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Old 05-25-2012, 09:37 AM
  #101331  
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Originally Posted by alfaromeo View Post
Math Problem for the Day (I hope newk has recovered from his analysis of the staffing formula)

Delta currently flies about 3,600,000 domestic block hours per year (combined mainline + DCI).
  1. Our current share of those block hours is 53.9%
  2. Under the TA, if Delta purchases the extra 70 76 seat jets the minimum share of our block hours rises to 60.9%. Calculate the difference between our current share and our minimum new share.
  3. Divide that difference by 12 to get the monthly block hours.
  4. Multiply that number by 2 because we have two pilots per domestic cockpit.
  5. Divide by 60 whcih is what our block hours per pilot will be in the future.
  6. Tell me how many additional pilot jobs at mainline that this creates
  7. Now contemplate that with a hard cap on DCI fleet, where does all additonal system capacity growth have to go after that.
Mr. JungleBus claims that they can buy the 76 seaters and then dump mainline aircraft. How can they do that and still increase the mainline share of block hours? That is why there is the ratio built in, and it is a very powerful ratio that you will never see again under a new negotiation. Management felt like we took their children when this was negotiated. Block hours are the core of pilot jobs, the number of aircraft required to create those block hours are basically fixed by the average daily ute rate of aircraft.

Bonus question: Under Delta's business plan our share of block hours will rise to 64% (remember DCI fleet is capped). Redo the above calculations and tell me how many jobs that creates at mainline.
Answer A. 700
Answer B. 1000

Ok now you answer a couple of questions:

1st, please explain in detail where you are getting the mainline to DCI block hours from AND why you only used domestic block hours?

Reason: in section 1 of the TA page1-14 9. it states "The Company will maintain a minimum ratio of revenue block hours of company flying on all narrowbody aircraft and all B-767-300(non-ER) aircraft"
No where in section 1 does it talk about domestic block hours only.

THIS IS IMPORTANT!!! why? because we fly 757 to europe, south america, and interpol asia. How many block hours does this count for?

When someone states we are protected by this block hour ratio deal using only domestic block hours i cringe. It is not in our section 1 language!

The company can easily show that they are in compliance as we shrink do to this fun paragraph that lets them count the international block hours on "all narrowbody aircraft"
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Old 05-25-2012, 09:41 AM
  #101332  
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Originally Posted by forgot to bid View Post
and i still standby the worse fear, what if dci 450 is the number network wants anyways?
Originally Posted by forgot to bid View Post
Bar the RAH carve out is absolutely.... can't think of the word. I'm tired. It sucks. It's scary.
Originally Posted by forgot to bid View Post
It is a bad deal. And I know there are some pinky promises out there on this thing, but I won't give up things in writing for pinky promises.
And in the past you've accused me of spin...

Oh, why are they apending money on cockpit upgrades to the 88's...just to get rid of them in your spreadsheet?
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Old 05-25-2012, 09:44 AM
  #101333  
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Originally Posted by alfaromeo View Post
And you accuse ALPA of manipulating the numbers! Does that fleet you have listed make one lick of sense to you? Do you really think we are going to have 300 180+ seat aircraft between the 737-900's and 757's. It looks to me like you manipulated that spreadsheet until you found the most capacity with the least number of airframes. You tried to get rid of the smallest aircraft we had so you could produce more capacity with fewer block hours.

Even under your completely untenable fleet forecast, you show that the minimum ratio produces more mainline jobs and more mainline block hours. Now using whatever fleet assumptions you want, put in 1% system growth per year and then 2% and then show me the numbers.

Finally, list out for me the fleet protections that we have with our mainline fleet today. Couldn't they get rid of all those airplanes you noted above and then replace them with Q400's and Super Efficient 50 seat jets?

Listing numbers on a spreadsheet and actually having some logic behind those numbers are two different things.

alfa OR slowplay,

I have a few questions WRT Sec 1

Do the ratios already figure in planned aircraft retirements?

Based on historical block hr per day avgs per ac, what does the mainline line fleet count have to be based upon each ratio step with 35 more 76 seat jet and 70 more 76 seat jets?

If the company gets 76 seaters(let's say 35) and has to park 50's on that ratio what triggers will not be hit, and what will the safeguard and look backs look like?

Also WRT to JV's why is the language profit/loss arrangements which in the definition of named term include revenue sharing (v Australia), but does not cover possible other schemes?

Could you please show you your math?

Thanks for all your time.
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Old 05-25-2012, 09:47 AM
  #101334  
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Originally Posted by forgot to bid View Post
and i still standby the worse fear, what if dci 450 is the number network wants anyways?
You're a smart guy, you do the math -- look at what they want to be down to in terms of 50 seaters. They've already come out and said a total of 100-150 total, right? Add on the 70+ seaters on top of that.

Yup.

