MarkThyme

Rumblings about FAA dissatisfaction with ATI's training and rapid expansion, necessitating a pause for time to consolidate experience.

An ABX management team that showed no interest in negotiating for more than four years suddenly came to the table and hammered out an agreement. What changed?

Hiring projections are based on ATI running the Amazon table this year. But no announcement on future Amazon airframes has been made yet.

ABX has a class of six running now, with another class of 6 (possibly 8) scheduled for February, while FO attrition is minimal. Upgrades are continuing.

Add all of those things together and see what you get.

NeverHome

Interesing, never heard anything about the FAA being dissatisfied with ATIs training. Maybe, but that hasn’t been rumored in the pilot ranks.

Maybe at ABX you have not heard about amazon airframes, but there has actually been an announcement as to 2 of them and where they are going.

Moral of the story, if you read it on APC seriously consider the source and always take this with a grain of salt.

point432

And ABX could staff 5 airplanes in a matter of a month. (= How fast could you pump upgrades out and do IOE.) plus, they could probably staff another 5 after that. 800 apps on file and we are turning folks away now. Food for though.

As Hete said, Penny for Penny...and we have that now. ABX costs the same as ATI, blocks out 30 mins early a lot of time, and never really complains. (Jokes aside.)


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wjcandee

Relevant to the discussion about "rumblings from the FAA":

ATI reportedly now has as its POI the guy who was the POI for Atlas/Polar/Southern, and who filed a whistleblower complaint (and testified before Congress) when FAA management took action against him after Atlas complained about him. Atlas said that the problem was his personality and work habits. He said that Atlas was operating unsafely. FAA transferred him to ATI.

ATI is going to be the petri dish in which one sees whether this guy is a great guy who any safe operator would be delighted to have as their POI, and who got railroaded by Atlas because he was exposing safety flaws in their operation that they didn't want to address, or whether he is an unpleasant, lazy, sanctimonious zealot, or whether he is somewhere in between. One thing is probable, however: I would imagine that he is not a "go-along, get-along" kind of person, which isn't a bad thing from a safety perspective.

wjcandee

I will stick my toe in here very-gingerly.


First, as to the Amazon-owned aircraft. It does appear that at least tentative plans have been made for 2 of the Amazon ex-Westjet aircraft to go somewhere other than ABX. The other two haven't been announced in terms of operator.


One interesting data point: despite Amazon having announced that the 7 ex-DL aircraft it recently bought are for 2022, one of them (N1612T) flew from VCV to MEX last night, presumably not for a vacation. Figure 5-6 months for conversion, and she's out by late June or July. In general, Amazon plans for stable growth but then often accelerates its plans, and that may be happening with the DL aircraft.


Second, as to ABX hiring and training, and what it means. I thought it was telling when Corrado expressly said at an investor conference last year that ABX was a very good airline that they were hoping to grow if they could work out the labor situation. The contract came within a few months after that. He's a salesman, and he plainly had something in his head about an opportunity for business. But I wouldn't conflate hiring and training at ABX with some need to provide service to Amazon. DHL might very well be the anticipated growth source, or something else. ABX has been doing a fine job on the DHL international routes. With the absence of international belly space now projected to last for a while, and the new contract, there's no reason to believe that DHL wouldn't be looking to ABX for additional service, particularly if ATSG could provide some metal. That said -- and particularly if Amazon wants to put even more planes in the air this year -- there's no structural reason for Amazon not to consider ABX as a provider.


Third, as to the 767-200s. The December 2018 agreement with Amazon extends the leases on all 12 until 2023, with an option of another 3-year extension, which would push it to 2026. Given the Amazon usage level of about 700 cycles per year, all but two should be able to fly to 2026 and many years beyond then. The two that are questionable are both at ABX, but easily could be replaced with other CAM 767-200s. N795AX will make 2 years no sweat, but will have to tap out before 2026 (47561 cycles as of Aug 2020). The other one is N768AX, which should just make it to 2026, but won't fly beyond that (45237 cycles as of May 2020). [The LOV is 50K cycles.] Unless Amazon's growth slows suddenly, I can't see them taking 12 aircraft out of service in 2023, so I would expect most of those options to be exercised. Add the fact that ATI is planning to repaint most of their 762s (and probably all of them, ultimately), I would bet on repaints for both fleets and continued 762 usage. They're a good interim fit where the 737-800 isn't big enough and the 767-300 is too much airplane.

All this musing and $5 will get you a beverage at Starbucks, of course, but I offer it for what it is.

Released

Received my invite today

TheFoose

Congrats!! Best of luck!

Dream

Congrats!! 🎉 What were your credentials if you don’t mind me asking?

Yuko

Congrats!

Did you also apply during the last window in December?

cantstopwontstp

Was recently told the panel interview asks about alcohol related arrests. I had a minor in possession of alcohol charge over a decade ago that was dismissed and expunged. I know how to address it in the interview as I've dealt with it before. But I'm wondering if this is a show stopper for ATI. Anyone have an HR or recruiter contact who would have insight on this?