American interviews and class dates
11-05-2013, 05:58 PM
#221
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Joined APC: Jun 2010
Position: Doing what you do, for less.
Posts: 1,792
Originally Posted by TRZ06
Nice to hear being one of those gone in ten, but there's plenty of talk about a 65 plus some retirement now. Whether it be 67 or 70 
but at some point we'll either be retired or dead, hopefully in that order!
but at some point we'll either be retired or dead, hopefully in that order!
Its not going to happen.
11-05-2013, 11:28 PM
#222
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Joined APC: Dec 2005
Posts: 8,898
Originally Posted by ghilis101
If air traffic is supposed to double in the next decade or 2, won't they be forced to grow? Unless they decide to put wide bodies on everything, Emirates-style
FAA forecast from FY12
This year’s forecast predicts that the industry will grow from 731 million passengers in 2011 to 1.2 billion in 2032.
Cumulatively, air traffic growth for U.S. carriers–measured by revenue passenger miles–is expected to rise by more than 90 percent in the next 20 years. It grew by 3.5 percent in 2011. Airport tower operations are expected to increase by 23 percent. Also, the number of aircraft handled at FAA en-route centers, which separate high altitude traffic, is expected to increase by 50 percent.
FAA forecast from FY12
This year’s forecast predicts that the industry will grow from 731 million passengers in 2011 to 1.2 billion in 2032.
Cumulatively, air traffic growth for U.S. carriers–measured by revenue passenger miles–is expected to rise by more than 90 percent in the next 20 years. It grew by 3.5 percent in 2011. Airport tower operations are expected to increase by 23 percent. Also, the number of aircraft handled at FAA en-route centers, which separate high altitude traffic, is expected to increase by 50 percent.
11-06-2013, 04:00 AM
#223
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Joined APC: Oct 2005
Position: MD-11 FO
Posts: 2,180
Originally Posted by ShyGuy
I agree with others on shrinking to efficiency and not expanding. Just look at other legacy mergers. Delta/NWA combined about 12,600 pilots and currently 11,800 and just starting to hire finally. United/Continental combined has approx. 12,500 pilots and they currently are the same size Delta/NWA was when they had just merged. AA has 9900 on the list and US Airways about 5,100. That's 15,000 pilots over two lists (or three lists with the West/East). Going forward as the merger realizes efficiencies and synergies, you will see a hub or two get cut. Delta/NWA said they'd keep everything, but in the end MEM and CVG basically got gutted. AA/US will probably follow suit and ditch common routes/close hubs and any inefficiencies out of the system. 15,000 pilots is on the much higher side even with retirements coming up. Best case scenario would be as they downsize (rightsize) the merger, the retirements will be enough to meet the synergies required.
11-06-2013, 05:09 AM
#224
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Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,216
Total on the list is misleading. Bodies on property is more important. 15,000 guys on the list, 12,000+ flying. In 10 yrs if they're 15,000 flying is the growth 0% or 25%?
DL/NW merger didn't occur during airline 'up' cycle so using their manning as a basis for the impact on AA/US isn't a 1:1 relationship. If your numbers are correct they're down approx. 6%(2009-2013). Will AA/US be down 6% in 4 yrs??? IMO, at this point of the cycle, the numbers will be up from 4 yrs from now.
DL/NW merger didn't occur during airline 'up' cycle so using their manning as a basis for the impact on AA/US isn't a 1:1 relationship. If your numbers are correct they're down approx. 6%(2009-2013). Will AA/US be down 6% in 4 yrs??? IMO, at this point of the cycle, the numbers will be up from 4 yrs from now.
11-06-2013, 05:11 AM
#225
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Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,216
Originally Posted by ShyGuy
Delta/NWA said they'd keep everything, but in the end MEM and CVG basically got gutted. AA/US will probably follow suit and ditch common routes/close hubs and any inefficiencies out of the system.
11-06-2013, 06:12 AM
#226
La Familia Delta
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: B-717 FO / C-17 AC
Posts: 2,467
Both AA and US are hiring in big numbers, yet they don't have a lot of age 65 retirements until about 3 or 4 years from now. So including new rest rules, basically, the company is growing, not shrinking,
11-06-2013, 07:01 AM
#227
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Joined APC: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,166
Originally Posted by Sliceback
How many departures did MEM and CVG have? Which AA/US hubs are of a similar size?
11-06-2013, 07:13 AM
#228
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Joined APC: Jan 2007
Posts: 736
Originally Posted by CanoePilot
MEM, CVG and STL are all dead and dying cities with negative growth. They also had better hubs less than an hour away. Only base that could shut down in this merger is phx and that may happen without a merger anyway.
11-06-2013, 07:17 AM
#229
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Joined APC: Jul 2012
Posts: 737
I can't believe guys are upset if they aren't in the top 10% in 15 years. Sheesh. Most of us were in the bottom 50% for 20 years.
The simple fact remains that if the merger proceeds smoothly, there will be scads of retirements very quickly, and new hires will see a CA seat a LOT faster than most of us did in our current career progression.
"Hello, this is AA Human Resources. We are pleased to offer you employment as a pilot for a January class date!"
"Uh, no, I ran the numbers, and I won't be a 777 CA in 8 years. Thanks but no thanks."
The simple fact remains that if the merger proceeds smoothly, there will be scads of retirements very quickly, and new hires will see a CA seat a LOT faster than most of us did in our current career progression.
"Hello, this is AA Human Resources. We are pleased to offer you employment as a pilot for a January class date!"
"Uh, no, I ran the numbers, and I won't be a 777 CA in 8 years. Thanks but no thanks."
11-06-2013, 07:28 AM
#230
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Joined APC: Apr 2013
Position: A320 FO
Posts: 596
Originally Posted by ForeverFO
I can't believe guys are upset if they aren't in the top 10% in 15 years. Sheesh. Most of us were in the bottom 50% for 20 years.
The simple fact remains that if the merger proceeds smoothly, there will be scads of retirements very quickly, and new hires will see a CA seat a LOT faster than most of us did in our current career progression.
"Hello, this is AA Human Resources. We are pleased to offer you employment as a pilot for a January class date!"
"Uh, no, I ran the numbers, and I won't be a 777 CA in 8 years. Thanks but no thanks."
The simple fact remains that if the merger proceeds smoothly, there will be scads of retirements very quickly, and new hires will see a CA seat a LOT faster than most of us did in our current career progression.
"Hello, this is AA Human Resources. We are pleased to offer you employment as a pilot for a January class date!"
"Uh, no, I ran the numbers, and I won't be a 777 CA in 8 years. Thanks but no thanks."
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