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sailingfun 09-18-2020 12:28 PM


Originally Posted by RogSmitty (Post 3131304)
I can’t square your statement with the aggregate. It doesn’t explain what is going on in the right seat. Of course they awarded CA positions vacated due to the VEOP. They didn’t come close on the FO side.

Tbey are short in the right seat on the 350 and 330. 30 new 350 FO’s AE awarded and almost 120 A330 FO AE awards. Did not even bother to look at the reinstatement’s but I bet there were a bunch.

Omar 111 09-18-2020 12:40 PM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 3131489)
Tbey are short in the right seat on the 350 and 330. 30 new 350 FO’s AE awarded and almost 120 A330 FO AE awards. Did not even bother to look at the reinstatement’s but I bet there were a bunch.

70 A350B’s and 220 A330A’s reinstated.

Denny Crane 09-18-2020 12:54 PM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 3131269)
I was speaking of staffing for next summer. In fact wasn’t your ER delayed because they need you next summer?
P.S. Take a look at NYC and ATL open time. Traditionally there is little to no 330 open time in the fall.

Sooooo the point was wide body categories would feel the lower ALV more so than others with a targeted ALV reduction. You have just verified that could happen for the next 6 months.....?

Yes, it was delayed until 9/1/2020

Denny

Denny Crane 09-18-2020 01:01 PM


Originally Posted by Corndog (Post 3131367)
Don’t they just traditionally use them going season to season? Isn’t that what they have been pointing out?

It’s going to be hard to convince me that paying someone to not work is a meaningful way to help keep workers on the payroll. It also doesn’t seem like the fact that they negotiated the right to offer them, but decided not to, is reason for pitchforks and lifelong trust issues. The stuff that happened before and during the last bankruptcy would probably have me disillusioned and distrustful though.

Its nice that you acknowledge the distrust of those of us here during BK. Maybe you should learn from it? I can fully see the company taking advantage of BK again and any deals before then will most certainly be considered by a BK judge as a starting point.

Denny

Scoop 09-18-2020 01:08 PM


Originally Posted by Corndog (Post 3131351)
Fair enough. Those events destroyed lives and families. With the gravity of losses and continued reduced demand, there is no guarantee they won’t furlough, ask for more concessions, or use bankruptcy down the road. I would be surprised to see a LONGER TERM (longer than 6 months or so maybe?) no-furlough agreement. It would disappoint me if they offer it because it would be an obvious lie to think they know at this stage that they can keep that promise. Bankruptcy is definitely a possibility without a meaningful rebound as well.

I still think an ALV cut is a very different staffing solution than a rate cut (especially 32%). I also believe SILs are harmful to jobs vs. an ALV cut.

But I wasn’t here for the bankruptcy and I would probably think differently if I was, especially with the same executive on the team. Was there anything like an ALV cut offered then?


CD,

You bring up many valid points that we should all take into consideration. There is really no right and wrong with a lot of these issues but mostly opinions. With that said, it appears the majority of the Pilot group are having a hard time trusting management.

In regards to an ALV back then I believe we were still Line of Time (LOT) bidding so it was not a factor.

Scoop

XJ86 09-18-2020 01:20 PM


Originally Posted by Stinsat7 (Post 3130858)
Thanks for letter John, but I trust my union not you.

Hahahhaa yeah right

Corndog 09-18-2020 01:21 PM


Originally Posted by Denny Crane (Post 3131506)
Its nice that you acknowledge the distrust of those of us here during BK. Maybe you should learn from it? I can fully see the company taking advantage of BK again and any deals before then will most certainly be considered by a BK judge as a starting point.

Denny

I hear you. Keeping furloughs around another 6 months would be worth that risk of leverage later in my opinion. I definitely acknowledge it’s there and am open to changing my mind

sailingfun 09-18-2020 01:27 PM


Originally Posted by Denny Crane (Post 3131506)
Its nice that you acknowledge the distrust of those of us here during BK. Maybe you should learn from it? I can fully see the company taking advantage of BK again and any deals before then will most certainly be considered by a BK judge as a starting point.

Denny

It would be great for us if a judge would consider a reduced ALV if Delta files bankruptcy. Delta will demand as high a ALV as the court will grant it in chapter 11. If you say the judge will consider the reduced ALV as a baseline that’s simply great news!

notEnuf 09-18-2020 01:47 PM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 3131535)
It would be great for us if a judge would consider a reduced ALV if Delta files bankruptcy. Delta will demand as high a ALV as the court will grant it in chapter 11. If you say the judge will consider the reduced ALV as a baseline that’s simply great news!

I'd bet that they would use the aggregate cost argument and target a lower rate and a higher ALV in bankruptcy.

BTW, do you expect to be bumping the high end of ALVs next summer in all fleets?

At a 60% of 2019 level we would need 8800 pilots and at 80% we would need 11750. PJ just said 75% of 2019 is the new high end target (conveniently lower) so max would be 11025. With 333 mandatory retirements by the end of the summer 2021 that means seniority # 12083 will be needed next summer. Add in your guess for medicals, SLI vacancies etc. and we are approaching the entire current list at 12947. I don't think ALVs will be running high by next summer unless the plan all along was to furlough and be skinny for a repeat of 2019 GS-apalooza. Is this what you mean by high ALVs?

LandGreen2 09-18-2020 02:25 PM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 3131237)
The company can simply furlough and get a greater cost savings.


yep they can and lose tactical ability to respond to SW and other LCCs when they flood the market.


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