Nantonaku

It won't stop the government from spending. And the Feds from wrecking the economy with their out of control 2 year behind the time policies. You think R's or D's have the stomach for tax hikes and benefit cuts?

Bonjovi

“You’ve got another thing coming”. Lulz. My 2nd wife told me that. Nutball…

DeltaboundRedux

After covid relief bills that issued direct payments to tax (and non-tax) payers, a Ukraine bailout to defense contractors, free money to many industries (ours included) without a single tax increase (let alone a cut in another area), I don't see any party being willing to "RAISE TAXES".

Or cut spending.

As for crypto? "It's limited!! It's like gold!! Limited supply will force fiscal discipline!!"

The old adage: "If you need a gold standard to control a corrupt government, that government is corrupt enough to find a way around it."

gloopy

LOL!

That ain't going to happen. They may make a token reduction in a yearly budget to show a "reduction in the deficit" to fool Manchin into something, but they will continue to shovel trillions more of debt that can't ever be repaid, and ass the BRIC and other nations get too uppity and threaten the petro dollar, desperate fools desperate for control will do desperate things.

JustNarced

It is possible. My theory is that all the chaos ends when BTC = 0, S&P 500 and housing are back to 2019 levels plus normal inflation.

JustNarced

High oil prices are already causing inventory builds, demand is being crushed. Diesel is actually down where I live.

Possibilities on energy:

1. Putin dies, Zelenski gets thrown under the bus. Russia gets Crimea Donbass and Luhansk. The war ends, Russia and NATO agree on some boundaries, Russia is forced to pay restitution and Russian oil is allowed back into western markets leading to another glut like 2020. Oil crashes back to <60 in time for a global recession. Russia (the new leader) pulls support for an invasion of Taiwan, China ends up with potentially a two-front war and realizes TSMC isn't worth it. BTC dies.

2. WW3, rationing and nationalization of oil exploration and production.

3. Dollar loses relevancy and oil continues to inflate higher.

4. Nothing changes through 2024 and oil companies need to replace oil borrowed from the SPR plus 15%. This more than offsets the reduction in usage from a recession and oil continues to explode higher. Most Americans are priced into smaller vehicles and mass transportation, 3/4 ton diesel trucks show up on used car lots.

JustNarced

iow, 50/50/90

Trip7

Oil is not crashing below $60 unless there is another COVID19/Black Swan event. Same for Natural Gas and Coal. Even if there was no Russia/Ukraine war, Energy supplies will be significantly constrained for at least the next 2-3 years because of the years of underinvestment in the sector due to overemphasis on Green/Renewable Energy. Moreover, it will at least 2 years for growth capital expenses paid today to make a sizable increase in supply to drop Oil and Natural Gas prices. Nobody is doing growth capital expenses in Coal so that creates even more of an energy crunch. Going to be an interesting next couple of years

tripled

Guess it’s time to go nuclear. Since we’re now just speculating about what the next 5 years will bring.

JustNarced

If you said lets build a 3Gw plant today, half of the DL seniority list would be retired before it turned out its first Kw.

It looks like the ECB called an emergency meeting to raise rates ahead of the Fed. They are tag teaming BTC.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...ng-2022-06-15/