UPS: The F word
09-29-2008, 02:01 PM
#11
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Position: Leftof longitudinal
Posts: 1,899
Originally Posted by SLPII
As the economic melt down continues, the possibility of UPS "parking" pilots and jets seems like it's around the corner.
So what are we saying??
100
200
10 percent?
Or sell everything to DHL?
So what are we saying??
100
200
10 percent?
Or sell everything to DHL?
What percentage of reduced volume will trigger your scenario in your opinion?
Realize that the aircraft size limits the ability to park and furlough.
Example: If you fly an A300 in the SDF-ORD-SDF market, realizing that much of the volume that is not time sensitive goes by truck (Yes, UPS is extraordinarily optimized. Only goes on an airplane if it can't make service by truck or team drivers) So for discussion, lets say domestic volume drops 25%.
Does UPS give up 75% of the remaining volume so we can park the A300? We do not have limitless smaller airplanes to substitute, though a few can be made) Which leads to the next question.
Are you thinking like a competitor to Fedex regarding market share and service (product) offerings and realize UPS will not backoff from a Fedex market? (Reason Sideshow made the comment about following Fedex).
Example: UPS decides to unilaterally pull domestic capabilty. This means UPS will have to let go of service market share if Fedex does not match the reduction. UPS has demonstrated thet they try to match Fedex service for service offering. They do very well putting it on trucks long before it goes on an airplane already. Reason they can let trucks go before airplanes in some cases since the later products can still make it by plane, the opposite is never true. This optimization makes it difficult to park airplanes and easier to park trucks. Goes back to first question.
How many furloughs do you believe an OT ban would absorb?
In other words, IPA has already demonstrated that an effective OT ban prevented 100 from being furloughed. (even with all the supervisors)
UPS can talk some high volume customers into different offerings, but not many. If you are a mail order company, customers expect NDA delivery times, if you are contracted to UPS and UPS says no more 0800/1030 delivery times, and your competitor uses Fedex with 0800/1030 delivery times, expect UPS to lose the business altogether. Goes back to question 2.
Nice thing having our friends at Fedex- Kind of like a competitor detente <g>
09-29-2008, 02:09 PM
#12
Banned
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Sep 2008
Posts: 245
Originally Posted by SaltyDog
Some questions since you hypothesize:
What percentage of reduced volume will trigger your scenario in your opinion?
Realize that the aircraft size limits the ability to park and furlough.
Example: If you fly an A300 in the SDF-ORD-SDF market, realizing that much of the volume that is not time sensitive goes by truck (Yes, UPS is extraordinarily optimized. Only goes on an airplane if it can't make service by truck or team drivers) So for discussion, lets say domestic volume drops 25%.
Does UPS give up 75% of the remaining volume so we can park the A300? We do not have limitless smaller airplanes to substitute, though a few can be made) Which leads to the next question.
Are you thinking like a competitor to Fedex regarding market share and service (product) offerings and realize UPS will not backoff from a Fedex market? (Reason Sideshow made the comment about following Fedex).
Example: UPS decides to unilaterally pull domestic capabilty. This means UPS will have to let go of service market share if Fedex does not match the reduction. UPS has demonstrated thet they try to match Fedex service for service offering. They do very well putting it on trucks long before it goes on an airplane already. Reason they can let trucks go before airplanes in some cases since the later products can still make it by plane, the opposite is never true. This optimization makes it difficult to park airplanes and easier to park trucks. Goes back to first question.
How many furloughs do you believe an OT ban would absorb?
In other words, IPA has already demonstrated that an effective OT ban prevented 100 from being furloughed. (even with all the supervisors)
UPS can talk some high volume customers into different offerings, but not many. If you are a mail order company, customers expect NDA delivery times, if you are contracted to UPS and UPS says no more 0800/1030 delivery times, and your competitor uses Fedex with 0800/1030 delivery times, expect UPS to lose the business altogether. Goes back to question 2.
Nice thing having our friends at Fedex- Kind of like a competitor detente <g>
What percentage of reduced volume will trigger your scenario in your opinion?
Realize that the aircraft size limits the ability to park and furlough.
