Originally Posted by AAL24 (Post 3444253)

do you believe that Al? 10 years to WB CA? A newhire would need appx 11,000 pilots to retire to hold a WB CA position. Do we have 11k retirements in 10 years? That also assumes we don’t park the 777 fleet over the next decade. I think 20-25 years is best case scenario.

Originally Posted by AAL24 (Post 3444253)

do you believe that Al? 10 years to WB CA? A newhire would need appx 11,000 pilots to retire to hold a WB CA position. Do we have 11k retirements in 10 years? That also assumes we don’t park the 777 fleet over the next decade. I think 20-25 years is best case scenario.

Originally Posted by Margaritaville (Post 3444317)

Here's the problem with all these seniority calculators that people don't understand. They're dumb technology. They only account for age of pilots and current fleet number as of the day they are used. Sure at the standard lapse rate of pilots making it to 65 and the current fleet, someone in their 40s may only make it to 3500-4500 on a list of 14000-ish (top 25%), but what if I told you that by the time they get there there will be over 20,000 pilots on that list (top 15%) and hundreds more aircraft than today? Also many pilots aren't going to make it to mandatory retirement age whatever that ends up being, none of which is accounted for.

Originally Posted by AllYourBaseAreB (Post 3444660)

Why would anyone think a calculator would be able to hyper-accurately predict the future by accounting for unknown variables….?

Originally Posted by Margaritaville (Post 3444802)

That's what I'd like to know. Because I keep reading "Don't go to ABC air line because you'll only retire at Y,YYY but at XYZ airline you'll retire at X,XXX. You may as well buy a lotto ticket. The legacies are basically the same once you get behind the door. Go to the one that has a base where you want to live and be done with it. Trying to game the system to get a few numbers ahead is a waste of time. Take it from someone who is nearing the end of his career and endured the brunt of the Lost Decade. Your career won't turn out as you expected. Take what you can get.

Originally Posted by ImSoSuss (Post 3444825)

How many people younger than you is the important part and really the only relevant metric. The part that is worthless is "I can hold CA on XXX aircraft in XXXX". Too many outside variables will change that. However one thing that will never change is the amount of people hired before you that are younger than you.

Originally Posted by Margaritaville (Post 3444827)

That's true. Which is why everyone hired in their 40s and later need to temper their expectations. It's unlikely they will ever see WB CA. Too many younger people ahead of them. But that's okay. They can still make NB CA in just a few years and make way more than wherever they came from (LCC/regional).

Originally Posted by Margaritaville (Post 3444802)

The legacies are basically the same once you get behind the door.

Originally Posted by AAL24 (Post 3444836)

That might have been the case 30 years ago, definitely not today.