When I ran the Widget calculator someone in their early 40’s would likely top out a slightly above mid level 717 Capt or slight below mid level 737 Capt. 3,500 sounded about right, going maybe 2/3 up the current list.

At 27 you’d be top 100 and top ~2500 for the last 17ish years

well nice. that should mean I get awarded 78 on this vacancy bid. But I highly doubt this is true.

Yep. At DL if you want to see WB Ca you need to be hired by your mid 30s, WB CA with decent seniority, early 30s

do you believe that Al? 10 years to WB CA? A newhire would need appx 11,000 pilots to retire to hold a WB CA position. Do we have 11k retirements in 10 years? That also assumes we don’t park the 777 fleet over the next decade. I think 20-25 years is best case scenario.

This has to be assuming we receive all 40ish 787s on order in a relatively short amount of time and they are not mostly replacements. If not, this is not close to true other than NB CA which is probably pretty close.

yep totally agree. But I’ll still keep it in my bids. But maybe Isom is getting all the 78’s and a new contract. Just have to make it through summer first right? Haha

A year ago I would’ve agreed that the 787s will be replacements for the 777s but now I think the odds are better they’ll be growth aircraft which will lower the G4 captain plug seniority

Here's the problem with all these seniority calculators that people don't understand. They're dumb technology. They only account for age of pilots and current fleet number as of the day they are used. Sure at the standard lapse rate of pilots making it to 65 and the current fleet, someone in their 40s may only make it to 3500-4500 on a list of 14000-ish (top 25%), but what if I told you that by the time they get there there will be over 20,000 pilots on that list (top 15%) and hundreds more aircraft than today? Also many pilots aren't going to make it to mandatory retirement age whatever that ends up being, none of which is accounted for.