67 and 70 is a selfish pipedream of a few very vocal and misguided individuals.

Its not going to happen.

 

I agree with others on shrinking to efficiency and not expanding. Just look at other legacy mergers. Delta/NWA combined about 12,600 pilots and currently 11,800 and just starting to hire finally. United/Continental combined has approx. 12,500 pilots and they currently are the same size Delta/NWA was when they had just merged. AA has 9900 on the list and US Airways about 5,100. That's 15,000 pilots over two lists (or three lists with the West/East). Going forward as the merger realizes efficiencies and synergies, you will see a hub or two get cut. Delta/NWA said they'd keep everything, but in the end MEM and CVG basically got gutted. AA/US will probably follow suit and ditch common routes/close hubs and any inefficiencies out of the system. 15,000 pilots is on the much higher side even with retirements coming up. Best case scenario would be as they downsize (rightsize) the merger, the retirements will be enough to meet the synergies required.

 

Don't you have a safety demo to dance through?

 

Total on the list is misleading. Bodies on property is more important. 15,000 guys on the list, 12,000+ flying. In 10 yrs if they're 15,000 flying is the growth 0% or 25%?

DL/NW merger didn't occur during airline 'up' cycle so using their manning as a basis for the impact on AA/US isn't a 1:1 relationship. If your numbers are correct they're down approx. 6%(2009-2013). Will AA/US be down 6% in 4 yrs??? IMO, at this point of the cycle, the numbers will be up from 4 yrs from now.

 

How many departures did MEM and CVG have? Which AA/US hubs are of a similar size?

 

Both AA and US are hiring in big numbers, yet they don't have a lot of age 65 retirements until about 3 or 4 years from now. So including new rest rules, basically, the company is growing, not shrinking,

 

MEM, CVG and STL are all dead and dying cities with negative growth. They also had better hubs less than an hour away. Only base that could shut down in this merger is phx and that may happen without a merger anyway.

 

What do you see happening with PHX then? (Merger or not)

 

I can't believe guys are upset if they aren't in the top 10% in 15 years. Sheesh. Most of us were in the bottom 50% for 20 years.

The simple fact remains that if the merger proceeds smoothly, there will be scads of retirements very quickly, and new hires will see a CA seat a LOT faster than most of us did in our current career progression.

"Hello, this is AA Human Resources. We are pleased to offer you employment as a pilot for a January class date!"

"Uh, no, I ran the numbers, and I won't be a 777 CA in 8 years. Thanks but no thanks."

 

Ha! (10 carrots)