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-   -   30 321NEO orders converted - good news (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/delta/134789-30-321neo-orders-converted-good-news.html)

PilotBases 09-08-2021 10:29 AM


Originally Posted by GogglesPisano (Post 3292019)
JFK/LAX and SFO have been exclusively Delta One (up front) for almost 10 years.

Right now they’re also getting the 764 updated Delta One suites too. Biggest issue with 752 D1 is some seats with no direct aisle access.

JetBlue on the original Mint 321s does a staggered 2-1-2 down each side of the aisle so one can buy a solo seat if they want. On their LRs, it’s all 1 and 1. American on the 321T also offers 1-1 seating in their first.

172skychicken 09-08-2021 10:31 AM


Originally Posted by gloopy (Post 3292008)
Likely. But I also wonder when (not if) DL will deploy 321's to some TA routes. CASM is king with RASM not far behind, at least on paper. If JB is successful in sniping lay flat customers on their terms as much as they want to grow into it, DL, UA and AA will have no choice but to fight back with everything they have.

I doubt the footprint would expand much from what the 757 was doing precovid. If the lie flat 757s weren't able to generate enough CASM advantage vs the current generation 767 and A330 to justify keeping them on more TATL routes, I don't see how the A321 with 140 some seats does against the A350 or A339 either. From the RASM side of the house, we can make all the jokes we want about there being no money in cargo, but the narrowbodies are much less capable cargo lifters. A huge reason air freight prices soared with COVID was that so much capacity operated by passenger carriers essentially evaporated overnight. We may never operate dedicated freighters again, but that revenue is still a key component of our transatlantic operation. The lie flat product on the 757s is in desperate need of a refresh. My bet is that those are configured into the 199 seat domestic configuration as the A321s with lie flats come on property.

GogglesPisano 09-08-2021 10:31 AM


Originally Posted by PilotBases (Post 3292023)
Right now they’re also getting the 764 updated Delta One suites too. Biggest issue with 752 D1 is some seats with no direct aisle access.

JetBlue on the original Mint 321s does a staggered 2-1-2 down each side of the aisle so one can buy a solo seat if they want. On their LRs, it’s all 1 and 1. American on the 321T also offers 1-1 seating in their first.

We need to up our 757 cabin then. Crawling over a stranger is so Basic Economy.

PilotBases 09-08-2021 10:37 AM


Originally Posted by GogglesPisano (Post 3292025)
We need to up our 757 cabin then. Crawling over a stranger is so Basic Economy.

My guess is the focus will be on the upcoming 321s that were mentioned above. Put the new and shiny on the money routes, especially when you have GTFs rather than PW2000s. I see the 757 increasingly relegated to domestic hops where the fuel burn is less an issue. The fuel burn on the 321neo is simply staggering, we’re talking just above a current gen RJ.

This is one hell of a good product. Don’t think I care narrowbody v widebody while sitting in that seat.

https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2021/0...d-mint-studio/

iaflyer 09-08-2021 10:50 AM


Originally Posted by The Localizer (Post 3289345)
A quick look at the fleet count page shows the company has different plans for this last batch of Neo orders
lie flat seats

I can really see the A321 with lie flat going head to head with Jetblue out of Boston to Europe, and JFK to close-in Europe destinations. Sorta what we did in 2008 with the 757s we got from TWA.

gloopy 09-08-2021 10:51 AM


Originally Posted by 172skychicken (Post 3292024)
I doubt the footprint would expand much from what the 757 was doing precovid. If the lie flat 757s weren't able to generate enough CASM advantage vs the current generation 767 and A330 to justify keeping them on more TATL routes, I don't see how the A321 with 140 some seats does against the A350 or A339 either. From the RASM side of the house, we can make all the jokes we want about there being no money in cargo, but the narrowbodies are much less capable cargo lifters. A huge reason air freight prices soared with COVID was that so much capacity operated by passenger carriers essentially evaporated overnight. We may never operate dedicated freighters again, but that revenue is still a key component of our transatlantic operation. The lie flat product on the 757s is in desperate need of a refresh. My bet is that those are configured into the 199 seat domestic configuration as the A321s with lie flats come on property.

Good points, however the LCC toe dipping into premium TA flying will very soon become a cannonball. The intent is to absolutely slaughter legacy yields on the crown jewel of revenue production. They will use superior fuel efficiency on top of undercutting what legacies have grown used to for RASM CASM and trip costs. They will absolutely blow out our margins and wipe out our yields trying to send legacy marketing departments into a retreat on their terms to keep remaining routes as profitable as has been expected. Its just a London flight. OK a couple from a couple markets. OK also Ireland. OK also Paris etc etc. If successful, other LCC's will join in and a couple years down the road the yearly seat dump on once lucrative markets, especially lay flat at a fraction of the price, will be staggering.

Its already a war of attrition. The apparent capacity-war/rational growth truce the industry had during the 2008-ish doldrums is over. Gordon Bethuns once said "you're only as smart as your dumbest competitor." Lose money fighting them now, or lose far more fighting them later. If the 321 XL-Whatever is the best weapon to fight back, great. If counter dumping with widebodies makes more sense, awesome. But it can't go unanswered and on their terms.

sailingfun 09-08-2021 11:28 AM


Originally Posted by gloopy (Post 3292041)
Good points, however the LCC toe dipping into premium TA flying will very soon become a cannonball. The intent is to absolutely slaughter legacy yields on the crown jewel of revenue production. They will use superior fuel efficiency on top of undercutting what legacies have grown used to for RASM CASM and trip costs. They will absolutely blow out our margins and wipe out our yields trying to send legacy marketing departments into a retreat on their terms to keep remaining routes as profitable as has been expected. Its just a London flight. OK a couple from a couple markets. OK also Ireland. OK also Paris etc etc. If successful, other LCC's will join in and a couple years down the road the yearly seat dump on once lucrative markets, especially lay flat at a fraction of the price, will be staggering.

Its already a war of attrition. The apparent capacity-war/rational growth truce the industry had during the 2008-ish doldrums is over. Gordon Bethuns once said "you're only as smart as your dumbest competitor." Lose money fighting them now, or lose far more fighting them later. If the 321 XL-Whatever is the best weapon to fight back, great. If counter dumping with widebodies makes more sense, awesome. But it can't go unanswered and on their terms.

Good article in this weeks AvWeek why what you post is not likely to happen. Mostly centers on the extremely high cost per seat of running 120 to 140 seat aircraft transatlantic. Fuel burn is not impressive on a per seat basis and the gate, landing fees, slot, staffing and other costs eat you alive with low seat counts.

PilotBases 09-08-2021 11:46 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 3292063)
Good article in this weeks AvWeek why what you post is not likely to happen. Mostly centers on the extremely high cost per seat of running 120 to 140 seat aircraft transatlantic. Fuel burn is not impressive on a per seat basis and the gate, landing fees, slot, staffing and other costs eat you alive with low seat counts.

Oh, for a true 763 replacement. Love the 2-3-2, can haul cargo, and true international range.

KnotSoFast 09-08-2021 02:17 PM


Originally Posted by gloopy (Post 3292041)
. . . Gordon Bethuns once said "you're only as smart as your dumbest competitor." . . .

.
Actually, it was Robert Crandall. Here’s the actual quote- “…This industry is always in the grip of its dumbest competitors.…”

.

gloopy 09-08-2021 02:27 PM


Originally Posted by KnotSoFast (Post 3292156)
.
Actually, it was Robert Crandall. Here’s the actual quote- “…This industry is always in the grip of its dumbest competitors.…”

.

He probably said that too, however:

Gordon Bethune quote: "You're only as good as your dumbest competitor."


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