They have deliberately not given any detail on expected earnings or employee costs, other than to say they have some assumptions built in for increases. This is not revealing their hand with respect to negotiations. My take away is that they have laid out good news going forward for the investor which means they may want to be first movers before the details become evident. Also you don't want to over promise and then under deliver. To get a true pop in the stock you need to surprise. With negotiations resuming in January we will see if they intend to lock in early or drag things out with the inevitable prolonged angst.

 

Seems more likely to drag it on now.

With staggering inflation and much more to come, if it gets dragged out a few years then the prospect of an 8/3/3 in exchange for some concessions will actually be a rolling pay cut, plus time value of concessions.

 

It's going to take some time as the concession stand has closed with this contract.

 

I think on page 40 or 41 they discuss this, but the main driver for level to decreasing non-fuel CASM in regards to employees was the early-out VEOPs. They even discuss wage increases but say it is offset by the VEOP. We lost 2500 maxed out Captains and are replacing them with 1st year Noobs. I think with the competition within the legacies to hire lately, coupled with management sitting down in January for multiple meetings tells the story. It may still take a while, but I don't think we'll have to wait until 2024 for a TA.

 

There’s a quick deal to be had if the company is smart and wants to attract newbies. The same 3,500 apps are on file for all the majors aren’t enough to meet the need. We want to stand out, so people don’t leave for greener pastures 6 months after indoc…and so others will walk to us even if our offer comes second. Stress our competitors’ training pipeline for strategic and competitive advantage!

5:15 Vacation and training. 25% DC. Better deadheads, better meals. Halve the health care premiums. Shorten conversion windows, institute IQ golden days and improve reroutes. Give the RCC buckets of credit every month to enhance QOL above the optimizer solution. 15/8/5/5 pay raises with full retro and a me-too catch up provision for peer pay. Pay short call credit above guarantee and establish a minimum percentage of ULC lines in each category. Leave profit sharing unmolested. Make positive space commuting permanent. Add a week of vacation to all longevities. In exchange for all that, they can have all my buddy passes back…and attract the best of the best…and cripple AA.

TA it in January, ratify it in March and get back to the business of printing money. I’ll be the professional negotiator for one MEEEELION dollars. Cheap.

 

Well, now I'm erect.

 

I can only get so erect, stop!

 

TED74 for NC Chair!

 

Seconded.

Filler

 

I’m voting TED.