Should we be concerned for our future?
#1011
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2009
Posts: 741
Some thoughts, somewhat connected.
1. I mentionedthis in a post earlier on. Russian forces can defeat Ukraine but are likely unable to conquer her. An insurgency that has the support of the People can almost always outlast a foreign invader/occupier.I believe RickAir mentioned the exception of using genocide/total destruction. I will grant that exception, but it takes either a level of brutality that would be difficult to command, or a vastly smaller population that i don't think fits Ukraine.
Someone else was dismissive of this likely hood, describing it as being able to only harass.
Consider this: If memory serves (too lazy to check my figures) at our peak we had half a million US soldiers in South Viet Nam plus Korean, Thai, Australian and of course ARVN. We never came close to controlling the countryside. We also never controlled the initiative of contact between ground forces. Westmoreland understood logistics and the use of lethal military power. He never understood Political or Spiritual Power.
Ukraine (though very different geography/climate) is vastly larger than So. Viet Nam.. Is Putin willing to provide an occupying force large enough and long enough to eventually convince Ukrainians that they are willing to once again be Russian vassals? This is the land of The Cossacks. The land of the Khmelnytsky revolt of Fire and Sword that split them from Polish rule. They will use this history of resistance and success to fortify and inspire. To uplift the hearts.
2. We are soon to be in planting season. How much farmland will be under cultivation in Ukraine this year? I assume not much.
How much of the world grain supply comes from Ukraine? It used to be quite a bit. 2022 might be a bleak year.
As a correlation I will add a quote from an introductory speech that Putin gave 21st of October, 2021 at the Valdai Club Conference. Just 5 months ago. "...furthermore, a number of countries and even entire regions are regularly hit by food crises. We will probably discuss this later, but there is every reason to believe that this crisis will become worse in the near future and MAY REACH EXTREME FORMS." (emphasis mine)
You can find this speech and the subsequent interview/discussion on line. It obviously has the limitations/faults of being a translation. If you speak Russian (i do not), it is accompanied by 3:30 Utube video.
3. I was going to comment on the fake news/manipulation of opinions and how we amplify it. Also the schizophrenic political views that are employed to simultaneously hold conflicting history, conclusions and past memory.
Too much for one post.
1. I mentionedthis in a post earlier on. Russian forces can defeat Ukraine but are likely unable to conquer her. An insurgency that has the support of the People can almost always outlast a foreign invader/occupier.I believe RickAir mentioned the exception of using genocide/total destruction. I will grant that exception, but it takes either a level of brutality that would be difficult to command, or a vastly smaller population that i don't think fits Ukraine.
Someone else was dismissive of this likely hood, describing it as being able to only harass.
Consider this: If memory serves (too lazy to check my figures) at our peak we had half a million US soldiers in South Viet Nam plus Korean, Thai, Australian and of course ARVN. We never came close to controlling the countryside. We also never controlled the initiative of contact between ground forces. Westmoreland understood logistics and the use of lethal military power. He never understood Political or Spiritual Power.
Ukraine (though very different geography/climate) is vastly larger than So. Viet Nam.. Is Putin willing to provide an occupying force large enough and long enough to eventually convince Ukrainians that they are willing to once again be Russian vassals? This is the land of The Cossacks. The land of the Khmelnytsky revolt of Fire and Sword that split them from Polish rule. They will use this history of resistance and success to fortify and inspire. To uplift the hearts.
2. We are soon to be in planting season. How much farmland will be under cultivation in Ukraine this year? I assume not much.
How much of the world grain supply comes from Ukraine? It used to be quite a bit. 2022 might be a bleak year.
As a correlation I will add a quote from an introductory speech that Putin gave 21st of October, 2021 at the Valdai Club Conference. Just 5 months ago. "...furthermore, a number of countries and even entire regions are regularly hit by food crises. We will probably discuss this later, but there is every reason to believe that this crisis will become worse in the near future and MAY REACH EXTREME FORMS." (emphasis mine)
You can find this speech and the subsequent interview/discussion on line. It obviously has the limitations/faults of being a translation. If you speak Russian (i do not), it is accompanied by 3:30 Utube video.
3. I was going to comment on the fake news/manipulation of opinions and how we amplify it. Also the schizophrenic political views that are employed to simultaneously hold conflicting history, conclusions and past memory.
Too much for one post.