Example: If you fly an A300 in the SDF-ORD-SDF market, realizing that much of the volume that is not time sensitive goes by truck (Yes, UPS is extraordinarily optimized. Only goes on an airplane if it can't make service by truck or team drivers) So for discussion, lets say domestic volume drops 25%.
Does UPS give up 75% of the remaining volume so we can park the A300? We do not have limitless smaller airplanes to substitute, though a few can be made) Which leads to the next question.
Are you thinking like a competitor to Fedex regarding market share and service (product) offerings and realize UPS will not backoff from a Fedex market? (Reason Sideshow made the comment about following Fedex).
Example: UPS decides to unilaterally pull domestic capabilty. This means UPS will have to let go of service market share if Fedex does not match the reduction. UPS has demonstrated thet they try to match Fedex service for service offering. They do very well putting it on trucks long before it goes on an airplane already. Reason they can let trucks go before airplanes in some cases since the later products can still make it by plane, the opposite is never true. This optimization makes it difficult to park airplanes and easier to park trucks. Goes back to first question.
How many furloughs do you believe an OT ban would absorb?
In other words, IPA has already demonstrated that an effective OT ban prevented 100 from being furloughed. (even with all the supervisors)
UPS can talk some high volume customers into different offerings, but not many. If you are a mail order company, customers expect NDA delivery times, if you are contracted to UPS and UPS says no more 0800/1030 delivery times, and your competitor uses Fedex with 0800/1030 delivery times, expect UPS to lose the business altogether. Goes back to question 2.
Nice thing having our friends at Fedex- Kind of like a competitor detente <g>
SD,
Thanks for making me feel a little better.
I guess I can hold off that application to Home Depot, at least for now...It's not fun being near the bottom.
SLPII
Last edited by SLPII; 09-29-2008 at 03:33 PM.
09-29-2008, 02:23 PM
#13
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: MD11 CPT
Posts: 1,077
Originally Posted by SaltyDog
Some questions since you hypothesize:
What percentage of reduced volume will trigger your scenario in your opinion?
Realize that the aircraft size limits the ability to park and furlough.
Example: If you fly an A300 in the SDF-ORD-SDF market, realizing that much of the volume that is not time sensitive goes by truck (Yes, UPS is extraordinarily optimized. Only goes on an airplane if it can't make service by truck or team drivers) So for discussion, lets say domestic volume drops 25%.
Does UPS give up 75% of the remaining volume so we can park the A300? We do not have limitless smaller airplanes to substitute, though a few can be made) Which leads to the next question.
Are you thinking like a competitor to Fedex regarding market share and service (product) offerings and realize UPS will not backoff from a Fedex market? (Reason Sideshow made the comment about following Fedex).
Example: UPS decides to unilaterally pull domestic capabilty. This means UPS will have to let go of service market share if Fedex does not match the reduction. UPS has demonstrated thet they try to match Fedex service for service offering. They do very well putting it on trucks long before it goes on an airplane already. Reason they can let trucks go before airplanes in some cases since the later products can still make it by plane, the opposite is never true. This optimization makes it difficult to park airplanes and easier to park trucks. Goes back to first question.
How many furloughs do you believe an OT ban would absorb?
In other words, IPA has already demonstrated that an effective OT ban prevented 100 from being furloughed. (even with all the supervisors)
UPS can talk some high volume customers into different offerings, but not many. If you are a mail order company, customers expect NDA delivery times, if you are contracted to UPS and UPS says no more 0800/1030 delivery times, and your competitor uses Fedex with 0800/1030 delivery times, expect UPS to lose the business altogether. Goes back to question 2.
Nice thing having our friends at Fedex- Kind of like a competitor detente <g>
What percentage of reduced volume will trigger your scenario in your opinion?
Realize that the aircraft size limits the ability to park and furlough.
Example: If you fly an A300 in the SDF-ORD-SDF market, realizing that much of the volume that is not time sensitive goes by truck (Yes, UPS is extraordinarily optimized. Only goes on an airplane if it can't make service by truck or team drivers) So for discussion, lets say domestic volume drops 25%.
