What an annoying thread drift, another Boeing v Bus argument.

I just wanna know what the payrate is. LFG.

 

A thread drift about thread drifts?! Unparalleled!

 

The pay rate for the -10 better be the same as the NEO and the ER, otherwise we would be getting screwed. I don't see why not though given the precedent of the NEO introduction.

 

If reliability is part of the equation then the 220 is out, especially a new variant.

 

I'm going to go with a range of somewhere between zero percent (high end) and negative 1200% (low end) that we get any 7MAX (or 319NEO’s) ever. New or used. Not going to happen.

Lets face it, if pilots were running airlines the entire domestic fleet would be 757’s with afterburners, every flight would leave with full tanks and every trip would be premium pay plus someone else getting triple pay to sit at home. And we’d go bankrupt in months.

We tend to think of the “mission” as raw operational purists in a DoD(W) style world where the will of the mission is its own justification. IRL there’s shareholders, mini empire’s with sometimes myopic bonus-centric concerns and sometimes even profit sharing to consider.

So what about those few rare markets where planes like that would be more optimal for the “mission”? Do we go with a much higher CASM (even if only on paper) sub fleet that we carry all of the time? Or do we just block a ton of seats on whatever can do it half full and not have to worry about it?

Zero chance IMO that we get the smallest narrowbody offered in a range going forward. I also doubt we will get any MAX8’s or 320NEO’s, the latter will only maybe happening if a desperate lessor somewhere gives us some orphaned former Spirit ones for a deep, deep discount. And that also very unlikely. It’s also funny to hear any 737-8 (even the MAX8) be referred to in a way that implies stellar performer.

 

there would also be 200 772LR’s, they’d even fly JFK-KEF, no 350’s, not a single Airbus.

 

no amount of blocked seats will get an a321 or max 10 into EYW. (Well maybe blocking ALL of them)

we fly to several airports where we would need extra performance to get in/out reliably. We may decide to do it with blocking off half the seats on a 321, but I doubt even doing that would give it the performance of a full 319. JAC, EYW, EGE, SXM ect likely would not be able to support a max 10 or 321 even with significant seat blocks. And those are not markets a “premium airline” can just abandon because they don’t want to buy a plane that can fly there.

I agree the VAST majority of our domestic fleet will be 739, 7m10, 321 and 321NEOS in the not so distant future, and that will be for the better. Most the places we fly are long runways where extra performance just means extra cost. But we will need at least some aircraft that can perform at places that are not 8,000’ sea level runways. Will it be the a220? Or a few max 7/8s? I don’t think anyone here knows. But unless we are prepared to walk away from several markets, it will be something other than the max 10 or 321NEO.

 

Myself and Gen Lee have told you about MAX 8s. Saying no one "knows" is incorrect. It can handle all those airports you mentioned. We've looked at it.

 

looked at and make a final decision are different. Unless a final decision has been made but not announced, I’d still argue no one knows for sure. But I don’t know what has been decided behind closed doors so you and the general may very well know for sure.

even EYW for the max 8? That would be impressive if true.

 

Don't the current fleet of 220s fit this niche well? I don't believe we need another shrunken narrow body for performance reasons. They already tried that with a small fleet of 737-700s and ditched them after covid. I dont see them making the same choice now with the max. But one day, the 737-800s/A320/A319 will need a replacement. One could argue that DL could have picked from any of the current offerings to start replacing these jets already, especially the A320s. Instead they have chosen to extend the life of some with new cabins and updated avionics. That would seem to indicate that they don't yet see an optimal replacement and that the economics of keeping some of these older birds flying makes more sense than purchasing what they consider to be sub-optimal replacements. I personally believe that the A220-500 that hopefully comes free of engine problems checks the boxes on their wishlist. But I dont think Airbus is as enthused about making it. So they must have a plan B in mind.

One also has to consider that these aircraft that need replacing were bought during a different time and for different missions than DL is looking to serve now. The 319, for example is small but also has good range for a domestic airplane. DL doesnt seem to want small airplanes these days but does like range, so even though the A223 seems an obvious replacement on paper, it might not be the obvious choice. But then almost everyone seems to be avoiding the A320 NEO as well, but not the MAX 8 to the same extent. For the remaining 320/737-800, knowing DL, I could see them simply ordering a large batch of either 321NEOs or MAX 10s to replace everything or splitting an order for 321NEOs for the 320s and MAX 10s for the 738s, respectively.