#1012
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Posts: 963
This. Ukraine is the breadbasket of Europe. Wheat is going bonkers. Imagine if war broke out here in the great plains. Feds raiding the Mormon grain stores in Utah. Police coming to your house, confiscating your food, and arresting you for hoarding. Boooooo. Gaaaaaaa. Loooooooo ¡!¡!¡!¡!¡!
#1013
A little historical background
From the CIA World Facebook:
Ukraine was the center of the first eastern Slavic state, Kyivan Rus, which during the 10th and 11th centuries was the largest and most powerful state in Europe. Weakened by internecine quarrels and Mongol invasions, Kyivan Rus was incorporated into the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and eventually into the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. The cultural and religious legacy of Kyivan Rus laid the foundation for Ukrainian nationalism through subsequent centuries. A new Ukrainian state, the Cossack Hetmanate, was established during the mid-17th century after an uprising against the Poles. Despite continuous Muscovite pressure, the Hetmanate managed to remain autonomous for well over 100 years. During the latter part of the 18th century, most Ukrainian ethnographic territory was absorbed by the Russian Empire. Following the collapse of czarist Russia in 1917, Ukraine achieved a short-lived period of independence (1917-20), but was reconquered and endured a brutal Soviet rule that engineered two forced famines (1921-22 and 1932-33) in which over 8 million died. In World War II, German and Soviet armies were responsible for 7 to 8 million more deaths. Although Ukraine achieved independence in 1991 with the dissolution of the USSR, democracy and prosperity remained elusive as the legacy of state control and endemic corruption stalled efforts at economic reform, privatization, and civil liberties.
A peaceful mass protest referred to as the "Orange Revolution" in the closing months of 2004 forced the authorities to overturn a rigged presidential election and to allow a new internationally monitored vote that swept into power a reformist slate under Viktor YUSHCHENKO. Subsequent internal squabbles in the YUSHCHENKO camp allowed his rival Viktor YANUKOVYCH to stage a comeback in parliamentary (Rada) elections, become prime minister in August 2006, and be elected president in February 2010. In October 2012, Ukraine held Rada elections, widely criticized by Western observers as flawed due to use of government resources to favor ruling party candidates, interference with media access, and harassment of opposition candidates. President YANUKOVYCH's backtracking on a trade and cooperation agreement with the EU in November 2013 - in favor of closer economic ties with Russia - and subsequent use of force against students, civil society activists, and other civilians in favor of the agreement led to a three-month protest occupation of Kyiv's central square. The government's use of violence to break up the protest camp in February 2014 led to all out pitched battles, scores of deaths, international condemnation, a failed political deal, and the president's abrupt departure for Russia. New elections in the spring allowed pro-West president Petro POROSHENKO to assume office in June 2014; he was succeeded by Volodymyr ZELENSKY in May 2019.
1997 boundary delimitation treaty with Belarus remains unratified due to unresolved financial claims, stalling demarcation and reducing border security; delimitation of land boundary with Russia is complete and demarcation began in 2012; the dispute over the boundary between Russia and Ukraine through the Kerch Strait and Sea of Azov is suspended due to the occupation of Crimea by Russia; Ukraine and Moldova signed an agreement officially delimiting their border in 1999, but the border has not been demarcated due to Moldova's difficulties with the break-away region of Transnistria; Moldova and Ukraine operate joint customs posts to monitor transit of people and commodities through Moldova's Transnistria Region, which remains under the auspices of an Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe-mandated peacekeeping mission comprised of Moldovan, Transnistrian, Russian, and Ukrainian troops; the ICJ ruled largely in favor of Romania in its dispute submitted in 2004 over Ukrainian-administered Zmiyinyy/Serpilor (Snake) Island and Black Sea maritime boundary delimitation; Romania opposes Ukraine's reopening of a navigation canal from the Danube border through Ukraine to the Black Sea
Background
Ukraine was the center of the first eastern Slavic state, Kyivan Rus, which during the 10th and 11th centuries was the largest and most powerful state in Europe. Weakened by internecine quarrels and Mongol invasions, Kyivan Rus was incorporated into the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and eventually into the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. The cultural and religious legacy of Kyivan Rus laid the foundation for Ukrainian nationalism through subsequent centuries. A new Ukrainian state, the Cossack Hetmanate, was established during the mid-17th century after an uprising against the Poles. Despite continuous Muscovite pressure, the Hetmanate managed to remain autonomous for well over 100 years. During the latter part of the 18th century, most Ukrainian ethnographic territory was absorbed by the Russian Empire. Following the collapse of czarist Russia in 1917, Ukraine achieved a short-lived period of independence (1917-20), but was reconquered and endured a brutal Soviet rule that engineered two forced famines (1921-22 and 1932-33) in which over 8 million died. In World War II, German and Soviet armies were responsible for 7 to 8 million more deaths. Although Ukraine achieved independence in 1991 with the dissolution of the USSR, democracy and prosperity remained elusive as the legacy of state control and endemic corruption stalled efforts at economic reform, privatization, and civil liberties.