Does UPS give up 75% of the remaining volume so we can park the A300? We do not have limitless smaller airplanes to substitute, though a few can be made) Which leads to the next question.
Are you thinking like a competitor to Fedex regarding market share and service (product) offerings and realize UPS will not backoff from a Fedex market? (Reason Sideshow made the comment about following Fedex).
Example: UPS decides to unilaterally pull domestic capabilty. This means UPS will have to let go of service market share if Fedex does not match the reduction. UPS has demonstrated thet they try to match Fedex service for service offering. They do very well putting it on trucks long before it goes on an airplane already. Reason they can let trucks go before airplanes in some cases since the later products can still make it by plane, the opposite is never true. This optimization makes it difficult to park airplanes and easier to park trucks. Goes back to first question.
How many furloughs do you believe an OT ban would absorb?
In other words, IPA has already demonstrated that an effective OT ban prevented 100 from being furloughed. (even with all the supervisors)
UPS can talk some high volume customers into different offerings, but not many. If you are a mail order company, customers expect NDA delivery times, if you are contracted to UPS and UPS says no more 0800/1030 delivery times, and your competitor uses Fedex with 0800/1030 delivery times, expect UPS to lose the business altogether. Goes back to question 2.
Nice thing having our friends at Fedex- Kind of like a competitor detente <g>
09-29-2008, 03:02 PM
#14
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2007
Position: 757/767
Posts: 579
Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob
...They'll wait to see about DHL before they do anything. If it falls through it's a game changer. In the meantime don't expect anymore heavy lift orders until DHL pans/tanks either.
Training after the 747-classic displacement is moving along, and all the fleets are becoming better manned. The DC8 is fat, and recently even the FE seat is fat. There are 21 more DC8 FE's who will complete training before peak. There are over 30 FE's to be trained after peak. We better get some more work....
09-29-2008, 03:17 PM
#15
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2006
Position: DC-8 756/767
Posts: 1,143
Originally Posted by SaltyDog
Some questions since you hypothesize:
What percentage of reduced volume will trigger your scenario in your opinion?
Realize that the aircraft size limits the ability to park and furlough.
Example: If you fly an A300 in the SDF-ORD-SDF market, realizing that much of the volume that is not time sensitive goes by truck (Yes, UPS is extraordinarily optimized. Only goes on an airplane if it can't make service by truck or team drivers) So for discussion, lets say domestic volume drops 25%.
Does UPS give up 75% of the remaining volume so we can park the A300? We do not have limitless smaller airplanes to substitute, though a few can be made) Which leads to the next question.
Are you thinking like a competitor to Fedex regarding market share and service (product) offerings and realize UPS will not backoff from a Fedex market? (Reason Sideshow made the comment about following Fedex).
Example: UPS decides to unilaterally pull domestic capabilty. This means UPS will have to let go of service market share if Fedex does not match the reduction. UPS has demonstrated thet they try to match Fedex service for service offering. They do very well putting it on trucks long before it goes on an airplane already. Reason they can let trucks go before airplanes in some cases since the later products can still make it by plane, the opposite is never true. This optimization makes it difficult to park airplanes and easier to park trucks. Goes back to first question.
How many furloughs do you believe an OT ban would absorb?
In other words, IPA has already demonstrated that an effective OT ban prevented 100 from being furloughed. (even with all the supervisors)
UPS can talk some high volume customers into different offerings, but not many. If you are a mail order company, customers expect NDA delivery times, if you are contracted to UPS and UPS says no more 0800/1030 delivery times, and your competitor uses Fedex with 0800/1030 delivery times, expect UPS to lose the business altogether. Goes back to question 2.
Nice thing having our friends at Fedex- Kind of like a competitor detente <g>
What percentage of reduced volume will trigger your scenario in your opinion?
Realize that the aircraft size limits the ability to park and furlough.
Example: If you fly an A300 in the SDF-ORD-SDF market, realizing that much of the volume that is not time sensitive goes by truck (Yes, UPS is extraordinarily optimized. Only goes on an airplane if it can't make service by truck or team drivers) So for discussion, lets say domestic volume drops 25%.
