APC Oil talk
11-23-2024 | 12:08 PM
#13
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,205
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Here is a rough synopsis. Yes we produce lots of oil but there are different grades of oil. Almost ALL oil drilled in the US is exported.
https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-...and-export-oil
https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-...and-export-oil
The United States does not export most of its oil. While the U.S. has become a significant player in the global oil market, it still consumes a large portion of its domestic production and imports oil to meet its needs.
Oil Production and Consumption
In 2022, the United States produced approximately 20.08 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum and consumed about 20.01 million b/d. This indicates that domestic production closely matches consumption.
Exports and Imports
The U.S. has seen a significant increase in oil exports in recent years:
• In 2023, the U.S. exported about 10.15 million b/d of petroleum.
• Crude oil exports accounted for 4.06 million b/d, or 40% of total U.S. gross petroleum exports.
However, the U.S. also continues to import oil:
• In 2023, the U.S. imported about 8.51 million b/d of petroleum.
• Crude oil imports were about 6.48 million b/d, accounting for 76% of total gross petroleum imports.
Net Exporter Status
While the U.S. does not export most of its oil, it has become a net petroleum exporter in recent years:
• In 2023, the U.S. was a net petroleum exporter of 1.64 million b/d.
• This marks the third consecutive year of being a net total petroleum exporter.
Oil Production and Consumption
In 2022, the United States produced approximately 20.08 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum and consumed about 20.01 million b/d. This indicates that domestic production closely matches consumption.
Exports and Imports
The U.S. has seen a significant increase in oil exports in recent years:
• In 2023, the U.S. exported about 10.15 million b/d of petroleum.
• Crude oil exports accounted for 4.06 million b/d, or 40% of total U.S. gross petroleum exports.
However, the U.S. also continues to import oil:
• In 2023, the U.S. imported about 8.51 million b/d of petroleum.
• Crude oil imports were about 6.48 million b/d, accounting for 76% of total gross petroleum imports.
Net Exporter Status
While the U.S. does not export most of its oil, it has become a net petroleum exporter in recent years:
• In 2023, the U.S. was a net petroleum exporter of 1.64 million b/d.
• This marks the third consecutive year of being a net total petroleum exporter.
11-23-2024 | 12:11 PM
#14
Banned
Joined: Sep 2016
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11-23-2024 | 12:27 PM
#15
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Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2013
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Unless our favorite president gets Boeing and Airbus to deliver planes on time, that ain’t happening.
I am always amused by people who think things will magically change in some huge way. Barring insanely high tariffs or essentially impossible levels of mass deportation to crash the economy, absolutely nothing will change on a scale that quick. The economic impact of most policies is measured on the scale of years to decades.
The most likely policy to affect hiring immediately would be age 67. That would probably result in a reduction of 300-400 pilots needed per year for two years.
I am always amused by people who think things will magically change in some huge way. Barring insanely high tariffs or essentially impossible levels of mass deportation to crash the economy, absolutely nothing will change on a scale that quick. The economic impact of most policies is measured on the scale of years to decades.
The most likely policy to affect hiring immediately would be age 67. That would probably result in a reduction of 300-400 pilots needed per year for two years.
11-23-2024 | 12:38 PM
#16
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 1,407
Likes: 500
Take a look at the markets! Of course a new administration has the ability to greatly affect the economy. The US economy is a recoiled spring held back by bureaucracy and unnecessary regulation. The economy is very likely to start cooking (which will benefit the airlines bigly) again after the new administration cleans house. Airline growth is highly correlated to GDP growth. Any idea when we had our biggest PS checks?
I think it’s a tall task for any administration to replicate how good the last four years have been for legacy airline pilots.
I hope you’re right and the next four years are even better.
However, no way are we going to see 20% returns on the S&P in perpetuity.
11-23-2024 | 01:07 PM
#17
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2013
Posts: 12,535
Likes: 1,131
Here is a rough synopsis. Yes we produce lots of oil but there are different grades of oil. Almost ALL oil drilled in the US is exported.
https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-...and-export-oil
https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-...and-export-oil
11-23-2024 | 01:52 PM
#18
On Reserve
Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 198
Likes: 19
well sure…but also your 401k, assuming it was in an index like most people should be doing almost doubled the last four years. We also got enormous contractual gains. Most people, me included, had their salary double the last 4 years.
I think it’s a tall task for any administration to replicate how good the last four years have been for legacy airline pilots.
I hope you’re right and the next four years are even better.
However, no way are we going to see 20% returns on the S&P in perpetuity.
I think it’s a tall task for any administration to replicate how good the last four years have been for legacy airline pilots.
I hope you’re right and the next four years are even better.
However, no way are we going to see 20% returns on the S&P in perpetuity.
The pay raises of 20% at time of signing seems like we just barely made it even.
11-23-2024 | 02:02 PM
#19
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 1,407
Likes: 500
Yes, the last few years markets have been great and we got great gains to our PWA. But how does that all compare when you account for the insane inflation that also occurred in those same few years? Housing is up almost 50%. Inflation on day-to-day items is up over 20%.
The pay raises of 20% at time of signing seems like we just barely made it even.
The pay raises of 20% at time of signing seems like we just barely made it even.
As for housing, assuming you owned before covid, like most delta pilots, it just means your equity has increased, while probably taking advantage of once in a lifetime low interest rates.
I’m not saying people aren’t struggling. I’d say 80% of people are having a tough time, and made that clear to the incumbent party, but to argue that times have been tough the last 4 years by any metric for a legacy airline pilot I think is a tough sell.
Last edited by Extenda; 11-23-2024 at 02:33 PM.
11-23-2024 | 03:57 PM
#20
Line Holder
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 1,189
Likes: 323
Yes, but if you literally make 6 figures more a year, the fact that groceries are a few hundred dollars more a month is a good trade off. Just subtract what your average salary was 4 years ago, vs your average monthly expenses, and note how much more disposable income you have at the end of the month now.
As for housing, assuming you owned before covid, like most delta pilots, it just means your equity has increased, while probably taking advantage of once in a lifetime low interest rates.
I’m not saying people aren’t struggling. I’d say 80% of people are having a tough time, and made that clear to the incumbent party, but to argue that times have been tough the last 4 years by any metric for a legacy airline pilot I think is a tough sell.
As for housing, assuming you owned before covid, like most delta pilots, it just means your equity has increased, while probably taking advantage of once in a lifetime low interest rates.
I’m not saying people aren’t struggling. I’d say 80% of people are having a tough time, and made that clear to the incumbent party, but to argue that times have been tough the last 4 years by any metric for a legacy airline pilot I think is a tough sell.
My investments are at an all time high.
My house has increased value by 50-60% over the last 6 years.
Even with a spike in inflation (which was a global thing), still coming out way ahead.
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