Not even close. There are Indoc classes running this summer for pilots. Senior Manning (our version of green slips) are off the charts.

We have 2 things happening simultaneously. One is parking of the 747s while taking on 18 new 777s and 4 more 787s and 737s as well as A-319s that arrive every month. All this before Jan 1st. Getting everyone "retrained" from the 747 is backing up our training center and there is a ripple effect.

Combine this with significant construction at our training center to accommodate the new simulators, as well as moving the ones from IAH (the old CAL training center) means we can't start new hire classes right now.

There is no halt on training since we are getting even more WB planes that have much higher staffing than NB planes, plus retirements. Its temporary because of those two events happening at the same time.

Also, we have summer Indoc classes of pilots returning from various leaves and furloughs of the past.

Off the street hires don't start up again until November and it'll be crazy hiring for the foreseeable future.

 

Does that mean hiring is suspended until November?

Good info on the current status of UAL, thanks.

 

Thanks for the info. We had a similar situation couple years ago when hiring was slowed for construction at HQ for more Sims. Helped create the "Summer of Love" on the 717

 

Has anyone really looked at the other issue DAL, UAL and AA are going to face in a few years? Forget the Black Swan, what happens when there are no longer 1,000 pilots a year to hire (at each... and don't forget the others)? It is likely going to happen in a few years.

When the economy turns the company comes after pay rates, when staffing becomes an issue they come after work rules. Delta could easily operate with 3K less pilots if they got rid of a few days off here and there, go to min duty instead of min calendar... and on and on. Keep an eye out.

 

The one change to what SWA has which is no pickup limit would be devasting to manning. Probably not 3000 jobs but certainly in the thousands.

 

We already don't have a pick up limit, just not at straight pay.

 

Off the street Indoc classes, yes. Management has decided to kick the staffing can down the road. Last December we had a weekly Indoc class with 75 new hires. They broke it into 3 sections. Fortunately, new hires are going to 737, Airbus, and 757/767 fleet, so they can spread them out for training. When it starts up again in November, its going to have to be substantial.

Also, management put out a memo to the pilots saying they needed more new hire interviewers for the fall and asked for volunteers.

 

HB1B visas?
There are quite a pilots who would love to come here.

Expats returning?
Many would like to come back.

'Lower tier' new hires?
It always cracks me up when I hear, "OMG, we might have to take 'lower tier' pilots." By whose subjective standard? Remember Erich Hartmann? He was at one time considered 'lower tier' after some difficulties. Went on to have 352 confirmed kills in WWII. 'Lower tier' often becomes 'upper tier' due to many factors.

There will be no pilot shortage.

 

Yeah, it is seldom you hear of someone who can't make it through training. Yet most airlines turn down great pilots and they go on to have great careers at other airlines... So why didn't they just hire them in the first place.

Plenty fail the "Testing" at Delta, move on to American or United and have successful careers.

Plenty who fail the Hogan go to Delta and American.. then United still has Captains show in their pajamas to work and rant to the passengers about their divorce...

Just go with the HR interview and see if you like the person. Quit it with the hazing BS and you will hold off on the shortage for a while.

 

ER Flyer:
I am in agreement w/you.

I rarely post here but this "pilot shortage" mantra is driving me crazy! In 1 minute I was able to find numerous pilots on our seniority list with 2059 mandatory retire dates (which makes them 23 yrs old at a major). For the same reason people flocked away from the airline pilot career post 2001, it will bring them back....pay and QOL. Restore the profession and people will migrate back. It doesn't take 10 yrs to make a pilot.

These young hires are not the norm, yet, but with pay and QOL advances, more and more will consider this as a career again. The aviation schools are packed, the RJ world is adjusting the best they can with incentives (doubt it will help long-term) and the Majors still have a big pile of well qualified pilots looking for work in the short-term. JMTCW