As for NB growth, we still have 65 223’s and 68 321-NEO’s to be delivered in the near term (plus 70 options), and 100 Max’s in the medium term (plus 30 options). That will absolutely outpace 717 and 75 retirements over time.

The 22.D.3 is just a projection. They have no obligation to actually meet that.

 

It isn't very smart, it literally will just show a count of senior bidders to you. There are likely standing bids with qualifiers that muddies the waters too, when not met just stay in until the next AE. Good luck!

 

Whats the status of the Neo seats?

 

First of all, you can’t “just put pilots” on anything. Second if they are indeed “hiring” for the MAX it’s because they see the MAX fleet growing faster than the 717 and ER fleets draw down.

 

Is putting qualifiers in for an AE pretty common? Or is it 5-10% of the bidders? Just curious if I have a chance. Subscribing to the BWYWWWYB philosophy, just trying not to get my hopes up with all the hype. No qualifiers here, just want the seat. I’m not far off the plug for the bids I’m after, but that isn’t a great gauge since some REALLY junior pilots got upgraded in the past and have been stuck at the bottom for years.

 

It's very common. Don't be discouraged even if you see 100+ bidders senior to you for a position.

 

Can’t remember where I saw it, but I thought I saw or heard that the lie flats couldn’t pass crash testing, so Delta is asking for new bids for a replacement design, and they plan to install regular 321N seat configs in the tails that haven’t flown because of it

 

How far out will max staffing begin? Realistic timeframe for certification and subsequent delivery is still over a year away.

 

MAX is not all growth. Some are replacements for retirements of older 73s. The last number I think I saw was about 300-400 extra pilots to accommodate MAX. It's not a number in the thousands like some seem to think.

MAX is delayed principally due to the engine cowl icing issues for the LEAP. The first engineering solution didn't work for the FAA, so Boeing had to go back to the drawing board and redo it. That 2nd iteration is in flight testing now and is looking promising. Boeing just cleared a lot of test points with a pretty major one happening just last month. Otherwise it's a solid aircraft. We do expect to see it certified by late fall of this year. It could be earlier given Boeing is really cranking out the test flights with a "MAX"-imum effort. There is new leadership in Commercial Airplanes division and a new head of the MAX program. They are getting it right.

The NEO lie flats was a debacle. I won't go into the details here. There is another vendor being courted to do the seats. I think we'll see some rapid movement on that front. We really want the 321 NEOS on the transcon routes. D1 seating is what we want on those aircraft. Things are looking better on that front.

 

Purely speculation, but I would guess NB seats have more bids with qualifiers and higher bars on those qualifiers. In the WB categories trips are similar, so relative position doesn't matter as much. WB categories are better staffed and schedules are more efficient, so your vacation bidding isn't as important. Some of the bids you see are commuters looking to find the best combination of relative seniority and commute and may have a dozen layered bids across multiple Base/Seniority options.

Take a hypothetical TX commuter. LAX, SLC, MSP, DTW and ATL are all options with similar commute times. A pilot may have layered preferences across all bases within their fleet. Only in rare instances have I been awarded my 1st choice on an AE. It's often 4+ that hits. This AE I'm expecting preference 3 to hit and 5 as next most likely.

Also, if you barely make the cut on the mid bid, don't expect to be on the final.
BWYW WWYB