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Old 02-04-2026 | 05:25 AM
  #261  
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Originally Posted by PositiveRate20
Looking forward to seeing Fang's analysis in the AE Trend sticky thread
I’ll make one (probably obvious to all) prediction now. Everything drops meaningfully more junior than last couple of AE’s, especially NB A. High number of vacancies generally corollates with more junior awards.

Get your bids in, you can’t get what you don’t bid for…
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Old 02-04-2026 | 05:26 AM
  #262  
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Originally Posted by game
Sorry, you’re right. But then that begs the question, why are people going back into iCrew and bidding for a seat they already hold?

I’ve been told by very smart people that the pilots who do this think having a bid for the seat they already hold will protect them from a displacement. Which is FALSE!

Pilots should take pilot count on icrew with a grain of salt. The counts are overinflated because of pilots who are submitting an AE for a position they already have.
I guess it would be a bid where you want to change seats if certain qualifiers are met and you don’t meet a qualifier in your seat anymore?
Say you are 320 at 40%, and that’s your top bid, but of you slide backwards below 40% and your second line is 320 40% at another base or 737 40% in your base? Just spitballing here.
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Old 02-04-2026 | 05:37 AM
  #263  
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Originally Posted by StoneQOLdCrazy
Almost like the VP of crew resources and her draconian, pilot-despising spreadsheets got shipped out since the last AE.
Fact or RUMINT?
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Old 02-04-2026 | 05:45 AM
  #264  
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Originally Posted by Whoopsmybad
I guess it would be a bid where you want to change seats if certain qualifiers are met and you don’t meet a qualifier in your seat anymore?
Say you are 320 at 40%, and that’s your top bid, but of you slide backwards below 40% and your second line is 320 40% at another base or 737 40% in your base? Just spitballing here.
Definitely possible. Also possible some don’t understand the system as game said. It never ceases amaze me some of the super basic questions that get asked on FB my pilots who are not new.

I also know of several people who got a surprise award, who didn’t remember that years earlier, they had put in an optimistic bid and forgot all about it. Oops…
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Old 02-04-2026 | 07:03 AM
  #265  
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I have to two questions for this AE:

For the 22D3 stuff, is it like the AE where they can put out a number but have no obligation to meet that number? If so, what is even the point of paying attention to the jump for 2026?

And for hiring for the MAX, why would we hire for it at all? We are going to be winding down the 717 and 7ER, would they not just put those pilots on the MAX as they wind down those fleet? I don’t really see very much NB growth at all going forward.
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Old 02-04-2026 | 07:10 AM
  #266  
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Originally Posted by SlightlyTaco75
For the 22D3 stuff, is it like the AE where they can put out a number but have no obligation to meet that number? If so, what is even the point of paying attention to the jump for 2026?
Sure, though I imagine "good faith" is involved. It is a forecast, not necessarily a target.

I haven't dug deep enough to determine that all past 22D3 reporting has merit to what actually happened, but my feeling is that it's probably fairly consistent with what actually occurred.

EDIT: Here's a chart that's the same as I posted above, with the addition of our actual seniority list at the projected dates.

I definitely see at least SOME correlation.


Last edited by Verdell; 02-04-2026 at 07:27 AM.
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Old 02-04-2026 | 07:45 AM
  #267  
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Originally Posted by Verdell
Sure, though I imagine "good faith" is involved. It is a forecast, not necessarily a target.

I haven't dug deep enough to determine that all past 22D3 reporting has merit to what actually happened, but my feeling is that it's probably fairly consistent with what actually occurred.

EDIT: Here's a chart that's the same as I posted above, with the addition of our actual seniority list at the projected dates.

I definitely see at least SOME correlation.

Why is the projected number so much lower than the target? If they wanted to lower number wouldn't that be easy to meet with attrition?

Also I was just curious if anyone knows if there is any statistically significant switching from one NB to another or if those bids are generally based driven.
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Old 02-04-2026 | 07:53 AM
  #268  
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Originally Posted by icohftb
Why is the projected number so much lower than the target? If they wanted to lower number wouldn't that be easy to meet with attrition?

Also I was just curious if anyone knows if there is any statistically significant switching from one NB to another or if those bids are generally based driven.
It's always been that way and I'm assuming that the projected number is just active pilots, not including instructors, management, and people on mil leave or disability.

It would be cool to have the covid projection overlayed with the actual numbers. That one was wayyy low.
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Old 02-04-2026 | 07:59 AM
  #269  
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Originally Posted by icohftb
Why is the projected number so much lower than the target? If they wanted to lower number wouldn't that be easy to meet with attrition?
my understanding is projected has no slop for pilots moving to other roles like SLI, management, MLOA, sick leave and other leaves. it is the absolute bare minimum they could operate the airline with. It was also the number they attempted to use to scare us into concessions during the pandemic.
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Old 02-04-2026 | 08:26 AM
  #270  
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Originally Posted by Trip7
3 things changed IMO

1. Centennial year financial year overhang gone

2. 737 MAX 10 is actually coming

3. Parked 321NEO seating temporary fix plan is moving forward
Originally Posted by FangsF15
I think you are right about all those things (though -Max hiring may be a bit early still?). I would add one more, though:

4. C-suite hiring direction following 23M7 cost epiphany.
As I've posted on here many many times. Until the costs (expense) show up on the bean counters radar, nothing changes. The 9 figures spent on barely maintaining schedule integrity did get attention.

Hiring for MAX really isn't baked in, this is hiring to maintain actual relevant numbers of pilots, where we should have been at over a year ago (save attrition). Neither is NEO lie flat.

This only changed because the bean counters hit the button when they saw the numbers, and the numbers were significant for them to act.
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