If there's no open time, you're stuck with what you have.

You've heard of MMAX right? If you want to fly more, you can't...

If your paycheck is too low pick up more flying.......on your terms, not theirs. Lower ALV = QoL and it artificially forces more pilot jobs due to lower productivity.

But you can get paid more.

Does anyone have a valid argument for why management would agree to a lower ALV?
Management will be looking to achieve greater productivity, not less out of the remaining employees. A lower ALV doesn’t achieve that. A lower ALV is strictly a feather bedding strategy that preserves jobs, but unlikely to address employee productivity or cost.

A 20% reduction in ASM results in an approximate surplus of 1300 pilots for July 2021. I expect Vasu to announce a revised 25% ASM reduction for summer 2021 at the July 23rd state of the airline. That will put us at an 1800-1900 surplus for July 2021.

The July 2021 forecast (20% ASM reduction) currently shows a need of 10,997 active pilots. The fall 2020 forecast shows an approximate need of 10,000 active pilots. It’s a real possibility that the same fall reduction will still be in play for fall 2021. There’s around 850 planned retirements between July 2021 and December 2022. With a 25% ASM reduction and a normal fall drawdown in flying, I could easily see AA furloughing 1500 and be properly staffed until early 2023.

A lower ALV causes a little extra overhead cost to carry extra pilots, but offers a lot more flexibility to flex with demand in each seat, as well as lower training costs. Larger furloughs cause larger displacements and training churn both on the way down and back up. Also, if demand comes back more quickly than exists training capacity, lower ALVs naturally correct upward and it allow for it to be covered. If dudes are on the street and demand comes back quickly, they gotta do all the recall requals, NB to WB transitions, upgrades, etc. to cover it.

So in short: more flexibility for a little extra net cost.

When you have a displacement and reshuffle the deck with all group 2 FOs on the bottom, those training cost are minimal in the event of a short requal or medium requal if returning to the same equipment. You would have to be out 3 years to qualify for a full course on the same equipment.

They are playing this whole thing with the hope that they will be able to pounce on market share when it’s available. In my opinion, they are betting the farm on a quick recovery in order to pick up slack where other airlines won’t be able to. A lower ALV would give them the flexibility to grow capacity or shrink costs on a monthly basis. Vasu explicitly stated that this is precisely their goal.

”In a perfect world, we would have, by that time, the same ability to flex down the airline as we do to flex up.”

"Crusty old hold outs"? Really, Really? Us crusty old hold outs carried your water before you knew what it was. Here's an idea...you quit and open a position for a deserving pilot.

Last night I worked with an A320 "Crusty Old Holdout" that put in for a VPLOA as soon as he was eligible. He didn't get it. He was told that the program didn't deliver the savings predicted. Junior pilots loss, but excellent captain.

My guess..the company will move towards other ideas to save jobs. Our NC will get right on it. Oh, wait.

JA

Just one thing this forecast doesn’t reflect: if we get a vaccine this year, all these issues will go away and things return to normal.

Oh, and if President Trump gets re-elected as well.