Because it works - consistently. Over various sizes of the SL. Just look at your own stats above. Whether 95 WB (in 2000 with 14,400 pilots) or 121 WB's (today with 17,300 pilots), WB A % has been amazingly consistent (those two examples were within 0.1% of one another). There are only a couple outlier months, and that within +-3%.

And you will note I did not say it will never shift/drop to 30%, I said it certainly won't happen in the next 5 months. 5 years from now (assuming all goes well and we actually get 45 more WB deliveries and 763 replacements), it absoulutely could be at 30%, and maybe even sooner than that. But it's very likely to be a (relatively) slow march, not a sudden "new norm" in one or two AE's - as history has shown us.

FWIW, while it's a fun parlor game, I really don't care about 2000/01 vs. 2010 vs. 2014 getting WB A. In real terms, it's meaningless, other than one additional seniority number. I also really don't like calling it a "wall". When it consitently cracks 30%, for example, that's a "wall falling". An actual shift. IMO, we shouldn't call the inevitable awards of 2010 or 2014 hires being awareded WB A a "wall falling".

As I've said, I'd love to be wrong. I just think basing analysis on real data, and not gut feel or hopium is a better predictor of "future returns". No guarantees offered.

 

agreed. 2001 hires took 15 years to upgrade. 2020-23 hires, 3 months.

 

Yes BUT, 2001 hires took 15 years to get to 85%..2021 hires took like what 12 monthsish to get to 85%. It's the percentage that matters.


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Fast forward to 2028-2030 time frame. All of the 767 doing int flights are done - meaning those flights have to be flown with a 764- 330 or 350 350-1000 If you look at how many ER captains there are, many of them junior - where does that put the most junior 330/350 captain in 2028? 5,000-6000?

 

The most junior 330/350 captain stays at the exact % system-wide as it is today (baring the 'shift with growth' argument). All the junior 7ER captains that get displaced as the fleet shrinks can go ONLY to where their seniority can hold. They may not be senior enough to hold 330/350 CA when the fleet goes away.

 

Which is going to drive 737a more senior I think..

 

Heres when the Maxes show up and dilute the 73Na seniority. Maybe they come, *maybe* they don’t.

Does the Max fly the same 321N trips? Do they go west coast to Hawaii? Or does the company fly these on the medium haul domestic.

 

This is why it will go junior. It might get to people but those people are doing well as senior WBB, or senior enough NBA and won't mess up thier deals to claim the throne.

 

Would you then say that 2030ish will be a pivotal year(s) then? That is, if the 767s retire by then, only pilots south of 2016 could be displaced to a 330/350? The rest to NBA?

 

i’m guessing 320 will get a good chunk of the ER displacements that can’t hold WB.

1. The NEO rate is not a pay cut for them while the current 73N rate is. (MAX rate TBD, if we even get it). by 2030 I’m expecting all our 320s and most our 319s to be gone while we get more 321NEOs, that would drive the average rate for that fleet higher.

2. If they do want to go WB, the 320 will give them a short course to WB A when they can hold it. Plus allow them to learn AB on a domestic fleet if they have never flown it.