Delta To Furlough?
05-06-2020 | 01:12 PM
#1721
Racketeer
Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 13,242
Likes: 702
From: N60.4858 W149.9327
I can respect that, if that's what's happening. But mass fleet parking and multi thousand furloughs (implimented, not just announced for the future) will prove they are panic collapsing to profitability which cost many times more than it saves even for the medium term, and that they are doing so on a bad data snapshot. Whatever we do, it doesn't have to be set in stone for the magical Oct 1 "deadline".
Zero chance of that. Find any seat map with a 6' ring around every pax and count the LF. That's not just middle seat blocking, its more like 1 pax per 9 seat section. Even if we could lock in today's fuel prices that's not viable even for a little bit. I guarantee that's not the long or medium term plan. If it was, we'd need a fleet of thousands of planes to "fy the plan" and would need to ramp up hiring immediately.
I agree they don't know yet, and its understandable they don't know yet. What I'm concerned about is that they feel forced to solidify long term and irreversable big moves based on rediculously bad data snapshots right now. There's no doubt they feel enormous peer pressure from the analcyct types to out do United's panic displacement as just one example.
As for October, while that may be a CARES Act issue to some extent WRT workers, that isn't a firm deadline WRT medium term fleet plans. A significant amount of demand will have returned prior to that, we just don't know how much. But cutting to worst case projections guarantees the outcome is devastating. At least we'll finally get to see if we truly have the world's greatest team ever assembled or not. It won't be worth the price of admission, but still really interesting to find out.
Zero chance of that. Find any seat map with a 6' ring around every pax and count the LF. That's not just middle seat blocking, its more like 1 pax per 9 seat section. Even if we could lock in today's fuel prices that's not viable even for a little bit. I guarantee that's not the long or medium term plan. If it was, we'd need a fleet of thousands of planes to "fy the plan" and would need to ramp up hiring immediately.
I agree they don't know yet, and its understandable they don't know yet. What I'm concerned about is that they feel forced to solidify long term and irreversable big moves based on rediculously bad data snapshots right now. There's no doubt they feel enormous peer pressure from the analcyct types to out do United's panic displacement as just one example.
As for October, while that may be a CARES Act issue to some extent WRT workers, that isn't a firm deadline WRT medium term fleet plans. A significant amount of demand will have returned prior to that, we just don't know how much. But cutting to worst case projections guarantees the outcome is devastating. At least we'll finally get to see if we truly have the world's greatest team ever assembled or not. It won't be worth the price of admission, but still really interesting to find out.
You just seem concerned about things that don’t matter. Our management has always thouught and acted independently and with capacity discipline, I expect that to continue. They will destroy any traction by flooding the market with unsold seats. ULCC are not a threat if we do it to ourselves. This will be like watching the returns on election night. Just go to bed because they won’t know until the morning anyway and there will be recounts so certainty will be delayed until the judge (passengers) rule on the winners and losers.
05-06-2020 | 04:15 PM
#1722
Banned
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,317
Likes: 0
From: The Beginnings
.OMG. I just spit my beverage all over my monitor. I don’t think that’s my kind of merge.
05-06-2020 | 05:21 PM
#1723
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 20,871
Likes: 189
Google is your friend. Airlines have been offering 100% cash or 120% for credits. In addition many people have chosen to cancel their flights prior to the flight itself being canceled. You only get a credit in that case. A cash payment is only required if your flight does not operate and you hold a ticket when it was canceled and the airline is unable to offer alternative flights that get you there within a reasonable time frame. Most people are canceling trips to soon to get cash. That’s also why airlines are carrying many flights until the last minute.
05-06-2020 | 07:48 PM
#1724
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 2,058
Likes: 2
From: Capt
05-07-2020 | 07:40 AM
#1725
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 12,823
Likes: 169
From: window seat
It didn't say load factors or even seats sold will end up being +38% at travel time, because that wouldn't be possible, as there was nowhere near that many seats remaining. Most flights during that peak season are 90-100% full or more with overselling. But not all seats sold for Nov-Jan are sold by late April-mid May. Most tickets are purchased in later months closer to travel time. So if its a YoY comparison for the same snapshot points, that's very good news and is very easily "remotely accurate".
The combination of pent up demand, cabin fever, separation from one's family and friends and probably some nice fare sales could easily up the bookings this far out by that percentage. It didn't just look at Thanksgiving but also other winter holidays. I understand erring on the side of caution and I'm not suggesting the most junior pilots go pay top dollar in red hot housing markets based on 200 hours a month of GS pay or now's the time to get that new speedboat. Someone looked at one data point and saw some good news. That's all.
05-07-2020 | 09:47 AM
#1728
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 12,823
Likes: 169
From: window seat
All United has done so far is present a plan that leans towards the bad end of the zone of likely possibilities that allows them to have the flexibility to go deeper than is likely needed. They announced what they did specifically as an engineered solution to avoid a massive contractual endless training waterfall where thousands of pilots get multipile paid trips to Virginia Av....uh, I mean downtown DEN...same difference?...so they have flexibility. Even when actual notices go out, that doesn't mean its the number that will hapen on 10-01 and for some perhaps even at all.
05-07-2020 | 10:30 AM
#1729
Line Holder
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 662
Likes: 9
https://www.audriesaircraftanalysis....ff-reductions/
basic model shows Furlough break even point for company at 13 months. Add in some early out or SIL and it can stretch the break even point to 18 months. The fact we’re working on summer 2021 fleet plan should be good news. Still in the Time Bucket.
basic model shows Furlough break even point for company at 13 months. Add in some early out or SIL and it can stretch the break even point to 18 months. The fact we’re working on summer 2021 fleet plan should be good news. Still in the Time Bucket.
05-07-2020 | 11:33 AM
#1730
On Reserve
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 184
Likes: 1
From: B757/B767
https://www.audriesaircraftanalysis....ff-reductions/
basic model shows Furlough break even point for company at 13 months. Add in some early out or SIL and it can stretch the break even point to 18 months. The fact we’re working on summer 2021 fleet plan should be good news. Still in the Time Bucket.
basic model shows Furlough break even point for company at 13 months. Add in some early out or SIL and it can stretch the break even point to 18 months. The fact we’re working on summer 2021 fleet plan should be good news. Still in the Time Bucket.
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