I read the reports in the original post with interest.

I will say that the situation here in Germany is much worse now than it was during spring last year, which is the time frame the study looked at. At the time we seemed to be doing much better than many european countries. Now not so much. We are not the worst hit but also not the least affected. Not sure if what they found out from the first wave translates directly to the second or third one.

It also says the following in the first link in the original post:

"The efficacy of lockdown orders has been a hotly debated topic since the start of the pandemic.

Though this study's approach did not determine any significant benefits to implementing mandatory lockdowns, others have shown that lockdowns have saved millions of lives.

A study published by researchers at Imperial College London in June found that some 3.1 million deaths had been averted due to lockdowns across Europe early on in the pandemic, Reuters reported. Additional research found that 530 million coronavirus infections had been avoided due to early lockdowns in China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France and the United States, according to the news outlet."

So I guess it's fair that say that the science is far from settled on lockdowns.

Personally I think these continued half-assed lockdowns are the worst of both worlds. They cause significant pain and suffering and perhsps not enough benefit. I think a very strict two week lockdown including stopping all non essential work outside people's homes, would really have an effect and buy some time until enough people are vaccinated to make sure those most at risk will be safe and won't overburden the health system. I don't see this happening in the US though. I kind of hope we go that way in Germany. Everyone stays home for two weeks as if everyone had the virus. That should drop numbers dramatically and buy us a few more weeks which might be all we need. We could then lift most restrictions.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolo...e-mistake/amp/

That Imperial College Model lost most all scientific credibility and we determined making policy decisions based on that flawed model was a huge mistake.

 

I did indeed. However, I guess there is other work with more positive conclusions regarding the effect of lockdowns on virus spread. In any event, all I'm saying is I think the science is far from settled.

And I think it's very likely, almost certain, that a short, very strict lockdown, as in we treat everyone ad if they were infected and allow only the most essential work to be conducted for two weeks, would have a huge positive effect with only limited economic impact as opposed to the continuing lockdowns in various forms across my country and Europe. In a few more weeks to s couple of months those most at risk will be vaccinated if they want and then we should quickly go back towards normal.

 

Sure that may seem logical to you, but this is not how it works. The number one location for the spread of Covid? Your own home. You are going to lock people up together in poorly ventilated locations and spread it even faster. Two weeks won’t do anything. And neither will two months. The virus is going to virus.

 

Don’t even bother. Your common sense approach is too much to handle.

 

Ok your whole family has it, for two weeks. Then what? How is that going to infect others? The virus won’t virus anymore since it died in your household. That’s what he’s saying. That’s how most countries have kept this under control with much less impact than here.

 

The problem is they don’t fully get rid of it.... and then it comes back and the process is done over again. Best suited for small population /well sealed off (NZ,Australia,South Korea) countries...
but Europe, North and South Americas not so much.

 

Are you seriously that stupid?

Let md show you why this doesn’t work.

1) 4 people enter two week ISOLATION in the same household (not quarantine)
2) 1 of them unknowingly has Covid
3) On day 3, that person shows symptoms.
4) 5 days after that, person 2 starts showing symptoms.
5) And so on and so forth.

After two weeks you’ve now let MORE Covid spreaders out into the world. Total idiocy.

Not to mention that the following places will have to continue to operate, therefore there will still be community spread:

Hospitals
Pharmacies
Fire Rescue
Police
Utilities

I suspect in your utopian world grocery stores can close because the government will send food to every house. That’s why I left them off the list.

ISOLATING EVERYONE DOESN’T WORK. Nor do all of the BS restrictions. Mask up (and even with that I question it’s efficacy), stay home if sick, get the vaccine. It’s not that difficult.

 

Lol... no country has kept this under control except East Asian countries who already have cross immunity in the population. And even they are seeing spikes. (I would advocate if you take the insane PCR testing away it actually is under control and no worse than a bad flu season. Back in the 2017 flu season hospitals were opening tents up too to take care of the demand) A forced complete lockdown is not only unethical and a totalitarian act it would do nothing the moment things open back up. And worse, you would have decreased immunity coming out of it. When you do get sick it would be worse. Your advocating for something that would be catastrophic. As for Germany... https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EreOqMqV...name=4096x4096

 

Because the quarantine for someone who lives with someone else with Covid is 10 days after the person they were exposed to is no longer contagious. If you live with someone and they get sick on the 9th day then that person is contagious for 10 days or longer. People in that household then are potentially at risk for getting sick for another ten days. So now you are at 9+10+10 = 29 days.