The AA Flow-Thru Agreements MUST END
 

The American Airlines flow-thru agreement with its wholly-owned subsidiaries need to end immediately. Here's why:

Starting in 2020, the airline in industry is going to see over 6,000 mainline pilots (legacy, major, national, U/LCC, cargo, etc.) hired per year for the foreseeable future. SIX THOUSAND. United is hiring 4,000 between now and 2022 (averages around 1,300 per year), Delta just announced they're hiring over 1,300 pilots in 2020 which will likely continue for years to come to keep up with their retirements, American Airlines is hiring around 1,300 pilots next year and will continue to hire at least 900 per year to offset retirements, Southwest & JetBlue are on a hiring streak of roughly 600 per year and indicate they will continue to do so. FedEx is both growing and dealing with their own retirements with a forecast of around 800 pilots being hired next year, UPS is dealing with the same issues and will be hiring well over 300 next year. Spirit announced a huge aircraft order last month and will be hiring 600-700 pilots per year for growth for at least the next 4 years. Frontier is hiring at least 30 per month for at least the next 6 years to build up their pilot group given their large purchase order of aircraft. Moxy is allegedly starting up within the next 2 years and will need to hire a few hundred pilots just to get kickstarted. Allegiant is hiring 100-200 pilots per year as well. I guess there is also Sun Country and all those other ACMI outfits as well, but meh.

All that said, six thousand pilots is a conservative estimate for number of pilots needed per year at mainline. That's A LOT of movement. Let's consider the applicant pools --

Regional Airlines. Regionals have roughly 20,000 pilots on their books; given that mainline hires mostly captains, the applicant pool is in the ballpark of 10,000 pilots. Of those, approximately 10% are lifers with another 5-10% that are unhireable due to DUIs, criminal backgrounds, too many checkride failures, etc. That leaves us with 8,500ish eligible regional captains. Now consider the pool of pilots with a pilot resume that differentiates them from the standard "I'm a pilot, I fly" resume (undergrad or graduate degree, volunteer work, veteran status, leadership roles, extra type ratings, etc.). Extremely competitive competitive candidates are going to get purged very quickly.

Non-Legacies & ACMI. This one is a tough one to predict. If the company has a decent contract and a pilot on property is already a captain at a place like Spirit or Kalitta, it'd be tough to leave to give up the pay, schedule, retirement, etc. The people most tempted to leave are going to be first officers at these companies. Interestingly enough, places like Spirit, Frontier, and Allegiant have been to known to hire guys with little to no TPIC time in order to keep them from getting snagged up from the legacy carriers with time in an A320 type. That said, the competitive pool - so long as TPIC is a discriminator - is probably lower than people would think.

Corporate & Fractionals. They definitely have a shot at a major if they want it, but they'll likely need a higher experience threshold to be considered since the majors (or at least the legacies) like 121 experience. This applicant pool is hard to predict in terms of numbers and overall competitiveness.

Military. In any given year, there's roughly 800-1,200 military fixed-wing pilots leaving the service. Not all of them are going to pursue a career in the airlines, but given the career opportunity, many nowadays likely are strongly considering it.

Now consider the current flow-thru agreement with AA....
Approximately 50% of all new hires from AA are coming from their flow-thru. Meanwhile, most pilots at Envoy, Piedmont, and PSA have applications out to all of the aforementioned companies hiring en masse in 2020 and beyond. Therefore, most of the competitive or desirable candidates in the years ahead are going to get snatched up elsewhere before they ever come close to flowing to mainline. AA thinks the flow-thru is a carrot for keeping their regional carriers staffed - which is true insofar as recruitment goes. However, it blows my mind that AA effectively has zero control in 50% of their new hires throughout this hiring wave.

The flow-thru has allowed some highly experienced regional captains familiar with the AA system come over to mAAinline in recent years which is great for the pilot and great for the company. However, that's simply going to be less and less the case in years ahead. It would be one thing if AA's regional carriers applied the same high level of scrutiny to their pilot new hires as did AA mainline, but given the squeeze on recruiting at the regional levels, there were periods of time where the wholly-owned carriers were hiring everyone with a pulse.

