Connect and get the inside scoop on Airline Companies

Welcome to Airline Pilot Forums - Connect and get the inside scoop on Airline Companies

If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ. Join our community today and start interacting with existing members. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free.


User Tag List

Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 12-17-2012, 09:29 AM   #1  
Line Holder
Thread Starter
 
blogwth's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Aug 2012
Posts: 99
Default ATSG aircraft projections

ATSG seems to have a number of 767 aircraft that are not currently producing revenue. This number is likely to increase after the seasonal bump ends. ATSG has lost , or will lose flying from Japan (JAL) and Europe, South/Central America (LAN, Amerijet), Hawaii (UPS seasonal?), the Middle East (DHL reducing from 4 to 3). I'm probably missing some others. Some of this could be offset by rumors that ABX will pick up routes currently covered by three Capital 727s. Even prior to these losses, they had excess 767s. ATSG is also expecting to get two more 767-200s return from lease to Brazilian company RIO.

In response, ATI, Capital and ABX ALL have pending furloughs totaling well over 100 crew members. When combined with the furloughs earlier this year at ATI, the total is probably around 200 crew members that have been or will be laid off this year.

There seems to be soft demand for the aircraft at this time. The corporation is responding by reducing staff. I wonder that they plan to do about the excess aircraft.

Many of their aircraft are owned by their leasing company, Cargo Aircraft Management (CAM). CAM leases aircraft to internal customers, ABX, ATI, and Capital and external customers including RIO and a Canadian customer.

I think it is interesting that the CAM website advertises aircraft for sale or lease including:
767-300ER 364CM
767-200SF 712AX passenger aircraft
757-200PCF None
B757-200 Combi None
727-200F Retiring fleet , N708AA
DC-8F Retiring fleet, N602AL, N605AL, N820BX, N825BX, N830BX, N603AL, N606AL, N822BX, N828BX, N604BX, N721CX, N823BX, N829BX

I think it is also interesting that the CAM website does not indicate any 767-200s, other than 712AX, for sale or lease. Also, CAM is advertising 364CM the next 767-300 to come out of conversion, for lease.

I know ATSG would rather use CAM aircraft for ACMI (lease to an internal customer) than dry lease (external customer) because they get more profit from an ACMI. However, if they don't have enough demand for their ACMI services, I think they would rather do a dry lease or sell than leave the aircraft sitting with no revenue.

Of course, I'm looking at a snapshot. I don't see what they see. I have to make projections based on clues. A mass furlough indicates the employer expects the overstaffed condition will last beyond a break even point where savings exceed costs. I don't know what that point is but going through with a furlough indicates the corporation expects the overstaffed condition will not be short term.

Dry leases tend to last longer than many ACMI agreements. I think dry leases are at least 5 years while ACMI could be as short as a month. The decision makers at ATSG have to make projections about future demand. If they project the inability to find ACMI work for one or more aircraft for a sufficient period of time, it seems logical that they would try to either dry lease or sell that aircraft. The fact that they don't seem to be trying to sell or dry lease 767-200s seems to indicate they expect to acquire ACMI opportunities instead.

For people who are trying to piece together information to get some idea about what the future holds, there seems to be conflicting data. The massive furloughs indicates a longer term situation but the apparent focus on ACMI indicates a shorter term situation.

I'm just tossing this out here to, hopefully, get some discussion going.
blogwth is offline  
Old 12-17-2012, 12:12 PM   #2  
Gets Weekends Off
 
nitefr8dog's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,305
Default

I guess one would have to assume business is a bit soft in a few markets but they are hopeful it will turn around after the first of the year...hell if the answer is to sell aircraft every time there is a down turn ATSG could be selling them all...that would produce a lot of short term revenue. By the same token ATLAS could sell their 300's that are parked until business picks up after the 1st of the year. Parked 200's that ATSG owned outright and have been written down for years are not that expensive to have on the books. Just curious about your never ending negative posts....are you hoping this line of rhetoric will affect stock prices or that really anyone on APC knows or cares who ATSG is....just wondering. This is the ACMI game unlike FDX and UPS contracts come and go... furloughs and recalls happen more frequently....unused aircraft are parked from time to time.....is this all that surprising to you?...Really?
nitefr8dog is offline  
Old 12-17-2012, 01:26 PM   #3  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Whale Driver's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Nov 2010
Posts: 542
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by nitefr8dog View Post
............................. By the same token ATLAS could sell their 300's that are parked until business picks up after the 1st of the year..............................................
Parked, really? That must be the reason that Atlas just awarded a few dozen up grades and more than 50 new hire spots, all to be trained ASAP. Ah, but what do they know?????
Whale Driver is offline  
Old 12-17-2012, 02:19 PM   #4  
Line Holder
Thread Starter
 
blogwth's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Aug 2012
Posts: 99
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by nitefr8dog View Post
I guess one would have to assume business is a bit soft in a few markets but they are hopeful it will turn around after the first of the year...hell if the answer is to sell aircraft every time there is a down turn ATSG could be selling them all...that would produce a lot of short term revenue. By the same token ATLAS could sell their 300's that are parked until business picks up after the 1st of the year. Parked 200's that ATSG owned outright and have been written down for years are not that expensive to have on the books. Just curious about your never ending negative posts....are you hoping this line of rhetoric will affect stock prices or that really anyone on APC knows or cares who ATSG is....just wondering. This is the ACMI game unlike FDX and UPS contracts come and go... furloughs and recalls happen more frequently....unused aircraft are parked from time to time.....is this all that surprising to you?...Really?

About 1/3 of the ATSG pilot group has been furloughed in the last year or will be furloughed within the next two weeks. That is more than a minor fluctuation. Your comment indicates a person who is senior enough to feel somewhat safe and too insensitive to care about anybody else.