A peaceful mass protest referred to as the "Orange Revolution" in the closing months of 2004 forced the authorities to overturn a rigged presidential election and to allow a new internationally monitored vote that swept into power a reformist slate under Viktor YUSHCHENKO. Subsequent internal squabbles in the YUSHCHENKO camp allowed his rival Viktor YANUKOVYCH to stage a comeback in parliamentary (Rada) elections, become prime minister in August 2006, and be elected president in February 2010. In October 2012, Ukraine held Rada elections, widely criticized by Western observers as flawed due to use of government resources to favor ruling party candidates, interference with media access, and harassment of opposition candidates. President YANUKOVYCH's backtracking on a trade and cooperation agreement with the EU in November 2013 - in favor of closer economic ties with Russia - and subsequent use of force against students, civil society activists, and other civilians in favor of the agreement led to a three-month protest occupation of Kyiv's central square. The government's use of violence to break up the protest camp in February 2014 led to all out pitched battles, scores of deaths, international condemnation, a failed political deal, and the president's abrupt departure for Russia. New elections in the spring allowed pro-West president Petro POROSHENKO to assume office in June 2014; he was succeeded by Volodymyr ZELENSKY in May 2019.
Ethnic groups
Ukrainian 77.8%, Russian 17.3%, Belarusian 0.6%, Moldovan 0.5%, Crimean Tatar 0.5%, Bulgarian 0.4%, Hungarian 0.3%, Romanian 0.3%, Polish 0.3%, Jewish 0.2%, other 1.8% (2001 est.)Languages
Ukrainian (official) 67.5%, Russian (regional language) 29.6%, other (includes small Crimean Tatar-, Moldovan/Romanian-, and Hungarian-speaking minorities) 2.9% (2001 est.); note - in February 2018, the Constitutional Court ruled that 2012 language legislation entitling a language spoken by at least 10% of an oblast's population to be given the status of "regional language" - allowing for its use in courts, schools, and other government institutions - was unconstitutional, thus making the law invalid; Ukrainian remains the country's only official nationwide languageTransnational Issues
Disputes - international
1997 boundary delimitation treaty with Belarus remains unratified due to unresolved financial claims, stalling demarcation and reducing border security; delimitation of land boundary with Russia is complete and demarcation began in 2012; the dispute over the boundary between Russia and Ukraine through the Kerch Strait and Sea of Azov is suspended due to the occupation of Crimea by Russia; Ukraine and Moldova signed an agreement officially delimiting their border in 1999, but the border has not been demarcated due to Moldova's difficulties with the break-away region of Transnistria; Moldova and Ukraine operate joint customs posts to monitor transit of people and commodities through Moldova's Transnistria Region, which remains under the auspices of an Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe-mandated peacekeeping mission comprised of Moldovan, Transnistrian, Russian, and Ukrainian troops; the ICJ ruled largely in favor of Romania in its dispute submitted in 2004 over Ukrainian-administered Zmiyinyy/Serpilor (Snake) Island and Black Sea maritime boundary delimitation; Romania opposes Ukraine's reopening of a navigation canal from the Danube border through Ukraine to the Black Sea
#1014
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2009
Posts: 741
Bit of side info.
Paul Manafort. The campaign manager of the (hopefully) last pro-Russian Ukraine President became the campaign manager of the first pro-Russian American President.
This was not a co-incidence and is deeply intertwined with the current unfolding events.
Paul Manafort. The campaign manager of the (hopefully) last pro-Russian Ukraine President became the campaign manager of the first pro-Russian American President.
This was not a co-incidence and is deeply intertwined with the current unfolding events.
