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Old 10-16-2020, 06:42 AM
  #1021  
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Encouraging numbers out of China regarding domestic flights.

https://skift.com/2020/10/15/chinas-...N_RQ5NmBYuf2I4
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Old 10-16-2020, 06:42 AM
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Originally Posted by WhiskeyDelta View Post
Spring break but in the fall.
In September? Guess it must be different now. I used to go back to school anywhere from sep 1-10. There were never any breaks until Thanksgiving.
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Old 10-16-2020, 06:43 AM
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Originally Posted by aeroengineer View Post
As alluded to earlier we didn’t have thousands of troops carrying it back an forth across the ocean after 1918. Worldwide mobility especially via air travel was a long way in the future.
So what? It apparently started in China and was in Kansas within weeks. It was of avian origin and quite possibly avian carried. WWI troopships cruised at - at a maximum - 20 knots, even slower as they approached Kansas. I don’t get your point frankly.
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Old 10-16-2020, 06:47 AM
  #1024  
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Originally Posted by WhiskeyDelta View Post
Spring break but in the fall.
I always figured thanksgiving period was the fall break. In all my years of school/airline flying I never considered Columbus Day a travel event. In any event, good to see numbers still holding up even at a low level. If we can keep it to the first vaccine announcement (expected in a month) that will be good.

Looking back at May predictions, we are definitely worse than the most pessimistic numbers, but the more I talk to non-aviation folks, the more I hear “I am itching to travel next year, I’ve got 2, 3, 4 trips planned”. Every friend who cancelled a 2020 trip says they’re doing it in 2021 along with other plans. People are very eager to get traveling, and with remote work I know folks who want to travel and work on the road.

To sum it up, it’s worse than I expected, but somehow I have hope.
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Old 10-16-2020, 08:10 AM
  #1025  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
So what? It apparently started in China and was in Kansas within weeks. It was of avian origin and quite possibly avian carried. WWI troopships cruised at - at a maximum - 20 knots, even slower as they approached Kansas. I don’t get your point frankly.
All I'm saying is containing viruses is harder today with a highly mobil society. Yes troop ships were slow but often packed which would allow spreading to occur among the troops over the length of the crossing. Packed trains overland also allowed spread. I actually have a relative who caught and survived polio in the early 50s and the best she could guess is she caught on a train from California back to Texas...Apologies if I came across horsey.
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Old 10-16-2020, 08:25 AM
  #1026  
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Originally Posted by aeroengineer View Post
All I'm saying is containing viruses is harder today with a highly mobil society. Yes troop ships were slow but often packed which would allow spreading to occur among the troops over the length of the crossing. Packed trains overland also allowed spread. I actually have a relative who caught and survived polio in the early 50s and the best she could guess is she caught on a train from California back to Texas...Apologies if I came across horsey.
No apologies warranted. While I would agree with you with regard to aircraft facilitating geographic spread the real issue is inherent infectivity of THAT virus in THAT society.

Had the R0 been less than one, the Spanish Flu would have died out rather than propagating. But undoubtedly troopships did facilitate the spread, just as did the densely populated cities, troop trains, etc. The more population dense areas you have, the more difficult to control any airborne spread. I just don’t think that necessarily means that now with faster transportation we will necessarily see more pandemics. It’s possible, I suppose, but commercial jet travel has been around for sixty years now and this is the first pandemic this serious that we have seen.
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Old 10-16-2020, 08:26 AM
  #1027  
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Originally Posted by ACEssXfer View Post
In September? Guess it must be different now. I used to go back to school anywhere from sep 1-10. There were never any breaks until Thanksgiving.

My schools go back mid-August so fall break comes first half of October.
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Old 10-16-2020, 09:42 AM
  #1028  
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Yeah, colleges have a lot more breaks built in for some reason. Used to be Thanksgiving and Spring Break and that was it (other than Christmas and summer between semesters). But with how much more sensitive kids are these days more breaks are needed.
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Old 10-16-2020, 12:44 PM
  #1029  
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My kids' schools start back in mid-late July (...yeah...) but have two weeks for fall break in a normal year, and also have two weeks for spring break with the school year wrapping the last week of May.

Due to COVID, each break is "only" one week.

When I was a kid, fall break was I think a three or maybe four day weekend and we had one week for spring break.
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Old 10-16-2020, 12:46 PM
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Originally Posted by BoilerUP View Post
My kids' schools start back in mid-late July (...yeah...) but have two weeks for fall break in a normal year, and also have two weeks for spring break with the school year wrapping the last week of May.

Due to COVID, each break is "only" one week.

When I was a kid, fall break was I think a three or maybe four day weekend and we had one week for spring break.
I know this is common in rural farming areas where the kids are needed for Spring planting and Fall harvest.
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