By eliminating the flow-thru, AA can have 100% discretion in their hiring practices and compete for the limited pool of highly competitive candidates rather than relegating 50% of their new hires to come from flow through candidates that were undesirable by other major carriers.

Discuss.

Yawn 🥱

If it's serving it's purpose of helping recruit new regional guys to fly for the substandard wages and work rules provided, why would they cancel that?
Then, by your own prediction, the hiring wave is about to pick up dramatically.... meaning they will all be hired elsewhere long before flowing.
So, what's the problem?
You've got an interesting argument in search of a problem where none exists

You are aware that AA will hire Envoy/PSA/Piedmont pilots outside of the flow.

If you’re that special man I’d put in that app and update regularly.

Experience as a 121 pilot is the most desirable attribute for a new hire at mainline by far. Veteran status, volunteer work, graduate degrees, etc. are all boxes on an application to be checked or not checked and have very little impact in your ability to perform as a pilot an an airline. A flow through has more than enough time as PIC at any of the WOs to make a more than competent FO at American. You want the “most talented” pilots I guess? What exactly does that mean really in today’s environment? Even if you had to sit next to an FO who had a DUI in 2001 before they were at the airlines? Who cares? They just proved that they could do the job and fly American passengers without incident for the last 6-8 years. The only thing you need to worry about is a poor attendance record or disciplinary record at their WO, but that will be a disqualifying factor soon enough.

The "why" is meaningless because you don't have the "how." It is contractual language at each regional. How do you propose to convince both the pilot groups and managements at those regionals to alter their contracts against their own interests? Do you have a plan for that? This is a pointless conversation.

The issue is a real one and why all the mainline HR departments except AA have ways to throttle and/or eliminate candidates from their “flow” programs, be they merely guaranteed interviews or additional testing or criteria demanding so much flight time as a 121 captain or an absence of bad indicators.

There is an old saying in economics, often called Gresham’s Law. It goes like this:

What that means is that even if someone like an AA wholly owned starts out with a fair random mix of the quality of newbies being hired over time the better candidates in that group are going to be taken up by a major before they ever get to the point that they would be flowing to AA. With every year of experience more and more of the ‘cream’ of each pilot group would leave and by the time someone was actually flowing to AA they would be coming from the leftovers, the least desirable of the group that started.

But it’s actually worse than that, because there is clearly no guarantee the AA wholly owned actually WOULD be getting a fair random mix.

We’ve seen it time and time again recommended in APC. If you are a pilot with “issues” - be they training failures, previous FAR violations, DUIs, no degree, arrested for beating your spouse or whatever - the recommendation is that you “go to an AA wholly owned, because even if the pay sucks and the work rules aren’t the best, it’s the only way you can be assured of getting to a major with...” whatever particular mishap or malfeasance might guarantee the other majors don’t take you.

The OP is 100% correct. The current AA flow - while it works admirably to keep the regionals filled - pretty much guarantees that many of the guys and gals that do eventually wind up being hired at the WO will be sort of the culls of the industry. And the quality of this group will further be reduced over time as the better candidates are picked up before their flow dates.

Over time, the “flowees” will be the leftovers of the industry - people who would not and could not have made it strictly on merit based hire. They may certainly be good enough, and it might even be argued they deserve the position for long and faithful service to AA, but they definitely won’t be the “pick of the litter.”

I completely agree. Well put.

The usual method. You grandfather the senior people and offer to INCREASE the flow for THEM and they sell out the junior people. You get 51% yes. It’s done all the time. Look at the pay for newbies at Sunny, Allegiant, Frontier, Spirit... Newbie pay is less than $60 an hour. At UPS it’s $46 an hour.

Senior pilots sell out the junior pilots all the time. It’s scarcely a new idea.

Everyone knows that for the most part, you get to AA because you flowed or you're military. OTS happens but is difficult and the minority. Many at the WO regionals have their eyes set on AA due to bases/retirement projections, and that is 100% of the reason they are there. Because generally, it is the only way to get in for civilians.

