No one knows, but DHL is the key. If its a nogo, then its easy to get rid of the bottom FE's that were just put there. Now that about 50 and take the bottom Md and 74 guys and thats another 50 to 100 depending how many you want out, and not much training will need to be done. Last week man power planning said we were very fat when I called and asked. When I ask for a number they clammed up. I've heard 300 when the MD moves back to domestic, and its complete, barring DHL. so lets assume OT is 100 guys and there is a ban and you can get rid of 200 over a year and as the year goes on make changes as need. I think there will be one and the union is totaly unprepared since they have never gone down this road before. yes theirs been threats, but we never had what is happening now in the world economy. If you are in the bottom 150, I would be preparing for a spring vacation and save your money and start putting together a plan that you can execute quickly. Our problem is most companies overseas require you to resign your senoirty number and no way would I do that. The rest of the companies are contract companies and UPS does not have a by pass clause that allows you to bypass recall to finish your contract, and they will know that, and could hurt your chances of being hired. The union will not come out and say we are fat or thin, because they know we are fat and dont want to create panic and anger, since they just pushed to get the over 60 crowd back in the up front seats to a tune of about 100 guys. They will wait till it happens and blame UPS and tell those folks they never saw it coming. Be prepared and count on no one but yourself to survive. DHL is the key, watch is close, and read Bob Millers email he sent out two weeks ago.

 

I see what you are saying but like I said, if volume continues to drop(and I mean a huge drop), they may close another sort facility and put that volume in SDF. Also, I have been through many storms in SDF and have learned that contingency will NOT move the sort to other hubs. I think you would agree that there have been several storms this year alone that, if they were going to divert volume and aircraft, it would have been done. Also, PHL, RFD could not handle a fraction of what flows through SDF if SDF were to close.

 

Should be very interesting around here after peak. I wonder if they will offer some sort of "leave of absence" scheme to offset the number of involuntary furloughs, if it were to go down that road.

 

I think there is a good chance that UPS will furlough to reduce costs. I also think that if the DHL is signed, it may very well prevent furloughs. But if the deal doesn't happen expect 100-150 guys to hit the street.

I also think it is a good chance that they will furlough out of seniority order too just to save costs. They will start with the DC-8 FEs no matter the seniority, and then they will probably furlough the MIL leave guys next. All in order to save a few million.

 

First Furloughing the MIL leave guys is Illegal and they know it.
Second, out of senority furlogh is doubtful unless they reduce the 8 and the fe's have no place to go, Ie no medical, no chance to upgrade etc. It's coming, so much for coming here for the stabilty if it occurs. The contract addresses very little as far as furlough and recall, bypass etc. I think they never thought it was an issue. And lets say they do other LOA, really how many will take it. Those with military guard or reserve jobs that are at the bottom might, to take a full time job, but besides that there to much money to be lost when you compare Major or LtCol pay to 3 year plus, espically if no pilot bonus is included.

 

What's next with regards to the DHL contract?

 

Chairman of the US Senate Antitrust Subcommittee Herb Kohl says the planned deal between DHL and UPS “would be anti-competitive and in violation of (US) antitrust law.”

IMO the deal probably won't happen because the politicians will kill it in one way or another.

 

I know, but that is the official ruling or just some sort of suggestion? Now what??

 

The way I read it is that it will be blocked as soon as the deal is signed. Here is the Chairman's statement:

“This arrangement between DHL and UPS would appear to substantially harm competition in the overnight package delivery market, and thereby would likely hurt consumers and business reliant on these services,” Kohl said. “It is our judgment that antitrust law requires federal enforcement authorities to act to block DHL and UPS from entering into this deal that is contrary to antitrust law.”

The funniest (or tragic) part if this is that our politicians are so hell bent on killing a deal that benefits a dominant US company (UPS) under the guise of anti-trust, that they even actually considered having the taxpayers of Ohio subsidize DHL in order to keep the Wilmington hub open.

UPS pilots will be furloughed, but at least the minimum wage box throwing jobs in Ohio will be saved for another year or two until DHL pulls out of the USA completely.

 

I thought UPS is the 900-pound guerilla, don't they a few dirty politicians (I know, that's redundant) up their sleeves to pull this off?