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Old 05-11-2017, 09:16 AM
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Default Legacy Fleet Comparison

Where might one look for a current, apples-to-apples fleet comparison between the legacy passenger airlines? A mid-30s military friend who is willing to live in any domicile is trying to decide whom to prioritize. He wants to fly international and it seems like Chicago with United would be pretty ideal. They appear to have almost 100 777s including orders (APC profile, but I don't know if it's accurate), and FOs with 2 years can hold it? 787 options in HOU and SFO look good too. He has zero interest in cargo.
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Old 05-11-2017, 09:47 AM
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Originally Posted by TED74 View Post
Where might one look for a current, apples-to-apples fleet comparison between the legacy passenger airlines? A mid-30s military friend who is willing to live in any domicile is trying to decide whom to prioritize. He wants to fly international and it seems like Chicago with United would be pretty ideal. They appear to have almost 100 777s including orders (APC profile, but I don't know if it's accurate), and FOs with 2 years can hold it? 787 options in HOU and SFO look good too. He has zero interest in cargo.
I think APC is a pretty good place to start. Other than that, maybe the ALPA scope committee report and I think there are government filings by each airline that provide fleet information.
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Old 05-11-2017, 09:53 AM
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Wikipedia has a nice breakdown of airline fleets and orders
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Old 05-11-2017, 09:57 AM
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SEC 10-K filings have end of year fleet, orders and options numbers.

From UAL:

NOTE 15 - COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCIES
Commitments. As of December 31, 2016, United had firm commitments and options to purchase aircraft from The Boeing Company (“Boeing”), Embraer and Airbus presented in the table below:

Aircraft Type

Number of Firm
Commitments (a)

Airbus A350-1000
35

Boeing 737NG/737MAX
165

Boeing 777-300ER
12

Boeing 787-8/-9/-10
21

Embraer E175
24

(a) United also has options and purchase rights for additional aircraft.

The aircraft listed in the table above are scheduled for delivery from 2017 through 2027. To the extent the Company and the aircraft manufacturers with whom the Company has existing orders for new aircraft agree to modify the contracts governing those orders, the amount and timing of the Company’s future capital commitments could change.


Table of Contents
The table below summarizes United’s commitments as of December 31, 2016, which primarily relate to the acquisition of aircraft and related spare engines, aircraft improvements and include other capital purchase commitments for the years ended December 31 (in billions). Any new firm aircraft orders, including through the exercise of purchase options and purchase rights, will increase the total future capital commitments of the Company.

In the first quarter of 2017, the Company announced that it will retire its fleet of Boeing 747 aircraft from scheduled service by the end of 2017. The Company does not expect there to be a material impact to depreciation and amortization expense.
As of December 31, 2016, United had $1.3 billion in financing available through EETC transactions for the financing of all of its aircraft deliveries scheduled in the first half of 2017. See Note 11 of this report for additional information on aircraft financing. The Company has also secured backstop financing commitments from certain of its aircraft manufacturers for a limited number of its future aircraft deliveries, subject to certain customary conditions. Financing may be necessary to satisfy the Company’s capital commitments for its firm order aircraft and other related capital expenditures.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...htm#tx300268_5

Last edited by notEnuf; 05-11-2017 at 10:12 AM.
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:44 AM
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Thanks folks. Lots of ways to skin this cat. With one methodology, UAL is the clear winner in wide bodies. Of course, other approaches will yield different results. I just added up active and ordered true wide bodies (ignored 757 and ignored retirement plans), primarily because I can't guarantee the pay methodologies will be similar across brands for the next two decades.

UAL: 26% widebody
DL: 17% widebody
AA: 15% widebody
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:48 AM
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Houston 787 is closing in October. Two years to WB. Eh I doubt it. Maybe SFO, but eternal reserve and that base does a lot of domestic. United is gonna be stagnant until the parking of the 747 and cascading effects shake out.
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:55 AM
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Not sure if this matters to him but take a look at the quarterly profits for each carrier as well. Delta is conservative but made 600M or so last quarter compared to United's 130M and American at 308M. I love new airplanes but after the last 15 years I love a company that knows how to make money more.

Last edited by Hawaii50; 05-11-2017 at 11:29 AM.
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Old 05-11-2017, 11:08 AM
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Today's fleets won't necessarily correlate to future results. If he truly doesn't mind being based in any city to get to WB the quickest, then I'd argue he seems to have a very myopic view of the industry. He seems to have what the regional guys call "shiny jet syndrome." Essentially, chasing the biggest, newest, baddest thing in the air some times at the expense of wiser career decisions. What if he wants to have a family some day? There's so much more involved than picking from the current crop of WB fleets.

Step 1 is applying and getting the interviews and CJOs.

Step 2: the "Decision" only comes if he gets more than one choice of CJOs.

What if his ideal legacy never calls? I'd encourage him not to put the cart before the horse and expand his list of haves and have nots when pursuing a legacy.


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Old 05-11-2017, 11:18 AM
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Originally Posted by Hawaii50 View Post
Not sure if this matters to him but take a look at the quarterly profits for each carriers as well. Delta is conservative but made 600M or so last quarter compared to United's 130M and American at 308M. I love new airplanes but after the last 15 years I love a company that knows how to make money more.
This...

Plus Delta has less debt than AA and UAL. When a economic downturn hits, we have more chances to survive.
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Old 05-11-2017, 11:19 AM
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Originally Posted by intrepidcv11 View Post
Houston 787 is closing in October. Two years to WB. Eh I doubt it. Maybe SFO, but eternal reserve and that base does a lot of domestic. United is gonna be stagnant until the parking of the 747 and cascading effects shake out.
Where does the 777 fly out of SFO? I've heard reserve isn't bad if you live in base.

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