I was actually going to say the opposite. That might be true if people were sticking around here as a career gig, but with the current movement, I don't see 15+ being accurate...

I agree...15+ years to upgrade is not likely, I think it'll be about half that.

If every junior FO leaves it doesn't increase upgrade time. 1000 pilots now. 517 is the junior Captain. 30 retirements a year. I'm not good at math but that's a long time to upgrade. Assuming no growth of course.

That assumes the only attrition is retirements and junior FOs. It might be a fairly long upgrade, but I think 15+ is rather unrealistic.

That is all I was trying to say, NightIP...nothing as complicated as other scenarios above.

We're not shrinking ... yet. If you look at the vacancy bids, we're actually up a few numbers since the beginning of the year, despite losing almost 50 pilots thus far. Attrition is definitely up, we lost 53 pilots in all of last year, and most likely it'll get worse before it gets better. Clearly we're understaffed with the unstoppable flood of open time emails, but that's also due to a large increase in block hours and pulling a BCF out of the desert. If we get more airframes, maybe a couple more 767-300Fs or especially the long-rumored 777, they'll really be screwed. I think they're behind the curve on the 767, but it looks like other than the handful released so far, they won't let anyone else go until late this year, at best.

Upgrade times are not a good indication of anything. They can go from fast and furious to furloughs/infinity in a heartbeat. But keep in mind Atlas has increased in size tremendously in a short period of time, something like 40% of the list has been added in the past 5-8 years.

The numbers don't really add up on the new list. I count two guys who are past their retirement age, 1 who retires today and 1 guy I know of who's working for Delta. I'm believing the 1009 number on the previous vacancy award which correctly left off my buddy at Delta.

I am hoping that this is the new math:
Is it better to have 100 6-8 year FOs, or 60 1-4 year FOs, and you were forced to park 2 airframes in the desert for lack of crew.

Going forward, it will get more and more difficult to find new pilots to come here, than it has in the past 10+ years, in my opinion.

That is my point exactly. The LARGE number of hiring over the last few years will dramatically affect upgrade time for new hires now.

Junior captain is just over 500 of 1000. The vast majority of the 500 FOs are relatively young and, if they stay, will have a long time to retirement, some have 36 years left now. So, a new hire today would be looking at 16-17 years to upgrade based ONLY on retirements (assuming 30/yr.)

For every 30 or so CURRENT pilots who leave for reasons other than retirement, time to upgrade would decrease by a year. So, if 300 leave, then, yes, upgrades would remain at about the seven year point. If 200 leave, it would be about 10 years, 100 leaving equals 12-13 years.

Growth would also help to keep the times at the shorter end, but finding pilots to staff may become a limiting issue.

I'm not trying to forecast what WILL take place, just providing information to be used or discarded as one sees fit, but to tell a new hire upgrades are at seven years is a disservice.

I don't think it'll be difficult to find people... If I were an RJ Captain with 1000 PIC I'd come to Atlas for the type in the hopes that it'd complete my resume. On 2nd year pay I'd be making what I was making and it'd be a great place to hang out until a major came calling... That being said the days of 2nd year 747 pay might be over...