First / Second year pay...
12-05-2019 | 06:11 AM
#91
You scratched my anchor
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 5,123
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My article spoke of investing immediately before every crash/downturn as well. We only have investment access to limited market history in our lives.
12-05-2019 | 06:21 AM
#92
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 569
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He didn’t speak of investing at the peak of every downturn. Look at any historical Dow chart which goes back to the 1800’s and you’ll see how he cherry picked to get his desired outcome.
12-05-2019 | 06:35 AM
#93
You scratched my anchor
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 5,123
Likes: 74
I don’t think he could have made a better case for investing at a bad time. 1972, 87, 99, 2007. Take a look at the graph. Looks like it’s been good to stay in.
12-05-2019 | 06:45 AM
#94
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2014
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Interested. I cant see doing anything other than what has always worked. The problem I have with (what I perceive as) your logic is when to sell assets/move monies. You really never make or lose money until you lock in that gain or loss. I’ve weathered multiple downturns. The most recent was almost on par with the Great Depression. People were calling for a downturn/large adjustment last year. I have made a lot of money on my investments over the last year. Honestly interested.
12-05-2019 | 06:55 AM
#95
You scratched my anchor
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 5,123
Likes: 74
I can’t help you with the when’s of when to sell. Nobody can consistently pick tops or bottoms. As a value investor I like to buy where there is value. Buying at double the long term Schiller PE makes no sense to me. I also look at the market cap to gdp to get a sense of valuation. Last fall we were 19% down from the top and that was right around where I would typically hunker down, get bearish and wait for a market drop. The Fed stepped in and we are at new highs. I wasn’t 100% invested since then and I missed some of this years run, again because I’m not comfortable at these nosebleed valuations. History tells us that a recession will come and a market pullback of 50-65% will come as well. That’s a run of the mill pullback. If there is a policy error along the way it will be worse.
12-05-2019 | 06:55 AM
#96
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 569
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12-05-2019 | 07:08 AM
#99
You scratched my anchor
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 5,123
Likes: 74
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