So long and thanks for all the fish...
07-29-2020 | 03:43 PM
#81
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What about the untold masses that had this thing well before covid became part of our vernacular and were misdiagnosed as having the flu (like me and a few family members), or the countless others that have had it asymptomatically but have not been tested and hence aren't part of the "confirmed cases" statistic? When you include those people (a number which is, admittedly, unknowable at this point but is most certainly non-zero), that denominator gets a lot larger, and the death rate, being inversely proportional to the number of cases, falls significantly.
For this reason, the only valid math we can do at this point is deaths divided by the population of the US because we know both of these numbers with reasonable certainty. Using any other numbers is at best bad science, and at worst, fear mongering. And God knows we don't need more of that thanks to CNN.
I just hope for everyone's sake cooler heads prevail and everyone comes out of hiding, or what happens to this country over the next couple of years will make the depression of the 30s look like a day at the beach.
07-30-2020 | 01:57 AM
#82
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Joined: Jul 2019
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Re: avi8tor614
You said it, the world "believes" it's a problem. Why because A)People believe its going to end in death and carnage or B) people really don't understand that the medical community is concerned about hospital over crowding, not being able to help the most vulnerable. The mortality rates for Covid-19 are statistically for an infectious diseases is low. I'm not trying to be insensitive when I say this either. Fact is fact
Why does the world think what they think? Answer A from above. Because 1) The media reports. I don't have a problem with what they report, it's how they report. Face it, news has to be interested for the masses to follow so they put up total infections, DEATHS ect big scary numbers to most. So the average Joe this makes nervous. Hence the world believes it's a problem. People get sick, some will die ( I don't want anyone to die) but it is what it is. The average Joe does not know when people with underlying conditions and vulnerable get hospital care they get better when Covid-19 is contracted. That's the real problem not enough to health staff and facilities to treat these people and they don't the lasting effects because this is a new type of Coronavirus.
You think we should have shut down totally right, take a peek at Australia. A country completely shut off for months, isolated. They are not thriving and even though there cases are not as high as the US they are having an uptick in viruses. How does this happen from a country that completely shut down and did everything correct. Their economy is in tatters look up their news channels NOT our news stories about the Aussies.
This virus is just plain ugly medically, socially, and economically. It just stinks. We sit on two side of the fence. Some believe shut down some says life goes on. Humans have always pressed on in life. By the way 4,200,000 infectious in US 146,000 deaths. That's 3.4% mortality rate Not bad for a Deadly Virus, and yes I wish it was 0.
Why does the world think what they think? Answer A from above. Because 1) The media reports. I don't have a problem with what they report, it's how they report. Face it, news has to be interested for the masses to follow so they put up total infections, DEATHS ect big scary numbers to most. So the average Joe this makes nervous. Hence the world believes it's a problem. People get sick, some will die ( I don't want anyone to die) but it is what it is. The average Joe does not know when people with underlying conditions and vulnerable get hospital care they get better when Covid-19 is contracted. That's the real problem not enough to health staff and facilities to treat these people and they don't the lasting effects because this is a new type of Coronavirus.
You think we should have shut down totally right, take a peek at Australia. A country completely shut off for months, isolated. They are not thriving and even though there cases are not as high as the US they are having an uptick in viruses. How does this happen from a country that completely shut down and did everything correct. Their economy is in tatters look up their news channels NOT our news stories about the Aussies.
This virus is just plain ugly medically, socially, and economically. It just stinks. We sit on two side of the fence. Some believe shut down some says life goes on. Humans have always pressed on in life. By the way 4,200,000 infectious in US 146,000 deaths. That's 3.4% mortality rate Not bad for a Deadly Virus, and yes I wish it was 0.
https://texasscorecard.com/federal/doctors-with-coronavirus-treatment-face-orwellian-suppression/
My sister is a middle age high risk (smoker, asthma, immune deficiency) individual who contracted Corona and found a treatment plan from Dr. Richard Bartlett with a 100% success rate. My sister requested the treatment from her doctor, who was unaware of the treatment, and tested negative after four days of the treatment. The treatment was also completed from home.
As pilots who risk their careers over all this we should be pushing this information out to better help our situation and potentially save lives. Here’s another one for you:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eDSDdw...ature=youtu.be
07-30-2020 | 04:24 AM
#83
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Joined: Nov 2015
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Here's a classic case where a little critical thinking provides insight into the questionable nature of this simplistic approach to calculating the death rate.
What about the untold masses that had this thing well before covid became part of our vernacular and were misdiagnosed as having the flu (like me and a few family members), or the countless others that have had it asymptomatically but have not been tested and hence aren't part of the "confirmed cases" statistic? When you include those people (a number which is, admittedly, unknowable at this point but is most certainly non-zero), that denominator gets a lot larger, and the death rate, being inversely proportional to the number of cases, falls significantly.
For this reason, the only valid math we can do at this point is deaths divided by the population of the US because we know both of these numbers with reasonable certainty. Using any other numbers is at best bad science, and at worst, fear mongering. And God knows we don't need more of that thanks to CNN.
I just hope for everyone's sake cooler heads prevail and everyone comes out of hiding, or what happens to this country over the next couple of years will make the depression of the 30s look like a day at the beach.
