Airline Pilot Central Forums - Furlough Estimates

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Thedude (Post 3081259)

My personal number is at least 20% off the bottom.
If a company is going to furlough, it usually the first 10% go rather quickly and then the next 10% would go almost a year later.
Unless things are really, really bad then it would be 50%. (We aren't there)

I still think the numbers that Dougie floated are posturing and managing expectations.

50% mmmm ya ok, I’d like to see any airline shell 50% and avoid liquidation. Not happening

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elismcpikle (Post 3082944)

50% mmmm ya ok, I’d like to see any airline shell 50% and avoid liquidation. Not happening

Go back about 15 years and you will see what furloughing 50% looked like.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thedude (Post 3083012)

Go back about 15 years and you will see what furloughing 50% looked like.

With 40B in debt AA would be sunk if it shrunk to half its size. I understand your point but these are different times.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elismcpikle (Post 3082944)

50% mmmm ya ok, I’d like to see any airline shell 50% and avoid liquidation. Not happening

Independence Air? Oh wait, they did shed 50% and then liquidated. My bad...:D

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jersdawg (Post 3083028)

With 40B in debt AA would be sunk if it shrunk to half its size. I understand your point but these are different times.

I agree, these are different times but I was speaking in general.
A good number of my post tend to go over people heads but some do get it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phil Laschio (Post 3083033)

Independence Air? Oh wait, they did shed 50% and then liquidated. My bad...:D

Apples and oranges.

Quote:

Originally Posted by watch (Post 3081021)

wonder if the name "American" dissolving would be prevented by people in whom the name evokes a symbolic meaning.

These days? It would probably be accompanied by cheering crowds just BECAUSE of the name. After all, that Amerigo Vespucci guy helped Spain enslave a continent.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 3083074)

These days? It would probably be accompanied by cheering crowds just BECAUSE of the name. After all, that Amerigo Vespucci guy helped Spain enslave a continent.

sad and true

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phil Laschio (Post 3083033)

Independence Air? Oh wait, they did shed 50% and then liquidated. My bad...:D

Independence Air? Come on dude! Whopping fleet of 130 lol

Maybe not the best thread to post this but close enough for what is current. Here's what I wish I could of asked Vasu because something doesn't add up. We are hoping to reduce cash burn anyway we can. This even to the point of pulling parking permits from airports we don't normally use which is great. So here it goes:

For July wide body 777/787 flying CLT=0, MIA=0, DFW=12-14 average lines/day, LAX=5-6 average lines/day, ORD=1 line/day, PHL=0, and LGA=0. Total 21 lines per day systemwide. Meanwhile as of August 31st captains alone (on 3xp so add double these amounts for total pilots) CLT=49, MIA=149, DFW=380, LAX=117, ORD=81, PHL=111, and LGA=138. That should add up to 1025 captains and maybe 2000 FO/FB/FC for approximately 3000 total wide body crewmembers.

There appears to be a huge disparity between supply and demand. Even if all the excess were on leave making 55 hours per month that's a big cost to carry over until next summer. Am I missing something? Now there is a small bit of domestic mix in the line count above but probably no more than 10-15%. Most think international flying will be the last to return. Conservatively speaking you could at least reduce international wide body staffing by one half and yet no displacements. I dont get it. What strategy do you think AA is formulating if any. Im curious to what others are thinking.