Originally Posted by KSUto64

How many college students go off to school without a car these days? If I weren’t going back after thanksgiving you can bet I’d be driving back home because I wouldn’t want to leave my vehicle. However if it were just a visit home I’d fly assuming the drive wasn’t worth it.

All that to say my guess is most college students weren’t buying one way tickets and leaving vehicles behind.

Originally Posted by AirlineAnalyst

We had a period of 11 days of substandard results (Oct 31-Nov 10). Not all 11 of the days were terrible but that is how I'm deciding to view that time period.

Since April, we have been on an almost constant upward trajectory, it's expected that we will have a few hiccups.

I got blasted for being optimistic earlier in this thread. But every single pessimistic guess has been proven false.

I went back to the earlier thread and read through the posts. It is the same rehashed shoddy analysis and nutty people:

The highlights of which are

• summer ends and travel stops
• democrats r bad n want to imprison me
• CDC/Fauci/Biden should commit Seppuku
• if you take out old people dying at a much higher rate than they usually do, this is having no impact
• they will adjust the tests so Biden can look good

My personal favourite is the "cAsEs DoN't MatTeR" or "they're hospitalizing observation cases now!!" crowd who are silent when hospitalizations are at 50% above the peak of the previous two waves (additional 30,000 hospitalized above either Wave 1 or Wave 2 peaks of 60,000) or when deaths are the highest since May.

If only there were some sort of temporal relationship between rising cases and hospitalization and deaths. I guess we will never know.

My view:
Q1: Substantial number of vaccinations will take place. No national shelter-in-place order.
Q2: Pilot & FA recalls begin
Q4: >75% of 2019 numbers

Combined with the >5% of pilots that accepted early retirement or will hit 65 since Covid began, you will probably be back in your job if you were hired more than a year before Covid.

Basically 1 year from when the Cares Act expired/stopped restricting furloughs, anyone who joined their airline prior to January 2019 should be recalled. It's why I advocate saving 1 year of living expenses.

I don't think there is any way the industry does not recover by 2025. I could reasonably see 2022 or 2023 for full recalls. Each individual component might not recover (business travel might be set back 5-10 years) but the airlines are staffed by people whose job is to maximize profit and are acting with more information than anyone on this board has/can share. They will adjust the routes and schedules to maximize profit.

Originally Posted by LoneStar32

Airlineanal is becoming less of an "analyst" and more of a partisan twit more and more he posts. The whole "I am impartial and only look at the facts" charade didn't last too long, did it?

Originally Posted by C17B74

Originally Posted by AirlineAnalyst:
I don't think there is any way the industry does not recover by 2025. I could reasonably see 2022 or 2023 for full recalls. Each individual component might not recover (business travel might be set back 5-10 years) but the airlines are staffed by people whose job is to maximize profit and are acting with more information than anyone on this board has/can share. They will adjust the routes and schedules to maximize profit.

Originally Posted by LoneStar32

Airlineanal is becoming less of an "analyst" and more of a partisan twit more and more he posts. The whole "I am impartial and only look at the facts" charade didn't last too long, did it?

Originally Posted by Roy Biggins

I was thinking the same thing. He’s got some good things to say, but his vitriolic, partisan bias is starting to surface. I think we’d all prefer he just stick to the analytics.

Originally Posted by LoneStar32

A lot of people are listening to the stay at home orders. Expect more disappointment over the Christmas Holiday too. When everybody is done trying to make Cuomo a hero and giving him Emmys, you can also thank him for tanking the economy for the next decade.

Originally Posted by Roy Biggins

It won’t get better until Biden admin can give the mandatory 4-6 week lockdown. Things will get way better after that, which will also coincide with vaccine distribution. They (new admin) can then directly take credit for controlling and combating the virus, which they can hang their hat on for years to come. My crystal ball is pretty clear on this one.

Originally Posted by AirlineAnalyst

I'm not a fan of the pessimism. It's just non-stop. When one shoddy guess get's proven false, it's rehashed with another and rolled into another shoddy guess.



So here are the actual facts:

• We hit a low of 4% on a 7-day rolling average basis on April 16th.
  
• Currently 41% on a 7-day rolling average basis.
  
• 2 Vaccines that have greater than 90% efficacy - Rollout will begin possibly this year but with with ten's of millions vaccinated in Q1.
  
• Savings higher than any time in American history.
  

If you can really look at the above facts (not guesses) and think we won't recover another 30% in the next 12 months, then we process information and weight the implications differently.



Hey, if I'm wrong and Cuomo tanks the economy for a decade or Biden implements a national shelter-in-place order, y'all can come back and gloat. But I'm just really tired of the "who can be more pessimistic" game on here.



In the meantime, I will use the data and make projections using that data.

Originally Posted by ComingInHot

I don't blame you at all, some people on here seem to find enjoyment in pessimism...

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