Originally Posted by forgot to bid View Post
are we being suckered?
I have my conclusion to that, that's for sure. Absolutely.
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Old 05-25-2012, 09:48 AM
  #101335  
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Originally Posted by nwaf16dude View Post
No, I am not happy with the pay rates either. Rumor I heard is that we could have had much more, but the company wanted 82 seaters in exchange, which would have led to three-class E-190s at DCI. Supposedly this is all we could get while keeping the limit at 76 seats. Best of two bad choices? I just don't really know. I don't like my choices.
This why I want to the Company's opener. If they were asking for 82 seats, then I can judge whether the NC did it's job. Without this little peice of information, I can't judge their effectiveness or the quality of their work product.

Show me the opener and I may show you the money. (Probably not, but it sounded good.)
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Old 05-25-2012, 09:49 AM
  #101336  
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Originally Posted by johnso29 View Post
alfa OR slowplay,

I have a few questions WRT Sec 1

Do the ratios already figure in planned aircraft retirements?

Based on historical block hr per day avgs per ac, what does the mainline line fleet count have to be based upon each ratio step with 35 more 76 seat jet and 70 more 76 seat jets?

If the company gets 76 seaters(let's say 35) and has to park 50's on that ratio what triggers will not be hit, and what will the safeguard and look backs look like?

Also WRT to JV's why is the language profit/loss arrangements which in the definition of named term include revenue sharing (v Australia), but does not cover possible other schemes?

Could you please show you your math?

Thanks for all your time.
Great questions and this is something I have questions about wrt to section 1.
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Old 05-25-2012, 09:55 AM
  #101337  
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Originally Posted by poostain View Post
Answer A. 700
Answer B. 1000

Ok now you answer a couple of questions:

1st, please explain in detail where you are getting the mainline to DCI block hours from AND why you only used domestic block hours?

Reason: in section 1 of the TA page1-14 9. it states "The Company will maintain a minimum ratio of revenue block hours of company flying on all narrowbody aircraft and all B-767-300(non-ER) aircraft"
No where in section 1 does it talk about domestic block hours only.

THIS IS IMPORTANT!!! why? because we fly 757 to europe, south america, and interpol asia. How many block hours does this count for?

When someone states we are protected by this block hour ratio deal using only domestic block hours i cringe. It is not in our section 1 language!

The company can easily show that they are in compliance as we shrink do to this fun paragraph that lets them count the international block hours on "all narrowbody aircraft"
We got the numbers from OAG (online airline guide?) and then backed the numbers up with data from Delta.

The ratios were figured by fleet (as in the contract) so I use the term domestic block hours as a stand in for those fleets. We first looked at trying to break out the 757 fleet in Narita but the numbers were too small so it made it easier to compute and track the ratios by fleet. The key was to look at what aircraft would be "competing" for the same type of flying as DCI aircraft. Certainly flights to Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean can be done by RJ's and the 757's have stopped flying to Europe and don't go deep South America much if at all. So when I say "domestic block hours" I am really talking about the block hours of those fleets listed in Section 1 which do well over 95% of their flying in what we would call domestic.

So regardless of where those planes fly, they produce block hours for pilots and block hours create jobs. The Section 1 language does it by fleet and that is what the protection is based on. I just used the term domestic because that is probably more familiar to people than trying to list the fleets.
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Old 05-25-2012, 10:12 AM
  #101338  
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Perspective of SEA Sec Treas.

Ron Morrell—Secretary-Treasurer’s Perspective
Just as a reminder, when elected in October 2010 to serve as the secretary-treasurer for the Seattle pilots, I specifically told the pilots who nominated me that I would be their voice, regardless of the fact that I did not have a vote within this body. I also stated that I would give you my honest perspective on the actions of the MEC and my opinion of how they were representing the will of the pilots. Even though I did not have a vote in whether or not this TA would be sent to the pilots for ratification, I attended every meeting, was involved in every MEC-level conversation, and was not shy about making my opinion known. This is my perspective of where we are and how we got here. I will also give you the reasons behind why I will vote no on this TA.

