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Old 02-05-2023 | 03:09 PM
  #19831  
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A new hire may never see upgrade here. We have over 1500 FO’s.

Let’s face it. We only upgrade a handful during the year, and shut down in the 4th Qtr.

Easy math.
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Old 02-05-2023 | 03:53 PM
  #19832  
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Originally Posted by boeingdvr
A new hire may never see upgrade here. We have over 1500 FO’s.

Let’s face it. We only upgrade a handful during the year, and shut down in the 4th Qtr.

Easy math.
Thats quite alright as they rotate in/out with the 500/year that leave.
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Old 02-05-2023 | 04:49 PM
  #19833  
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From: Whale FO
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Originally Posted by boeingdvr
A new hire may never see upgrade here. We have over 1500 FO’s.

Let’s face it. We only upgrade a handful during the year, and shut down in the 4th Qtr.

Easy math.
Handful? Like few hundred a year in widebodies. That's quite a bit more than a handful. And it looked like we did not "shut down" in the 4th quarter. Do you even look at the vacancy emails?

People have been saying this same thing for as long as this thread has been going (10+ years), and it hasn't happened yet.
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Old 02-06-2023 | 02:08 AM
  #19834  
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Of those 1500 FOs, there are a few “career FOs” that will likely never see the left seat, lots of FOs still bypass the upgrade, a few live abroad and don’t want to upgrade because they won’t be able to bid lines that allow them to keep living abroad comfortably. The average attrition remains 25-40/month, 5-10 retires a month, and 8-20 upgrades/month, I would say as long as we don’t lose an entire fleet, those upgrade time will remain fairly accurate
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Old 02-06-2023 | 01:33 PM
  #19835  
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I recently received an invitation to do an initial interview with Atlas. I applied to the pathway to success program as I only have 1500 hours of GA time. They seem a few weeks out even for the preliminary interview. What can I expect as far as the interview timeline and process if moved forward in the process? How many interviews are there?
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Old 02-06-2023 | 07:50 PM
  #19836  
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Originally Posted by 160to4
Of those 1500 FOs, there are a few “career FOs” that will likely never see the left seat, lots of FOs still bypass the upgrade, a few live abroad and don’t want to upgrade because they won’t be able to bid lines that allow them to keep living abroad comfortably. The average attrition remains 25-40/month, 5-10 retires a month, and 8-20 upgrades/month, I would say as long as we don’t lose an entire fleet, those upgrade time will remain fairly accurate
There is no significant growth. Except for rare exceptions, it’s FO’s that are leaving. Upgrade times will, IMO, continue to increase and seniority progression for Captains will stagnate.

When I upgraded the upgrade times were around 3 years. They’re now about 5.5 years as I recall and it’s only been 4 years. That’s not a good trend for people looking for an upgrade, or for the junior Captains.
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Old 02-07-2023 | 03:32 AM
  #19837  
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Originally Posted by dera
Handful? Like few hundred a year in widebodies. That's quite a bit more than a handful. And it looked like we did not "shut down" in the 4th quarter. Do you even look at the vacancy emails?

People have been saying this same thing for as long as this thread has been going (10+ years), and it hasn't happened yet.
“A few hundred a year in upgrades. That’s laughable. The last 2 vacancies had zero on the 767 and a handful on the 77/74.

Like it or not, our upgrade is trending in the wrong direction.
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Old 02-07-2023 | 07:46 AM
  #19838  
In a land of unicorns
 
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From: Whale FO
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Originally Posted by boeingdvr
“A few hundred a year in upgrades. That’s laughable. The last 2 vacancies had zero on the 767 and a handful on the 77/74.

Like it or not, our upgrade is trending in the wrong direction.
Latest vacancy had 12 747/777 upgrades. Previous vacancy had 12. One before that had 18 WB upgrades. Averaging around 200-250 a year. What is laughable?
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Old 02-07-2023 | 09:12 AM
  #19839  
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Originally Posted by dera
Latest vacancy had 12 747/777 upgrades. Previous vacancy had 12. One before that had 18 WB upgrades. Averaging around 200-250 a year. What is laughable?
There is a big difference between vacancies and upgrades. Oftentimes vacancies in base are filled by CAs moving from one base to another.
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Old 02-07-2023 | 09:25 AM
  #19840  
In a land of unicorns
 
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From: Whale FO
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Originally Posted by RyeMex
There is a big difference between vacancies and upgrades. Oftentimes vacancies in base are filled by CAs moving from one base to another.
And so far they have seemed to backfill almost all of them. That is why for the past 5 years the jr upgrade times have stayed very consistent.
That is also why there were 4 767 CA upgrades in 2023-01 vacancy award, even though there were no vacancies for 767 CA. And why there were 5 ANC 747 CA upgrade awards, even though there were no 747CA ANC vacancies.
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