year. I’m mostly in cash with a little bearish bets. At this point I’m more concerned about the completion of this full cycle.

Earlier this year we saw a rip your face off rally as people bought the dip. Yesterday we saw the 4th biggest sell off points wise in history and today nobody came in to buy. Sentiment appears to be turning.

 

Read about this as well. Unfortunately, commodities going down with inflation low and the Fed cutting rates is deflationary which means the Fed has made a policy error and may have lost control. 😥

 

Long term always wins out.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow...storical-chart

 

If that doesn’t prove it to you...

READ THIS

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/201...-market-timer/

 

Here is a wise insight into the Yield Curve vs. the other Economic Indicators. Not from my investment manager, but similar insight and advice. Janet Yellen, former chair of the Federal Reserve and Wilbur Ross, the Secretary of Commerce both say the same thing.

https://www.franklintempleton.com/in...hoCD7sQAvD_BwE

Historically, sharp correction drops scare the tarnation out of some investors. Then, just as suddenly, the markets go up. People who get out at the bottom of corrections miss out.

The true recession shows in other economic indicators and are slow rolling tops that pick up speed going downhill after a few months. That is not something that screams over a day or two.

I have learned a lot listening to wise people in the markets who consistently beat the market averages. I have learned to tune out the screaming front page news headlines. Have you noticed they are no longer screaming recession after just a couple of days? They have moved on to the next “perceived” crisis of the day.