Where are we?
Everyone has had the opportunity to see the e-mails from the chairman and the negotiators. There will be plenty more communication pieces from the MEC Administration and the negotiators over the next 40 days. I recommend you read all of them! Just keep in mind that these communications come from the MEC Administration and the negotiators that brought this TA to the MEC with an enthusiastic “. . . fulfilled the fundamental aspirations of the 12,000 Delta line pilots that we represent.” I have no problem with them touting the accomplishments of an unprecedented early TA. I also understand the contention that this is the best deal management would give us from those who negotiated the transaction. No negotiators I have ever met would ever tell their constituents that the “best deal possible” may be improved if you say no! Our negotiators and the MEC Administration are fully invested in the agreement they brought to the MEC for consideration. You also need to consider that there are many members of the MEC that stated during deliberations that this agreement must stand on its own without any “selling” to the pilots . . . it should stand on its own! This will be a difficult standard to meet when the MEC Administration and the negotiators have staked their reputations and credibility on their statement that this was the best deal they could bring to the MEC! I hope there is no “selling” involved.
The rest of “where are we,” has to do with the guts of this agreement. This would be a long soliloquy if I went line-by-line or section-by-section, so I will let you judge for yourself. You will be given all that is fit to print by the MEC Administration and the negotiators. After reading this TA and listening to the negotiators and the other “experts” that were involved, I consider this agreement an improvement over our present contract. But, the MEC was not tasked with bringing you “an improvement;” they are tasked with bringing you the best agreement. My conclusion is that the present opportunity, as directed by management, should have resulted in a much better agreement. You must make your own decision by comparing what you put in the contract survey with the results! We are not in bankruptcy or the middle of a merger which each has their own unique time pressures; the only time pressure we have now is the one artificially created by management. It is a fact that, in accordance with the pilot survey, e-mails, phone calls, and other input I have received, the direction of the pilots’ number-one priority was NOT met! I could have felt comfortable supporting this agreement if even 80 percent of the number-one concern and request of our pilots was met! This was not the case.
How did we get here?
This past January, the MEC was floated a huge “trial balloon” concerning a business plan direction that the management team wanted to pursue. The MEC, in conjunction with the MEC Administration and the Negotiating Committee developed an opening position based on a full Section 6 contract opener with the intention to extract the best, most comprehensive and expedited agreement possible. Two months later, the MEC was handed a TA. Unfortunately for me, something is missing.
At this point, I believe the pilots must vote based on the content of the TA as you see it. There are no other alternatives except yes or no. I consider this a mistake due to the fact that the MEC was not given the opportunity to give further direction to the negotiators before they made a final decision. With the support of the MEC Administration, the negotiators announced a Tentative Agreement without meeting the direction of the MEC on the number-one priority, as stated by our pilots. The MEC had only one meeting and two conference calls during the duration of this negotiation. Conference calls are not official MEC meetings, and thus the MEC members are not in a position to give official direction to the MEC Administration or to the negotiators. There was never any request for further direction.
To quote our MEC chairman, who also stated that he was in full support of this agreement, “The TA should not be judged compared to the pilots’ aspirations as reflected in the contract survey . . . there is no context to their wishes.” I found this rather pretentious and out of touch with the direction that our pilots gave to our MEC. To be fair, the negotiators and the MEC Administration who declared to the MEC that this was the best deal possible must defend their decision—that is their only political choice. I have already heard a common phrase bantered about, which is used by some to justify just this type of situation, “I voted yes in order to let the pilots have a chance to vote on this agreement.” The problem with this is that your representatives were not elected to “pass the buck;” they are supposed to do the job of representing your direction and to get you the best possible agreement, then vote to send the agreement to you. I consider that statement a copout from those looking for political cover.
My final synopsis: I want our pilots to have the best possible background in order to consider this TA in context. The pilots gave the MEC their direction through a comprehensive survey, e-mails, phone calls, and face-to-face discussions; the MEC gave the negotiators their direction; and the TA does not meet these directions (with no convening redirection requested). After careful consideration, I would have voted against sending this TA to the pilots; I do not believe it meets the direction that the pilots gave us, nor do I believe it is the best product in this negotiating environment. I will back up that opinion by voting no when the polls open.
Epilogue
You and I will be receiving a great deal of information from the MEC Administration and the negotiators over the next 40 days. I encourage you to read, listen, and attend a road show if possible. Keep an open mind and create your own balance sheet to help you decide which way to vote. Remember, a vote against this TA will create a delay but the risk may be worth the reward. You will see very little “balanced” information that points out the downsides to the agreement or possible alternate paths if this is voted down. You will only hear about worst case scenarios. You need to ask yourself a pertinent question—does the management team want a long summer with an open contract and the financial uncertainty it creates over the next year when they are looking to “leap ahead of the competition”? Maybe the worst case scenario of three years of wrangling is not in their best interests.
I look forward to talking to as many of you as possible in the SEATAC pilot lounge over the next weeks. Feel free to call me for more in depth discussions. Whatever your decision—vote!
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Old 05-25-2012, 10:19 AM
  #101339  
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Originally Posted by poostain View Post
Answer A. 700
Answer B. 1000

Ok now you answer a couple of questions:

1st, please explain in detail where you are getting the mainline to DCI block hours from AND why you only used domestic block hours?

Reason: in section 1 of the TA page1-14 9. it states "The Company will maintain a minimum ratio of revenue block hours of company flying on all narrowbody aircraft and all B-767-300(non-ER) aircraft"
No where in section 1 does it talk about domestic block hours only.

THIS IS IMPORTANT!!! why? because we fly 757 to europe, south america, and interpol asia. How many block hours does this count for?

When someone states we are protected by this block hour ratio deal using only domestic block hours i cringe. It is not in our section 1 language!

The company can easily show that they are in compliance as we shrink do to this fun paragraph that lets them count the international block hours on "all narrowbody aircraft"
What the @/$! I'm on the road and don't have the TA in front of me. FTB, Bar, other non-MEC bureaucrats...is he right on this?

Carl
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Old 05-25-2012, 10:20 AM
  #101340  
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Originally Posted by Wingnutdal View Post
I like your thought, but it would actually be 2/8.5/3/3. We pay for it on the first raise, not every raise.

I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall for this part. The only thing that really bugs me is how much money we may be leaving on the table
No I think he is right that the real numbers are 2/6.5/1/1 because profit sharing will be lower every year from here forward. This assumes we make a profit, if we don't than the pilots would come out ahead in the deal.
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