Riverside

Well, when you leave key words out. Then yeah...

gatorhater

Since a donkey has never been responsible for a tourist death at Grand Canyon, and only a couple staff deaths, and since thousands of people have died in airplanes, I’d call that stat utter BS. Yes, I’ve read the book about Grand Canyon deaths.

woog315

Commercial pilot is the 3rd deadliest job out there. Aviation is very safe, but when you are flying 13-20 days out of the month for decades of your life, your odds of being involved in something bad increase exponentially. There are multiple studies confirming this (simply number of job related fatalities per 100k jobs). Logging and commercial fishing are the two more dangerous jobs as far as mortality goes.

https://insurify.com/insights/not-sa...angerous-jobs/

80ktsClamp

So much of it is the crap we do getting to the big show jobs. That's where the real danger is.

veewan

To get back on topic, I guess the point is part 121 flying has a very good safety record. A few factors that contribute to this include the general professionalism of the individuals flying (doing it for a living regardless of whether you think the person has tact), the regulations (many written in blood), training, technology (TCAS, GPWS etc), CRM, ATC.... the list goes on and on.

All that aside the business is risk mitigation management. With all the focus on safety, the risk is very low but it's still there.

What is concerning about this accident though is the rumors surrounding hiring practices/training, people with questionable training records being put into planes increasing that risk. From what I've heard the FO involved in the accident failed upgrade at his regional, the regional pushed back on the LCA and she told them they could have her check airman letter instead. Eventually they accepted her decision. Then the guy went to Atlas, had difficulties in training, was sent home but eventually brought back.

wrxpilot

Exactly. 121 is really an entirely different category. The shady crap I did when starting out in shady south FL 135 doesn’t even compare. Throw in the dangerous AK operators, and the stats are going to be seriously skewed.

captjns

Your claims are unsubstantiated. You’ve been called out on the “ABX Washing out new hires” thread. Your post is inappropriate and without merit.

You are doing nothing short of creating a SH!T STORM... or tantamount to being a troll.

rickair7777

Actually the odds do not necessarily go up with time at all. That is mathematical nonsense. The odds would stay the same, or change in response to changes in the condition of the system. But if the system doesn't change (hypothetically) the odds don't change. Past results have ZERO bearing on current odds statistically speaking. Even though emotionally it might seem that way.

Recently we have seen some system changes... lots of new pilots and fast promotion to CA in the US. Addition of an apparently faulty new type added to the global fleet.

It might be *possible* that an extended accident-free period with all else being equal *might* drive up complacency and therefor accident risk. But that's not an automatic, you'd have to show me some non-circumstantial evidence.




Ever been around donkeys at the canyon? They actually made me nervous. Long drops, no guard rails.

nuball5

Heard the same but it was new-hire training at the regional not upgrade. This regional airline does have a reputation for being very tough I’ll say that from being employed there for several years.

gatorhater

I’ve hiked to the river several times, follow the directions of the wrangler (stand next to the big wall and away from the drop) and they’re harmless. Smell bad, muck up the trail, look miserable to ride, all true. Dangerous, not so much.

Now back to the topic😉