benji2012

July is what I meant....thanks for the update. Hopefully the emails start coming soon for all

Flying101

Completely off the topic question.... does anyone remember whether or not the online app or during F2F any of you were asked about anything in your past? Reason I ask is... In 2007 (Dec) I got in some legal trouble which fortunately was resolved 2008 (March) with a fine. Never the less the original offense is on my record.

Flying101

Does anyone know how many pilots from Envoy, PSA, and Piedmont as per contract have to be in every new hire class? As per Piedmont contract I think it's only 3.

Frip

Boulevard of Broken Dreams

The junior guy on the line now is ~ 9,000 numbers from the junior outlier Group IV Captains.

There are ~ 6,700 retirements forecast over the next 13 years.

That's absent war, pestilence, plague, seniority list integrations, The NIC, recessions, Cabotage, Age 67, etc., etc.

Frip

"But, but... They tokd me I'd be a Captain in 5 years...."

They told everybody that

Sliceback

How many Group IV CA's are there today? How many will there be in 4.5 years?

No one's predicting five year upgrades. Seven of eight years? Nine at the most? That's everyone's predictions. Granted a change to 67/68 could slow it but the train (retirements) is already in the tunnel.

Next 13 years, included this year, is more like 9,100 retirements from both sides. Union document from 1 Nov 2014 shows about 6,500 through 2024. Add three more years and it reaches 9,100 ish.

Frip

The total group is ~ 15,000

Less your ~ 9,100 over 13 years leaves the pilot comimg on line today at ~ 6,000

Still a long ways from the ~ 1,300 ish junior outlier Group 4 CA.

There are about 450 on the AA side now. Maybe, what, 120 on the US side?

Even if they don't park one, and take delivery of 40 more, there might be ~ 800. Seniority numbers to ~ 2,000? For the junior outlier dudes?

Today's noob is still 4,000 numbers away at 13 years.

The five year thing was a joke. Everyone claims to have been told that, except those who actually did it.

Sliceback

Today Group IV CA totals total 435 +185 (LUS).
By 2020 the estimate is 1100(+?).

Junior CA on the AA side is 1436. New number will be about 1330 in a month(new seniority list).

Increase of appox. 80% in Group IV a/c by 2020. Depending upon what assumptions you make about bidding patterns you'll end up with Group IV CA 1850(stove piping additional Group IV CA jobs) to 3100 (assumes current ration of LAA Group IV CA jobs to junior Group IV CA ration stays unchanged).

Reduction in Group III CA jobs, as well as pay gap and increased bidding options, is how guys are coming up with seniority #2000, 2200, or perhaps 2500 as the junior Group IV CA in 2020.

Sliceback

SLI committee documents have the data. Total approx. 15,000 on the list, Approx. 13,000 jobs.

13,000 - 9,000 = 4,000 in 13 years. Add in two additional years of retirements and the earliest new hires might be down around 2,000. Compare with the Group IV CA job totals and that's how the union number crunchers are predicting 15 yr LOS, or earlier, Group IV CA's.

Frip

Ok,

If all the stars align just so, there may be a few 15 yr G4 Captains in 15 years.

A guy just a class senior to me was a 1011 f/o for 4.5 of our first 5 years.

He was the only one. It was nearly ten years before the rest of us got close to that, and then only for a few months.

Group 4 CA at 13 yrs is not a realistic expectation for the typical 2015 hire, at least not very many of them.

This years' hires will have good careers. Maybe even great ones. Especially if they are young.

I have just seen a lot of folks disillusioned and disappointed and bitter over too-optimistic career "projections".

Reality, and recognizing the outliers and risks, is better for folks.

Who here thinks we go 15 years without a recession, war, cabotage, retirement age increase or other career-changing external event?

AA parked an entire fleet of 707's one week.

It was 5 years before they ordered replacements.

I know... Couldn't happen.