Historically the total revenue for of the airlines has been about 1% of GDP. Historical growth of GDP has been about 3%. Assuming no significant changes in regulations (single pilot?), scope, work rules, etc. 3% is a reasonable number over a long enough period of time.

GDP growth since 1900, by decade, has averaged 3.12%.

It hasn't averaged that since the 1990's. Since then it's been 1.9%, 2.4%, 2.4%. So 3% seems optimistic.

Airline industry tends to match GDP. A lot of the legacy growth disappeared and switched to the LCC's in the last 20+ years. Recent trends are back to the legacy carriers re-linking to GDP related growth.

When you look a/c orders, remove a/c turning 30 yrs old, the 'growth' is often around 3%.

https://www.crestmontresearch.com/do...-By-Decade.pdf

I’m probably not super competitive. But I’m curious how far off my numbers are from maybe pulling from AA. There are only two airlines I’d leave my current ULCC for.


1800 TT
800 ME 320/1 SIC 121.
825 ME tt

4 year, had ratp. 3.80 gpa.
2 year degree. CS

Alpa volunteer

pilot mentor with an org

2 total early Cx Fails PPL, IRA. One each. One was oral one was Flight. So not a repeated offense.

I do have the App and interview prep stuff done.

6 Letters of rec non-AA.

Idk man. Its not 2022 anymore. You'd probably need 121 PIC. I got hired in 2023 and had my app in since I was an FO and got the call pretty much the day I updated my app to 1000 121 PIC. Granted I dont volunteer and had a low B average with a pretty boring resume so YMMV

Recruitment says average applicant has near 5000TT 500-1000 TPIC (fwiw, unless you’re connected)

Not competitive. Just being honest. Job fair and meet and greets, along with making calls and getting AA internal recs is what matters when your resume is short.

Not sure where you are getting your info from but 1800TT is not competitive for a Legacy job. I don't think it was even competitive during the once in a lifetime Legacy airline hiring wave back in 22/23. Sure, there were a few people hired here and there but it was still the exception then the rule. These days I don't know anybody hired that low.

AA grows via ASMs not pilots, so slightly different than what we would assume. The real driver for us is block hours, more block hours equals more pilots. Block hours are up slightly YOY, what happens this year remains to be seen.

Total forecasted staffing has not changed materially since March 2024:

https://i.ibb.co/mFRBJDDr/staffing.png

Agreed. The widgets we produce, that the company and Wall St are interested in, is ASM's. As pilots we want more airframes flying more hours = more pilots needed. Increasing average capacity does zip for pilots unless it's feed by more w/b's.

So..... for us simpletons, would it be accurate to set the seniority Calculator to 3% or is this too optimistic?

Regards

Simpleton