How Soon Will COVID-19 Peak? (How To Tell)
03-31-2020, 06:35 AM
#41
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Joined APC: Sep 2017
Posts: 905
Originally Posted by atpcliff
A death rate of 1.8, would be 18 x the current US death rate for the common flu, which is 0.1. And, the death rate of 0.1 is with hundreds of thousands of Americans getting vaccinated.
The average annual US death rate from the flu, over the years 2011-2019 is 37,400.deaths. If we actually have a death rate from the CVirus of 1.8%, then we should expect less than 700,000 deaths in the US this year. The current death rate (deaths/deaths + recovered) for the US on 30Mar is 0.4, which is 4x the flu death rate. The actual death rate won't be known until the virus is over.
A BIG problem, which many (including myself) overlooked at first, is that the death rates from the Cvirus doesn't count those who die of other causes, because medical personnel, hospital beds, ICU beds, operating rooms, etc. are not available. If we overrun our hospitals, then many people will die from accidents, diseases, ongoing medical issues, etc., that cannot get lifesaving medical care.
The average annual US death rate from the flu, over the years 2011-2019 is 37,400.deaths. If we actually have a death rate from the CVirus of 1.8%, then we should expect less than 700,000 deaths in the US this year. The current death rate (deaths/deaths + recovered) for the US on 30Mar is 0.4, which is 4x the flu death rate. The actual death rate won't be known until the virus is over.
A BIG problem, which many (including myself) overlooked at first, is that the death rates from the Cvirus doesn't count those who die of other causes, because medical personnel, hospital beds, ICU beds, operating rooms, etc. are not available. If we overrun our hospitals, then many people will die from accidents, diseases, ongoing medical issues, etc., that cannot get lifesaving medical care.
In the mean time we are moving into the Second Great Depression, we have given control of our lives to the government and at the same time are causing huge inflation due to quantitative easing and the giant stimulus package. Good luck everyone.
03-31-2020, 06:44 AM
#42
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Joined APC: Sep 2017
Posts: 905
Fauci
As a matter of fact Fauci reported in the New England Journal of Medicine the the death rate will be similar to bad seasonal flu. Ruined economy just a little worse in my opinion. See here:
https://justthenews.com/politics-pol...e-public-virus
https://justthenews.com/politics-pol...e-public-virus
03-31-2020, 06:54 AM
#43
Bracing for Fallacies
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
Posts: 3,543
Originally Posted by interceptorpilo
I believe our country can recover and thrive if the mortality for people who contract COVID is 1.8% or less (very probably lower IMO). I do not think our country as we know it can recover from the economic DEPRESSION that our reaction to the disease has caused.
Filler.
03-31-2020, 08:16 AM
#44
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Joined APC: Sep 2015
Posts: 438
Pretty good article on suspected Chinese smuggling of virus samples in carry on luggage.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/suspected...144526820.html
https://www.yahoo.com/news/suspected...144526820.html
03-31-2020, 08:36 AM
#45
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Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 4,116
Originally Posted by 53x11
Pretty good article on suspected Chinese smuggling of virus samples in carry on luggage.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/suspected...144526820.html
https://www.yahoo.com/news/suspected...144526820.html
12 monkeys.
04-02-2020, 09:51 PM
#46
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Position: Capt
Posts: 3,215
Originally Posted by interceptorpilo
As a matter of fact Fauci reported in the New England Journal of Medicine the the death rate will be similar to bad seasonal flu. Ruined economy just a little worse in my opinion. See here:
https://justthenews.com/politics-pol...e-public-virus
https://justthenews.com/politics-pol...e-public-virus
04-02-2020, 10:10 PM
#47
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Joined APC: Mar 2007
Position: Capt
Posts: 3,215
3Apr Cvirus Stats
Note: The death rate changes constantly, and the true death rate will not be known until the pandemic is over. The average death rate for the common flu, and the number of deaths per year from the flu, varies a lot each year, for a variety of reasons.
[US FLU Average Death Rate: 0.1]
Note: Tens of millions of US residents are vaccinated for the flu each year. We are hoping to get an emergency vaccine for the Cvirus available here in the US in 2021. Current worldwide stats for the Cvirus are without any vaccine.
Cvirus Death Rate:
South Korea: 0.03
Germany: 0.05
Canada: 0.07
Iran: 0.16
Worldwide: 0.20
Spain: 0.28
Belgium 0.29
France: 0.30
US Death Rate: 0.40
New York: 0.40
Average US Flu Deaths Yearly (CDC estimates 2011-2019): 37,400.
If the current death rate of 0.4 continues in the US, then we can expect about 150,000 US Cvirus deaths this year. If we can get it down to the current Worldwide death rate, we should expect about 75,000 US deaths.
Note: The estimated deaths are ONLY from the Cvirus, and doesn't count those who die of other causes, because medical personnel, hospital beds, ICU beds, operating rooms, etc. are not available. If we overrun our hospitals, then many people will die from accidents, diseases, ongoing medical issues, etc., that cannot get lifesaving medical care.
Italy Death Rate: 0.43
Note: The death rate changes constantly, and the true death rate will not be known until the pandemic is over. The average death rate for the common flu, and the number of deaths per year from the flu, varies a lot each year, for a variety of reasons.
[US FLU Average Death Rate: 0.1]
Note: Tens of millions of US residents are vaccinated for the flu each year. We are hoping to get an emergency vaccine for the Cvirus available here in the US in 2021. Current worldwide stats for the Cvirus are without any vaccine.
Cvirus Death Rate:
South Korea: 0.03
Germany: 0.05
Canada: 0.07
Iran: 0.16
Worldwide: 0.20
Spain: 0.28
Belgium 0.29
France: 0.30
US Death Rate: 0.40
New York: 0.40
Average US Flu Deaths Yearly (CDC estimates 2011-2019): 37,400.
If the current death rate of 0.4 continues in the US, then we can expect about 150,000 US Cvirus deaths this year. If we can get it down to the current Worldwide death rate, we should expect about 75,000 US deaths.
Note: The estimated deaths are ONLY from the Cvirus, and doesn't count those who die of other causes, because medical personnel, hospital beds, ICU beds, operating rooms, etc. are not available. If we overrun our hospitals, then many people will die from accidents, diseases, ongoing medical issues, etc., that cannot get lifesaving medical care.
Italy Death Rate: 0.43
04-03-2020, 05:22 AM
#48
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Joined APC: Sep 2015
Position: I got into this business so I wouldn't have to work.
Posts: 1,034
Originally Posted by atpcliff
justthenews website is known to repost conspiracy theories and fake news often.
John Solomon is as nutty as a fruitcake.
Except nothing he's published has been refuted.
04-03-2020, 09:59 AM
#50
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Joined APC: May 2017
Position: Airbus
Posts: 824
Originally Posted by 53x11
Pretty good article on suspected Chinese smuggling of virus samples in carry on luggage.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/suspected...144526820.html
https://www.yahoo.com/news/suspected...144526820.html
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