It's going to be a problem. I finally got seriously motivated to leave the regionals in significant part because the quality of new FO's plummeted abruptly as staffing pressures first caused the elimination of most screening standards, and then caused the training dept to start dragging candidates through the system.

As a CA I didn't mind training/mentoring the occasional noob but it turned into perpetual IOE with weak (by historical standards) pilots. It turned into a rare treat to fly with an FO who knew his flows and could do a GA or TCAS RA and not get into an UAS without my intervention.

That was annoying. What really concerned me was the fact that the company was going to start dragging these people through upgrade next, and MY financial future depended on these pilots (upgrading without about 20% of the airline experience that I had when I upgraded) not bending metal and thereby getting feed contracts revoked.

Not looking forward to seeing more of the same flowing up to mainline.
Not sure what the regionals are going to do about quality candidates, since they've already about exhausted the accumulator of previously experienced folks waiting in the wings. The need to incentivize *talented* candidates to enter the pipeline.

I just flew with an ex Eagle DFW guy who interviewed and got hired a year before he would have flowed. Smart one he was, got that number before his buddies.

You SERIOUSLY believe that half of AA new hires are going to be military? Really?

Total USAF fixed wing pilot training is only about 1100 a year, including guard and reserve. And the active duty side is about 2000 pilots below their authorized strength. Everybody who isn’t guard or reserve gets a 10 year active duty service commitment start after UPT and considerable bonuses to stay on active duty until retirement.

Realistically, that’s 1000 pilots per year at best SPLIT AMONGST ALL THE MAJORS.

AA alone will be retiring nearly 800 pilots next year who will have to be replaced, assuming no growth, do you seriously think AA will get 400 military pilots - 40% of the whole number - with United, Delta, SWA, Alaska, UPS, FEDEX, and everybody else wanting the same people?
You’ll be fortunate to get 200 military pilots a year in the coming years. The rest will either be OTS hires - which again puts you in competition to everybody else - and the remains of the AA wholly owned regional pilots after everybody else has hired the ones they thought were the best.

That’s reality.

During my initial Eagle class we had class on Thanksgiving Day, that was my motivation.

Who is "you"? Envoy management? AA management? Why would they want to increase the flow to do that? You don't just have to convince 51% of pilots, you have to convince all 3 parties to change the contract.

The only reason they have the flow is as a recruiting tool. If you dilute it for new hires you lose it for that. Then you have to pay even more. Why would both AA management and envoy management agree to that? They just assume that bad pilots will be weeded out by training, plus Envoy is very quick to fire pilots.

And those 51% of pilots who will supposedly agree to a short term increase in the flow would be trading for language that says what? There is already future flow agreement language (after the protected pilots agreement) that says that flow is conditional on disciplinary records. Every envoy pilot who has been there long enough knows that management uses this to push pilots in many ways, from punishing fatigue calls to violating the contract. Everything you do to stick up for yourself is subject to disciplinary action. Why would 51% of pilots voluntarily give even worse language to a management team they don't trust? It was a few years ago but management came to us once and offered 25 new aircraft in exchange for a B scale (technically a C scale, since regionals are already a B scale), and we told them to pound sand.

Envoy pilots hate their management and vice versa. I don't necessarily disagree with the OP's sentiments, but it is a fantasy that AA pilots could wave their wands and get envoy management to give up on a free recruitment tool, get AA management to threaten staffing at one of their regionals, and get pilots to screw their coworkers, all with agreed upon language with a management team they actively hate. As we used to say at Envoy when I was there, the best thing Envoy had going for it was a contractual plan to escape.

All I'm saying is, the current make up is 50% military. My comment was related to the mindset of regional guys at this time as there are many talented and smart pilots at the AA WOs who recognize that right now that is just about their only way to get in the door.

Do you really believe that AA is going to try to go through the legal trouble of nullifying three legal documents with three companies chock full of pilots they need in seats in the future?

I don't understand the pretentious idea that fully qualified 121 airline pilots flying an AA paint job airplane, owned by AA, in an AA uniform, with pax who believe they are on AA isn't 'good enough' to work at AA?

The differences are so diluted. We've got; the size of the pay check, number of seats in the back.. and the invisible line in your brain.

