It's not so much an FAA thing in particular, but one of overall politics. The pressure on this comes from the ATA and its constituent airlines who are worried about potential lawsuits from over 60 people who retired prior to the rule change. The lawyers(read lobbyists) feel that allowing those over 60 who are still on property to move back up front is a liability in the inevitable lawsuits. You can bet ALPA, APA, IPA, etc feel the same way privately as well. The FAA is trying to lead on this thing to assert it's independence and keep Congress out of their business. To do so effectively means appeasing the interests of those who could oppose the change most effectively, hence a prospective rule. This is also the reason they are stalling on the waiver process, and why most companies are reluctant to help sponsor the waivers.

 

PROSPECTIVE

WordNet - Cite This Source
prospective
adjective1. concerned with or related to the future; "prospective earnings"; "a prospective mother"; "the statute is solely prospective in operation" [ant: retrospective] 2. anticipated for the near future; "the prospective students"; "his prospective bride"


WordNet® 2.1, © 2005 Princeton University

Merriam-Webster's Dictionary of Law - Cite This Source
Main Entry: pro·spec·tive
Pronunciation: pr&-'spek-tiv, 'prä-"spek-
Function: adjective
1 : relating to or effective in the future <a statute's prospective effect>
2 : likely to come about : expected to happen <prospective inability to perform the contract>
3 : likely to be or become <a prospective buyer> —pro·spec·tive·ly adverb
Merriam-Webster's Dictionary of Law, © 1996 Merriam-Webster, Inc.

 

Then, of course, there is this word:

WordNet - Cite This Source unlikely

adjective
1. not likely to be true or to occur or to have occurred; "legislation on the question is highly unlikely"; "an improbable event" [syn: improbable] [ant: likely]
2. has little chance of being the case or coming about; "an unlikely story"; "an unlikely candidate for reelection"; "a butcher is unlikely to preach vegetarianism" [ant: disengage]
3. having a probability too low to inspire belief [syn: improbable]

WordNet® 2.1, © 2005 Princeton University

 

As in "unlikely to be retroactive."

 

For all you DC-8 F/Os out there hired prior to Jan 05, it looks like about 5 727 F/Os will be coming to the right seat of the 8.

 

Here's the 727 F/O bid summary analysis as of 3/24:

DC-8 12
757 8
757Z 8
757 MIA 3
757 ONT 4
A300 13
747-100 4
MD-11 ANC CPT 1
DC-8 CPT 1

That adds up to 54 bodies. It includes the handful of junior 727 F/E's. One 727 F/O with a bid on file has as his single bid choice "727 F/O." Guess he likes surprises. The numbers are based on a seat-of-the-pants guess on what the guy can hold based on his seniority and the choices he made.

 

Did you notice any trends as you compiled these? Did the more senior 72 guys go for the DC8? Or was it more random?

 

Where are the captains going?

 

DC8, 757, A300, couple of strategic down bids one to the Bus and one to the MD.

 

I'm curious, what is a strategic downbid?