Does UPS give up 75% of the remaining volume so we can park the A300? We do not have limitless smaller airplanes to substitute, though a few can be made) Which leads to the next question.
Are you thinking like a competitor to Fedex regarding market share and service (product) offerings and realize UPS will not backoff from a Fedex market? (Reason Sideshow made the comment about following Fedex).
Example: UPS decides to unilaterally pull domestic capabilty. This means UPS will have to let go of service market share if Fedex does not match the reduction. UPS has demonstrated thet they try to match Fedex service for service offering. They do very well putting it on trucks long before it goes on an airplane already. Reason they can let trucks go before airplanes in some cases since the later products can still make it by plane, the opposite is never true. This optimization makes it difficult to park airplanes and easier to park trucks. Goes back to first question.
How many furloughs do you believe an OT ban would absorb?
In other words, IPA has already demonstrated that an effective OT ban prevented 100 from being furloughed. (even with all the supervisors)
UPS can talk some high volume customers into different offerings, but not many. If you are a mail order company, customers expect NDA delivery times, if you are contracted to UPS and UPS says no more 0800/1030 delivery times, and your competitor uses Fedex with 0800/1030 delivery times, expect UPS to lose the business altogether. Goes back to question 2.
Nice thing having our friends at Fedex- Kind of like a competitor detente <g>
09-29-2008, 04:02 PM
#16
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 440
Originally Posted by SLPII
As the economic melt down continues, the possibility of UPS "parking" pilots and jets seems like it's around the corner.
So what are we saying??
100
200
10 percent?
Or sell everything to DHL?
So what are we saying??
100
200
10 percent?
Or sell everything to DHL?
09-29-2008, 04:06 PM
#17
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,333
Originally Posted by Busboy
... The rest is just filled in from Faux News programs.
As far as furloughs? If they don't get some kind of bail out plan #2 - who knows what'll happen?
Last edited by ⌐ AV8OR WANNABE; 09-29-2008 at 04:12 PM.
09-29-2008, 04:30 PM
#18
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Position: Leftof longitudinal
Posts: 1,899
Originally Posted by UPSFO4LIFE
What they can do is close a sort facility. Instead of sending one plane from gateway A to SDF and RFD, they get rid of the RFD flight. I know it would be extream, but maybe closing DFW or RFD and sending that volume to SDF. That would cut flights and jobs without hurting the customer. I think that would be WAAAYYY down the road, but don't think it can't happen.
The other reason is contingency. Think the SDF snow/ice storms. They have come to rely on the ability to move sort capability around. Fedex does same. (Where UPS got the idea <g>)
09-29-2008, 04:34 PM
#19
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Position: Leftof longitudinal
Posts: 1,899
Originally Posted by Roberto
About a half-dozen DC8 C-checks (which I believe are required annually) were put on hold about 4 weeks ago. I believe they are on hold until the DHL deal is done. Also, the Boeing strike will affect the 2 new 747's and 3 767's scheduled for next year (there is one 747 BCF that is unaffected by Boeing).
Training after the 747-classic displacement is moving along, and all the fleets are becoming better manned. The DC8 is fat, and recently even the FE seat is fat. There are 21 more DC8 FE's who will complete training before peak. There are over 30 FE's to be trained after peak. We better get some more work....
Training after the 747-classic displacement is moving along, and all the fleets are becoming better manned. The DC8 is fat, and recently even the FE seat is fat. There are 21 more DC8 FE's who will complete training before peak. There are over 30 FE's to be trained after peak. We better get some more work....
Sittin' A
09-29-2008, 05:19 PM
#20
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2007
Position: 757/767
Posts: 579
Originally Posted by SaltyDog
The OT shows an 8 getting picked up outta ROW in the next few days and going to SAT for the heavy check <g>
Sittin' A
Sittin' A
Quite a few are scheduled to go to GSO this month and early November (2 have already gone there), but not for C-checks, nor from ROW. They are tails that we are currently using going in for some type of MX with something to do with clearing up paperwork (not just the 3 that were in storage on the SDF ramp for so long).
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