When AA passengers ride on an Eagle 175, 95% of them think it's AA and can't tell the difference. This infighting is only recognized by pilots and airline management, who love to stratify the pilot group.

The AA Flow-Thru Agreements MUST END
 

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I say bring on the average Joe's hires. The more the better. Show up with a great attitude, don't get entitled about being given the job, and put effort into making the company profitable. And hire more helicopter guys, they're always the most fun.

Signed, an "average Joe" hire, non-astronaut, non-fighter pilot, and C172 "commander".

I've was literally hearing this pilot shortage crap back in the 80s.
Yeah yeah this hiring boom is bigger. yada yada yada.

Agree, the RTP guys have been a blast to fly with. Way better than any cadet/pipeliner. Rebel Scum Rule!

Since we’ve discussed the pilot pool of the fixed wing side, which most wont need a regional for more than a checkride...what’s the size of the RTP eligible pool? Seems pretty big to me.

Hahaha if AA drops the flow program they'll get to sit back and watch as their regionals start to hemorrhage pilots.

Yea honestly that’s how I see this playing out. They’re up to their eyeballs in the flow programs. To stop the flow would likely require them to cough up a ton of money to stop the bleeding of regional pilots going literally anywhere else.

Because let’s be honest... The pay is less than the contract regionals. The pilot contracts are worse than the contract regionals. And without flow most likely wouldn’t show up at all unless it was for a very specific base. They would have to improve all those things to make the WOs competitive and that would cost them millions.

And I’ve heard that AA is making changes to the hiring process at all 3 WOs in 2020. They want a larger hand in the process and a say in who is hired. And I don’t blame them.

There are systemic issues with the regional industry right now. There has been a steady decline in the average aptitude of new FOs entering the industry. In my opinion this is a natural byproduct of the relatively massive amount of movement we’re starting to see. The focus is no longer on the quality of time but the quantity of time and it is painfully obvious. Get my 500 hours and interview at a regional. “Get my 1,000 hours RATP and go to class at a regional. Upgrade once I’ve got 1,000 hours as an FO at my regional (2,000 total time). Become qualified to be a Check Airman once I’ve got 500 hours in the left seat (2,500 total time).” There is a lot of inbred and systemic issues starting to come up. A vast amount of inexperience in both seats. We all know what’s going to fix it... But we don’t like the means to that end. It’s the same thing that has always triggered change in this industry.

You act as though AA has no way to get rid of an undesirable pilot. Pilot's get fired all the time, hell, Delta has fired many 9E SSP folks, and they only take ~60% of 9E pilots that apply. If Endeavor had a flow, I wouldn't be making over $150K here.

No entiendo. You didn’t like the quality of yourself?

I just thought, what kinda company makes people go to class on Thanksgiving? Friends in other industries cannot believe it. I was brand new, three days out of the military when I started at Eagle.

The same one that provides 24/7/365 transportation to the traveling public.

https://giphy.com/gifs/fail-rKIXCmVffQqAM

Check the Thanksgiving flight schedule, you are wrong.

You mean I’m NOT working on Thanksgiving? Does scheduling know?

So because some guy who started at a WO as his first airline, hasn’t been hired at 5-6 year mark and is about to flow, he is undesirable? You must be new to the industry if you think a guy 5-6 years 121 is competitive. A guy can be a good pilot but not “competitive” This post really made me laugh. Thanks. I’d put the drinks down my friend.

I start upgrade training on the day after Thanksgiving, so I need to fly out to DFW on Thanksgiving.

So AA still does that. Whatever. A little annoying, but it is what it is.

On an unrelated note, who did the math on that expression?
It should definitely be 24/7/52.

You bid for an upgrade on a bid that trends junior. It trends junior because there is a risk of holiday training.

Congrats on the upgrade, Captain.

Thanks! :D

"Competitive and desirable" usually have attitudes.

Anyone who's a captain on anything is competitive and desirable. Please stop trying to act like being a pilot of a 737 is any different than one who flies a crj or erj.

This is not true. I start over the holiday and I’ve been withheld almost a year.

You either don’t I understand the process or you don’t work at AA.