#1015
https://www.transparency.org/en/press/gcb-eu-2021-people-concerned-government-corruption-business-politics-survey-reveals
An excerpt:
Overall, more than five in 10 people believe that big companies often avoid paying taxes, and that bribes or connections are commonly used by businesses to secure contracts.
Almost a third of people think corruption is getting worse in their country, while almost half of them say their government is doing a bad job at tackling corruption. In addition, only 21 per cent of people think that corrupt officials face appropriate repercussions.
Sentiments that governments are not doing enough to combat corruption and the perception that corrupt officials are able to act with impunity negatively affect trust levels in both national governments and EU institutions. Less than half of people in the EU trust their national government. While the EU institutions fared better (at 56 per cent), the rate of trust remains relatively low.
Almost a third of people think corruption is getting worse in their country, while almost half of them say their government is doing a bad job at tackling corruption. In addition, only 21 per cent of people think that corrupt officials face appropriate repercussions.
Sentiments that governments are not doing enough to combat corruption and the perception that corrupt officials are able to act with impunity negatively affect trust levels in both national governments and EU institutions. Less than half of people in the EU trust their national government. While the EU institutions fared better (at 56 per cent), the rate of trust remains relatively low.
#1016
Only the latest bit player in a thousand years of history. Much like key impeachment witness Alexander Vindman on the other side. Lots of people involved with very divided loyalties. One could also make an issue of a politicians son being paid $50k a month to be on the board of a company whose meetings he didn’t attend and whose language he didn’t understand. There are no good guys in these scenarios. Corruption in European politics is as old as Europe itself. Nobody seems to think it’s improving either…
Neither the Nazis nor the western allies interfered much with the old establishment in DE.
#1017
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2014
Posts: 824
Only the latest bit player in a thousand years of history. Much like key impeachment witness Alexander Vindman on the other side. Lots of people involved with very divided loyalties. One could also make an issue of a politicians son being paid $50k a month to be on the board of a company whose meetings he didn’t attend and whose language he didn’t understand. There are no good guys in these scenarios. Corruption in European politics is as old as Europe itself. Nobody seems to think it’s improving either…
https://www.transparency.org/en/press/gcb-eu-2021-people-concerned-government-corruption-business-politics-survey-reveals
An excerpt:
https://www.transparency.org/en/press/gcb-eu-2021-people-concerned-government-corruption-business-politics-survey-reveals
An excerpt:
#1018
Nidal Hasan served honorably for 21 years. Military service is not the measure of loyalty it once was.
#1019
He continues as their advocate to this day:
https://youtu.be/jF2upxeyGUo
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...e-fight-russia
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...russia-attacks
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...hal-free-world
and as far as his Army career, he did indeed serve and get wounded in Iraq but was basically a political officer for over half of it:
Vindman commissioned into the Army in January 1999 after graduating with a bachelor’s degree from Binghamton University, in New York, according to personnel information provided to Army Times by service officials.
He originally joined the infantry branch, serving in South Korea and Germany before deploying to Iraq in September 2004 through September 2005. He was wounded by an improvised explosive device while there in October 2004, but served out the rest of the deployment.
In 2008, Vindman became a foreign area officer for the Army. He served in this role at U.S. embassies in Kiev, Ukraine and Moscow. He also earned a graduate degree from Harvard University around this time.
At one point, he served in Washington, D.C., as a political-military affairs officer for Russia under the chairman of the Joint Chiefs.
While there, he said he authored the principle strategy for managing competition with Russia.
The Army confirmed that prior to his current duties, he served on the Joint Staff at the Pentagon from September 2015 to July 2018.In the summer of 2018, he moved to the National Security Council in the White House.
He originally joined the infantry branch, serving in South Korea and Germany before deploying to Iraq in September 2004 through September 2005. He was wounded by an improvised explosive device while there in October 2004, but served out the rest of the deployment.
In 2008, Vindman became a foreign area officer for the Army. He served in this role at U.S. embassies in Kiev, Ukraine and Moscow. He also earned a graduate degree from Harvard University around this time.
At one point, he served in Washington, D.C., as a political-military affairs officer for Russia under the chairman of the Joint Chiefs.
While there, he said he authored the principle strategy for managing competition with Russia.
The Army confirmed that prior to his current duties, he served on the Joint Staff at the Pentagon from September 2015 to July 2018.In the summer of 2018, he moved to the National Security Council in the White House.
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