I'm sorry if it hurts your feelings if I say things that about ABX or ATSG that you think seem negative. My comment was analytical and meant to explore what seemed incongruous about a negative indication (furloughs), compared to a positive indication (they seem to possibly be holding out for ACMI business).


You seem interested in stifling any discussion about ABX but you are more than happy to trash anyone else. There are many ATSG people who read these posts and share information. If you don't like what I say, you know where the ignore button is. Your predictions are wrong more often than not and you seldom add any value to the conversations here.
blogwth is offline  
Old 12-17-2012, 02:33 PM   #5  
Gets Weekends Off
 
nitefr8dog's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,305
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Whale Driver View Post
Parked, really? That must be the reason that Atlas just awarded a few dozen up grades and more than 50 new hire spots, all to be trained ASAP. Ah, but what do they know?????
Don't shoot the messenger...just repeating what an ATLAS crew told me while I was jump-seating....my point was while ATLAS waits for the business it is planning on they have (according) to your fellow crew-member parked/stored/put/not in the air....etc...a few airframes in KJFK...(again what Atlas crew-members told me last week) if that is not true I hope nobody jumped off a building...but my point was they are not selling airframes they are not at the moment using as Blogwth suggested ATSG should look at.
nitefr8dog is offline  
Old 12-17-2012, 02:44 PM   #6  
Line Holder
Thread Starter
 
blogwth's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Aug 2012
Posts: 99
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by nitefr8dog View Post
...but my point was they are not selling airframes they are not at the moment using as Blogwth suggested ATSG should look at.
How in the hell could you get that out of what I said? We're looking at serious deficits in reading comprehensions skills here.
blogwth is offline  
Old 12-17-2012, 02:46 PM   #7  
Gets Weekends Off
 
nitefr8dog's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,305
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blogwth View Post
About 1/3 of the ATSG pilot group has been furloughed in the last year or will be furloughed within the next two weeks. That is more than a minor fluctuation. Your comment indicates a person who is senior enough to feel somewhat safe and too insensitive to care about anybody else.


I'm sorry if it hurts your feelings if I say things that about ABX or ATSG that you think seem negative. My comment was analytical and meant to explore what seemed incongruous about a negative indication (furloughs), compared to a positive indication (they seem to possibly be holding out for ACMI business).


You seem interested in stifling any discussion about ABX but you are more than happy to trash anyone else. There are many ATSG people who read these posts and share information. If you don't like what I say, you know where the ignore button is. Your predictions are wrong more often than not and you seldom add any value to the conversations here.
I really could care less what you say good or bad...right now the 767/200/300 market is soft in cargo. ATSG is not ATLAS we do not fly 747's or 300's passenger. You seemed surprised at the furlough's at ATSG but let's be clear ABX has not furloughed...yet... the first round was Management/Union politics and has been resolved. The second round has been put on hold. ATI lost the majority of its ACMI business with BAX shuttering its TOL operation and CCIA had a bunch of old airplanes that are being parked...the end result furloughs. Yet it seems to mystify you why ATSG is furloughing back to the numbers appropriate to the business and aircraft on hand. I suggest you call JH. or BG. Both will gladly answer all your questions and you can sleep better at night...or whenever you sleep.
nitefr8dog is offline  
Old 12-17-2012, 02:57 PM   #8  
Line Holder
Thread Starter
 
blogwth's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Aug 2012
Posts: 99
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by nitefr8dog View Post
...ABX has not furloughed...yet... the first round was Management/Union politics and has been resolved. The second round has been put on hold. ...
What do you mean by "put on hold?" Is the furlough canceled or not? If it isn't canceled then it is still pending. I haven't read anything in the ABX CBA abotu putting furloughs "on hold."

Quote:
Originally Posted by nitefr8dog View Post
... I suggest you call JH. or BG. Both will gladly answer all your questions and you can sleep better at night...or whenever you sleep.
Why would I call them when I have you to provide a direct pipeline. You obviously know even more than JH or BG.
blogwth is offline  
Old 12-17-2012, 02:58 PM   #9  
Gets Weekends Off
 
nitefr8dog's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,305
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blogwth View Post
How in the hell could you get that out of what I said? We're looking at serious deficits in reading comprehensions skills here.
Because almost everything you say make very little sense....really..."about 1/3 of the ATSG pilot group has been fourloughed"...and that surprises you why???? They are parking 12 of 14 DC8's all the 72's... merging 2 (maybe 3) airlines and the BAX business is gone and you are wondering about the furlough's....WOW
nitefr8dog is offline  
Old 12-17-2012, 03:05 PM   #10  
Line Holder
 
borismud's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Sep 2012
Posts: 52
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by nitefr8dog View Post
Because almost everything you say make very little sense....really..."about 1/3 of the ATSG pilot group has been fourloughed"...and that surprises you why???? They are parking 12 of 14 DC8's all the 72's... merging 2 (maybe 3) airlines and the BAX business is gone and you are wondering about the furlough's....WOW
Wow Dog. You totally missed his point. You need to go back and try reading it again.
borismud is offline  
 
 
 

 
Post Reply
 



Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search


Related Topics
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
"This is your ground pilot speaking" Golden Bear Engineers & Technicians 8 04-29-2017 12:30 PM
Scope Block Hour Ratio CAL EWR United 67 11-25-2012 03:46 PM
AMR Files For Bankruptcy orvil American 304 12-06-2011 10:32 AM
United Spending $500 million on seats flyingfarmer United 9 08-23-2011 08:28 AM
Flying the MiG-23 ryan1234 Hangar Talk 8 04-02-2010 09:08 AM


All times are GMT -8. The time now is 12:09 PM.