Sliceback

Using the junior CA's relative seniority for the total seniority list, and how many retirements are in each year in the 2030's, 2040's, and 2050's, DFW 777 CA would be around 2037 for a G4 Captain. PHL G4 would be in 2033 for someone hired today.

G4 fleet is projected to grow by approx. 15% in the next several years. Assuming it stays frozen(doubtful) G4 CA will be closer to 1500 and PHL G4 CA would be 3100. MIA is 2000 and JFK is 1700. Find when your seniority progression crosses those numbers and that might be a SWAG for your future G4 slot.

I suspect PHL G4 CA will go more senior in the years ahead. The difference between LAA G4 and LUS G4 seniority (^) is why. LUS guys apparently don't value G4 flying as much as LAA guys do. Perhaps the difference in pay didn't make the reduction in relative seniority but what used to be approx. a $39K difference (LUS pre merger) between G2 and G4 has become $70K+ difference. An additional $30K will change some people's behavior.

Sliceback

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Preceding post had the G4 CA projections based on current manning and the retirement years of the younger guys.



Using Jan 2017 data here are the post 2045 retirements (not perfect data but close estimates) -



2045 - 103

2046 - 110

2047 - 68

2048 - 56

2049 - 49

2050 - 13

2051+ 23





Since 1/1/17 there's been 48 new hires 35 or younger so there's 189 (+/-) 2048 and later retirees. Assuming an even dispersion of 2047 retirees throughout the year and you'd be around 220 at retirement??

All estimates and the accuracy isn't guaranteed.

mainlineAF

Gotta remember those numbers slice throws up are based on retirement numbers and us keeping a similar fleet size/mix. You start projecting out much more than a few years on what seniority it will take to hold this or that and it's really just an educated guess. Bc airlines.

viper548

I was hired in June 2014 and based off of retirements only and current junior person I should be able to hold B-777 FO in early 2020, B-737 CA in late 2020 and Group 4 CA mid 2033. I have about 1300 junior to me. I'd guess a new hire today would be looking at 777 FO in late 2021, 737 CA in early 2022 and group 4 CA in 2035 or 2036.
Since the integration the trend has been for those position to be going more junior than they had been.

flyinawa

When I got hired, the captain members of my class were enjoying a seven year narrow body upgrade. My fellow newhires and I were assured that due to retirements combined with aircraft orders, we would NEED to upgrade in 5 years. As a 32 year old, I was excited at the idea of the left seat before 40.

Today, as a 45 year old who is in the 72% of FOs in my base, I accept the idea that NOTHING is guaranteed and things change. I have no regrets and only minor disappointments with my career. Much due to the fact I love most of the guys I work with. With that in mind, there are still things that really grind on me. They include, but are not limited to:

• Listening to captains tell me what a great career I'm going to have in spite of the fact they upgraded in their 20's and 30's.
• Being told it's OK to be in the right seat because I make more than THEY made as captains 3 years ago
• Being told I'll upgrade after I've "paid my dues" in the right seat.
• Listening to ANYONE complain about how an arbitrator didn't give someone what they were entitled to. *(except the TWA guys, who in MY opinion have gotten the mother of shaft jobs)

(Edit) My point is, try to get to on with company that you want to work for, for quality of life reasons. Everyone is going to make plenty of money so don't get caught up chasing the all mighty dollar. Finally, accept the fact that 10 years from now the landscape may be entirely different.

LIOG41

retirement numbers...that's a sure thing and the numbers are huge. That will help keep things flowing unlike we've seen for a long time.

full of luv

Unless the airline shrinks.......

NOTHING in this industry is guaranteed, that is the only guarantee.

jacjetlag

N/B Capt. used to be the #2 best job at AA.
+++++
W/B F/O is now....it all boils down to money and time off. Same money as N/B Capt. but more time off.

R57 relay

Are you factoring in the seniority whack the LUS guys took when you say that we don't value group 4 as much?

aa73

I think that's a perspective thing.

I am a relatively new NB CA. The fun factor is 10 times the amount I ever had as a WB F/O, and regarding time off, since they don't use me every reserve day, I end up with similar days off as a WB F/O (any reserve day on Long Call where I'm not used, I consider it a day off since I just sit at home.)

Also, I don't have to sit through 10+ hours on A/P of long haul crossing 5 times zones into 3rd world countries. I get to do some fun 2-3 short legs a day with many TOs/Landings while staying domestic (close to home), which is one of the many reasons I signed up to do this job - when at work I want to fly and the ups & downs makes it fun and challenging.

Since I have a little leftover vacation hours that cannot be used for an entire week, I can pay myself 10hrs on top of reserve guarantee that greatly supplements the already awesome CA pay check.

Combining all that with sitting NB left seat is the absolute best job I've had in my airline career by a long shot.

Just one man's perspective. I'm probably in the minority but that's just me.