WutFace

K. Let's give you the benefit of the doubt and say the fast testing devices are 100% reliable. (they're not)
Who pays for installing fast testing devices in every "quarantined" area in America? You realize that you can only test 1 test every 15 minutes? Who designates who's quarantined and who isn't? How do you enforce someone who is vulnerable and yet lives at home?

This "just quarantine the vulnerable" plan adds so many complications that when you start to really dive into it, you realize how immature and impossible implementing it is.

CantTaxiToACS

I think this chain of events you described actually disproves most of the points you’ve been making. Step 1 and 2 demonstrate that lockdowns don’t work. The virus will eventually get everyone. Flattening the curve wasn’t changing the area under the curve (infections), just delaying it.

I commend you for going up against the fearless brigade who think this is all a futile mess. But I still honestly believe it’s all been a futile mess. We can’t dodge this virus, it’s very contagious. So there needs to be a new plan. As soon as the mainstream adopted a save everyone campaign, progress will never be made. The point of this thread was mainly opportunity cost of all this. As much as I detest trump, his “cure is worse than disease” quote sounds about right to me when I look around and see the despair.

This isn’t binary, I know how contagious this is and how dangerous it is for older folks and those with previous conditions. But at this point I also know if you’re under 50, you’re gonna be ok. There is plenty of data for that now. This isn’t March anymore. SOPs and check lists change for reasons. It’s ok to change course now.

WutFace

I'm really disappointed that you completely ignored my last paragraph.

You're right. It's not binary. Mitigation strategies will be a rheostat until there is a widespread available vaccine.

So, I'm sorry you're going to miss out on your peak clubbing years. They're most likely going to be closed for the foreseeable future.

But don't mistake the bar being closed for total lockdown. And wear a mask. It might save your career.

CantTaxiToACS

I think if you and I sat down for a drink we’d be more simpatico than you think. I wear a mask all the time, I call my grandparents and make sure they’re staying inside and I know for certain

I just think that, “doing my part” is actually getting the virus and contributing to herd immunity. I believe that is what will save my career, not prolonging the vulnerability.

Desdi

So to the OP, have you bothered, as was originally suggested, looking up the history of the Spanish Flu? The young and healthy were at fairly low risk during the first wave. A small mutation led to a second wave the following fall that had the power to kill a perfectly healthy young man or woman within 24 hours. I believe that was what prompted the suggestion you read up on history, which you out of hand dismissed. If you feel so strongly you need to call your representatives and 2 senators every single day, then there is the local/state governments to harass...that’s how you get change in the country, well at least the proper way... I don’t necessarily disagree with you in the big picture (mitigation while getting on with life), however I would work on not reinforcing the negative stereotypes of your generation in your delivery.

WutFace

What stops this madness is a vaccine. Not herd immunity. Herd immunity will take years, kill millions, and ruin the economy. So that's off the table.

So now, what do we do while we wait for a vaccine? Do we just pretend that the virus doesn't exist? Or do we do what we can to minimize the damage to life and property? I say go with plan B.

742Dash

Yet here in 2020 we still can not cure either herpes or the common cold.

CantTaxiToACS

Ah, good. So here lies our divide. The question is, “what do we do while we wait for a vaccine? Do we just pretend that the virus doesn't exist? Or do we do what we can to minimize the damage to life and property?”

I am not pretending that it doesn’t exist. We’re gonna catch some casualties, the pretending is actually thinking social distancing and lockdowns will save everyone.

My best way out of this is to minimize incidental damage like I described in the original post. A perpetual global lockdown is gonna make some pretty bad incidental damage. I’m thinking long term. Not day to day numbers.

CantTaxiToACS

Holy moly. Can you not see the irony in your post? You seem to be in the lockdown till vaccine camp but just said our current medical scientific technologies can’t handle a common cold cure. Therefore, if your logic is continued, a vaccine will never come and what I’ve been trying to say is correct. We can’t do this forever, immunity naturally MAY be the answer. You actually just proved yourself wrong in one sentence.

WutFace

As airline pilots we have another factor to consider:
If we don't get the outbreak under control in the United States, other countries will not open up to us. That means international flights are dead and the cuts will be deep.

Regarding your dismissal of mitigation strategies, they have worked in other countries. South Korea locked down fast and hard and tracked every COVID positive individual using their cell phones. They had less than 13,000 cases. And now they're done with it. Must be nice.

At some point, if we ever want this nightmare to end, we're gonna have to swallow some bitter pills and decide what measures we want to take to stop the spread. If that means dining in the streets, wearing masks, and keeping your distance, that's the least we can do.