What about the untold masses that had this thing well before covid became part of our vernacular and were misdiagnosed as having the flu (like me and a few family members), or the countless others that have had it asymptomatically but have not been tested and hence aren't part of the "confirmed cases" statistic? When you include those people (a number which is, admittedly, unknowable at this point but is most certainly non-zero), that denominator gets a lot larger, and the death rate, being inversely proportional to the number of cases, falls significantly.
For this reason, the only valid math we can do at this point is deaths divided by the population of the US because we know both of these numbers with reasonable certainty. Using any other numbers is at best bad science, and at worst, fear mongering. And God knows we don't need more of that thanks to CNN.
I just hope for everyone's sake cooler heads prevail and everyone comes out of hiding, or what happens to this country over the next couple of years will make the depression of the 30s look like a day at the beach.
The CDC has put out data, information and some educational stats. I take the information they gave us. Processed it, then applied it. I didn't make up Boogeyman numbers like you:
"aren't part of the "confirmed cases" statistic? When you include those people (a number which is, admittedly, unknowable at this point but is most certainly non-zero)"
Dude, you may be correct, Hell probably are. You my friend have overused the term critical thinking when you just had to use KISS. If your to young in aviation to remember this was term that meant "Keep It Simple Stupid".
When you have more reliable data from the CDC "experts" let me know. I'll take your critical thinking and apply it to the new data
07-30-2020 | 06:02 AM
#84
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I can see that I'm done here. My best to all as we await Kirby's decree.
07-30-2020 | 07:05 AM
#85
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If you base the death rate off of only those who have been tested, and only test those displaying symptoms, that's called selection bias. This is statistics 101 and the most obvious of statistical frauds. Yet you're just wiling to accept the data coming from these so-called "experts" as the gospel, and worse, call me out for questioning it?
I can see that I'm done here. My best to all as we await Kirby's decree.
I can see that I'm done here. My best to all as we await Kirby's decree.
The only valid argument I can validate is we don't know enough about the virus and past data has not all been sorted out. (Example) Actual Covid-19 deaths someone who died from the virus attacking a human functioning system VS. someone who died from a disease and happened to have Covid-19. Those are being counted as well and are being counted as Covid-19 deaths and should not be. If this what you mean by (unintentional) statistical fraud and yes, I agree with you but if your just saying the CDC makes up numbers to simply be biased I disagree.
07-30-2020 | 07:18 AM
#86
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Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 2,045
Likes: 257
From: A320 FO
So your done, cool I'm not. I just to want make sure I clearly understand what you are writing. Your saying the CDC numbers are biased and their data is unreliable? Just a question, not picking a fight just want to see your point.
The only valid argument I can validate is we don't know enough about the virus and past data has not all been sorted out. (Example) Actual Covid-19 deaths someone who died from the virus attacking a human functioning system VS. someone who died from a disease and happened to have Covid-19. Those are being counted as well and are being counted as Covid-19 deaths and should not be. If this what you mean by (unintentional) statistical fraud and yes, I agree with you but if your just saying the CDC makes up numbers to simply be biased I disagree.
The only valid argument I can validate is we don't know enough about the virus and past data has not all been sorted out. (Example) Actual Covid-19 deaths someone who died from the virus attacking a human functioning system VS. someone who died from a disease and happened to have Covid-19. Those are being counted as well and are being counted as Covid-19 deaths and should not be. If this what you mean by (unintentional) statistical fraud and yes, I agree with you but if your just saying the CDC makes up numbers to simply be biased I disagree.
I like looking at closed systems like Diamond Princess and Navy carriers. Diamond Princess which skewed older and less healthy had 14 deaths. The aircraft carrier which skews younger and healthier had 1. So for easy math 14/700 for old folks, 1/1000+ for people who can go up a flight of stairs without being out of breath.
Those aren’t numbers that justify this level of panic. This is a massive money and power grab just like every other crisis the oligarchs ‘didn’t let go to waste’ over the past decades.
Sweden also shows the path. On a per capita basis we need to see about 180,000 dead. We’re almost there. The virus is over, the economic damage from it is just starting.
07-30-2020 | 07:19 AM
#87
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Joined: Aug 2018
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Aviator614,
The point is you can't publish a death rate unless you know how many people have been infected. If you only divide known infections by known deaths that is unreliable data as the total of infected people is unknown.
The only two absolute known factors are deaths and US population. Anything else is guessing.
The point is you can't publish a death rate unless you know how many people have been infected. If you only divide known infections by known deaths that is unreliable data as the total of infected people is unknown.
The only two absolute known factors are deaths and US population. Anything else is guessing.
07-30-2020 | 07:28 AM
#88
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Joined: Aug 2016
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Aviator614,
The point is you can't publish a death rate unless you know how many people have been infected. If you only divide known infections by known deaths that is unreliable data as the total of infected people is unknown.
The only two absolute known factors are deaths and US population. Anything else is guessing.
The point is you can't publish a death rate unless you know how many people have been infected. If you only divide known infections by known deaths that is unreliable data as the total of infected people is unknown.
The only two absolute known factors are deaths and US population. Anything else is guessing.
07-30-2020 | 08:06 AM
#90
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Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 421
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IMO, flying a 50 seater now is like being a part of the band on the Titanic. You're doing something useful for now but the ship is still going down. Better find a lifeboat before it sinks from underneath you.
