We need a plan B for no vaccine.
10-23-2020, 07:11 AM
#474
Perennial Reserve
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Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,502
Dr. David Heymann, who led the WHO’s infectious disease unit during the SARS epidemic in 2002-2003, believes some governments may be over-reliant on the development of a vaccine at a time when effective communication, diagnostic testing and outbreak containment activities are all critically important tools.
“The difficulty right now is that in many countries, they are looking forward to a vaccine which may or may not come, which may or may not be effective in the short or long term, and they are looking at possible therapeutic (options) which could solve many of the problems,” Heymann said Wednesday during a webinar for think tank Chatham House.
“But, that’s not a good way to proceed at present. … We have to learn to live with the pandemic.”
This means the infection rate of the coronavirus, like other coronaviruses, will eventually stabilize at a constant level so that the virus becomes present in communities at all times.
Vallance also said that creating a vaccine from scratch took 10 years on average. The fastest vaccine ever developed was for mumps, and it took more than four years.
A man plays guitar under a empty Bethesda Terrace in Central Park in New York City on October 19, 2020. New York City is planning to set up mass vaccination sites once Covid-19 vaccines become available vetted by an independent state panel, Governor Andrew Cuomo said on October 18, 2020.
TIMOTHY A. CLARY | AFP via Getty Images
“One of the scenarios for this virus is that it does become endemic and it looks at present like that is going to happen — just like it happened four previous times when there was an emergence of a coronavirus into human populations that became endemic,” Heymann said, referring to the four common human coronaviruses.
“I think the answer is that, yes, this will become endemic,” he continued. “We shouldn’t just be trying to suppress this virus out of existence or trying to suppress it to a level that’s unrealistic. We have to be able to suppress it to a level where it causes minimum damage while at the same time entering a country and becoming endemic.”
“They must do their own risk assessments and understand what measures they can take to prevent themselves from becoming infected and to prevent others from becoming infected,” he said. “It’s all about people understanding that this virus, if it is destined to become endemic, will become endemic no matter what we do. But we can slow that to a certain level that causes less disruption in our societies and lesser death.”
To protect yourself, the WHO recommends that people keep a distance of at least 1 meter (yard) from others, and disinfect frequently touched surfaces. It also advises cleaning hands thoroughly and often, and for people to avoid touching their eyes, mouth and nose.
“We know now that we are going to have to start living with this virus in a more chronic way — really, in the long term,” said Dr. Olivia Tulloch, CEO of Anthrologica, a leading research-based specialist in applied anthropology in global health.
During the webinar, Tulloch said people across many countries, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, had been living with strict restrictive measures imposed on their daily lives for several months, with no sign of them ending anytime soon.
“And so, people feel fatigue and confusion and frustration to do with the measures that are being directed at them,” she continued. “We are putting a lot of resource into the science of vaccines but, in terms of social science, we have got a huge amount of work to do.”
It will also be important to understand the mechanisms that would be necessary to address those with a “high degree of hesitancy” if and when a vaccine becomes available, Tulloch said.
“The difficulty right now is that in many countries, they are looking forward to a vaccine which may or may not come, which may or may not be effective in the short or long term, and they are looking at possible therapeutic (options) which could solve many of the problems,” Heymann said Wednesday during a webinar for think tank Chatham House.
“But, that’s not a good way to proceed at present. … We have to learn to live with the pandemic.”
Minimum damage
The U.K.’s chief scientific advisor, Patrick Vallance, told the National Security Strategy Committee in London earlier this week that Covid-19 was likely to become as endemic as the annual flu.This means the infection rate of the coronavirus, like other coronaviruses, will eventually stabilize at a constant level so that the virus becomes present in communities at all times.
Vallance also said that creating a vaccine from scratch took 10 years on average. The fastest vaccine ever developed was for mumps, and it took more than four years.
A man plays guitar under a empty Bethesda Terrace in Central Park in New York City on October 19, 2020. New York City is planning to set up mass vaccination sites once Covid-19 vaccines become available vetted by an independent state panel, Governor Andrew Cuomo said on October 18, 2020.
TIMOTHY A. CLARY | AFP via Getty Images
“One of the scenarios for this virus is that it does become endemic and it looks at present like that is going to happen — just like it happened four previous times when there was an emergence of a coronavirus into human populations that became endemic,” Heymann said, referring to the four common human coronaviruses.
“I think the answer is that, yes, this will become endemic,” he continued. “We shouldn’t just be trying to suppress this virus out of existence or trying to suppress it to a level that’s unrealistic. We have to be able to suppress it to a level where it causes minimum damage while at the same time entering a country and becoming endemic.”
Risk assessments
When asked how people can learn to live with the pandemic, Heymann replied: “Individuals must know how to do their own risk assessments, as they do for sexually transmitted infections, as they do for tuberculosis, as they do for other infections.”“They must do their own risk assessments and understand what measures they can take to prevent themselves from becoming infected and to prevent others from becoming infected,” he said. “It’s all about people understanding that this virus, if it is destined to become endemic, will become endemic no matter what we do. But we can slow that to a certain level that causes less disruption in our societies and lesser death.”
To protect yourself, the WHO recommends that people keep a distance of at least 1 meter (yard) from others, and disinfect frequently touched surfaces. It also advises cleaning hands thoroughly and often, and for people to avoid touching their eyes, mouth and nose.
“We know now that we are going to have to start living with this virus in a more chronic way — really, in the long term,” said Dr. Olivia Tulloch, CEO of Anthrologica, a leading research-based specialist in applied anthropology in global health.
During the webinar, Tulloch said people across many countries, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, had been living with strict restrictive measures imposed on their daily lives for several months, with no sign of them ending anytime soon.
“And so, people feel fatigue and confusion and frustration to do with the measures that are being directed at them,” she continued. “We are putting a lot of resource into the science of vaccines but, in terms of social science, we have got a huge amount of work to do.”
It will also be important to understand the mechanisms that would be necessary to address those with a “high degree of hesitancy” if and when a vaccine becomes available, Tulloch said.
10-23-2020, 07:24 AM
#475
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Posts: 2,002
Originally Posted by Excargodog
I think people are starting to realize they have over promised and may soon be underdelivering...
People are clueless or wildly misinformed if they thought this virus was going to disappear off the face of the earth forever. Doesn’t mean we can’t get back to normal in the future.
10-23-2020, 07:42 AM
#476
Perennial Reserve
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Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,502
Originally Posted by nuball5
People are clueless or wildly misinformed if they thought this virus was going to disappear off the face of the earth forever. Doesn’t mean we can’t get back to normal in the future.
10-23-2020, 08:09 AM
#477
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,281
Remdesivir is now FDA approved to treat serious covid. Every little bit helps, but I still think people would rather just not get covid in the first place.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthca...reatment-facts
https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthca...reatment-facts
10-23-2020, 08:55 AM
#478
Perennial Reserve
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Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,502
Originally Posted by rickair7777
..., but I still think people would rather just not get covid in the first place.
10-23-2020, 01:27 PM
#479
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2020
Posts: 484
Originally Posted by Excargodog
I think people are starting to realize they have over promised and may soon be underdelivering...
10-24-2020, 05:53 AM
#480
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,281
Originally Posted by Excargodog
I’d rather be wealthy and healthy than sick and poor too. Some things just go without saying...
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