Originally Posted by FL450

Just out of curiosity.. unless AL’s chart is wrong wouldn’t someone hired today see 11,7xx pilot retire in the next 15 years? Would that not put a new hire today into a widebody captain slot by their mid 40s with 0 growth and 787s replacing 767s?

Still a good career I assume?

Originally Posted by PRS Guitars

Is WB captain before 50 the standard for making it as a WB captain? I guess I’m not going to do well by that standard.

Originally Posted by Name User

People hired in the last year that were 20s and early 30s will have a better career than the folks hired 4-5 years ago. They'll see MUCH higher gains earlier on while spending more time in the top 1000. Their last decade will be spectacular. The other benefit for them isn't just top end retirements but it's also that the vast majority of folks hired in the past 4-5 years were also quite old with many of the flows being in their 40s and 50s. They'll see a double boost in retirement gains. There will be some that will be widebody captains in their early 40's.



Provided AA doesn't go away and automation doesn't start zapping jobs. Automation wise anything past 2030 is going to start to be suspect. I'd bet half my retirement that by 2050 we will all be single pilot domestically.



Actually a bigger issue is new entrants up ending the business. They may get lucky or they might be like the 99 hires in their early 20's, with the best career prospects since the 60's. We know how that ended.



No real way to know how it will turn out. You can just play the cards you were dealt.

Originally Posted by Surprise

Al’s chart is correct as it’s straight off of AApilots. But that’s over 20 years. So sure, if your hypothetical new hire gets on before he’s 30 then no sweat.

My only point was that yes, current new hires will have great seniority progression, but let’s recognize that there is already a sizable of young guys on property. So I believe that as it stands, the proverbial bow wave is cresting as we speak. That said, Name User is right that we really can’t know what’s ahead of us. Maybe AA will double in size, maybe it will liquidate. Maybe the robots really will take over. 🤷🏻*♂️

Originally Posted by ShyGuy

AA will liquidate? Yeah ok

Originally Posted by mainlineAF

The young airways guys hired before the merger will easily spend around 10-15 years in the top 1000. Idk if I’d say the new hires will get anything better than that.

But yea it’s really just a guessing game this far out.

Originally Posted by Dobbs18

I was going to say this too....there is a small crop of guys hired at Airways from around 2012-2014 I think who were in their late 20's very early 30's who I think will have that "platinum" careers POTENTIALLY...but just great to see the movement on this last bid, hopefully hiring can keep up and we can all move up

Originally Posted by Al Czervik

I have a classmate that is below 500 15 years before retirement. A merger with a LCC could tank that pretty quickly.

Originally Posted by FlyPurdue

I turn 32 in January, and have my F2F interview tomorrow. Purely out of curiosity, can anybody point me toward what my seniority will look like toward 2055?

Thanks!