"and I'm out of time..." Bill, you want that seat sooooo bad, don't you.

Nothing wrong with that.

It would certainly partially explain the 180.

 

It sure would be nice to get the seat, but if we only get 16 (?) next year, it would be a couple more after that. I really would like more widebody orders, so large chunks of people would move upward. Could there be a widebody order soon? I would think so, but don't know yet.

As far as the 180 goes, yeah, it was a quick 180. Initially I wasn't happy at all, and then I had to think about what this would do, what truly we could ask for and how long it COULD take, what kind of improvements were made in many of the sections (not just a select few), and where the others are around us. It took a few days and a few talks with some Captains. We can always go back and ask for more, but I don't know what will come out of that, and in the meantime this TA isn't as bad as most people say it is. The key is that it is short in duration, and a 20% raise in less than 3 years isn't bad. When we come back after that, our manning situation is bound to be worse, getting closer to more pronounced retirement numbers. That may be a better time to ask for even more, and maybe at that time our pals at the other airlines will be closer to our contract. If there is a future merger coming up for us, that is another time to ask for more money, since a JCBA would be required. You just have to sit down and look at the odds, and determine if it is worth the gamble. Some people think YES. Some don't.

 

My point is they found a way around the scope.

 

I understand.

I just see it differently.

Doug Parker just valued their pilots at AMR/LCC to us with his tender offer for AMR.

Smisek was wetting his pants BEFORE our TA was released to us with his proposal to pay UCAL the same.

Fact is , this TA does not match SWA pay for F/O's ever. Capts do not match until 2015 when SWA likely will have exceeded again with a new contract. FedEx, UPS, AF/KLM/ Not even close.

Then there are the downside protections that are missing, scope issues, etc. We have all been over it many, many times before.

I believe the leverage exists only now to get this deal fixed, tweaked, what ever anyone wants to call it. If we don't utilize it, it will be gone forever.

The leverage of airlines needing pilots in three years is not nearly as powerful as the leverage we have today. However, that leverage will still be there 3 years from now. This won't.

 

I hear you. I also understand it differently. Parker will do ANYTHING to merge with ANYONE. HE NEEDS IT. AMR is the only one left that can give him size and scope to compete. He learned something with the DAL BK, and that was to go for the other side's labor, and get them onboard. AA labor doesn't want to get more cuts, because they never got any gains in the 5 years of asking, so cuts now would be really deep, a lot lower than the rest of us. So, when Parker comes along and says the cuts won't have to be deep, along with a 7 year fence (to keep out East guys, most will retire within the next 7 years), they were game to do it. It will be interesting to see how Parker would do it, since it would be very expensive initially. He hasn't given his USAir people a raise yet, and the AA guys haven't seen anything forever either. Then add the other employee groups to the mix. It will be VERY expensive.

Same with Smisek. Look at UAL's current rates. My buddy on the 320B at UAL makes $94 an hour (been there 14 years), and flies lines that are close to 95 hours (with credit). His trips are sometimes awful, with weird credit times etc. (terrible work rules) Just bringing up the pay to meet DL's if this TA becomes reality will cost MILLIONS, and then add up the cost of all of the terrible work rule changes. MORE MONEY. A LOT. Add that to CAL's terrible work rules, and I don't think Smisek will be jumping up for joy. He will want to stretch it out as long as he can, because it will dwarf what he is currently paying. And that is just for the pilots.

As far as meeting what SWA FOs make, remember we have different size planes. Are you talking about 737 pay? I know they are coming up on new contract talks soon over there at SWA, but they haven't had the best merger with Airtran, and they haven't been as profitable as years past. They are becoming a legacy, with employees that are adding up in age and longevity. Not all newhires anymore at the bottom scales. They just deferred 30 737-800s for a couple years, wanting to keep an extra $1 billion in their pockets and not have consistant losses, which maybe they are expecting? Will they want to give that extra $1 billion to their pilots in this new contract? I doubt it. As far as pay comparisions with SWA, they have to match their 401K funds to get anything. If they want a 7% match from their company, they have to pull out their own money (7% worth), to get the match. Not at Delta. You get 14% now (15% in 2014) of what ever you made that month, without yourself adding a dime. Yes, the pensions were lost, so that tries to make up for that for those of us that were around for that. But for new guys at Delta, that is a great deal. You don't have to add anything yourself, and Delta puts 14% in the funds of your choice. If you make $10K in one month, in reality you are getting $11,400. ($1,400 into your DC fund, and then you can add more if you like to your own 401K). That is pretty good, and something Southwest doesn't offer. Also, you need a type rating on the 737 there to qualify. If you don't already have one, you need to pay for it on your own. (unless you are an Airtran guy moving over)

When you talk about the leverage we have today, can you tell me what it is? Is it a hunch? What is around the corner? If you don't know exactly, then it might not be leverage. Maybe there is a plan A, and a plan B. If we get this done now, then management knows our costs for 3 years, and can go along with XYZ. Plan B may be the TA doesn't pass, they won't give extra pay to the pilots, and with those funds that they would have used to do that, they will now do ABC..... You just never know. It's a gamble, and an almost 20% raise in 3 years with improvements in many areas and caps and ratios for scope just seems like a pretty good deal.

 

[B]Air Austral has reportedly cancelled its order for two ultra economy Airbus A380 super jumbo jets, according to a ch-aviation.ch report.
The Reunion-based carrier made headlines in 2009 when it struck the $700 million deal. Air Austral pledged to fill the planes with 840 economy class seats, which would have given them the highest capacity of any commercial aircraft ever built.

It seems, however, that Air Austral may have been a bit too optimistic about demand for seats between Paris and their resort island home when they made the big purchase. Relying heavily on French tourists to fill their planes, Air Austral is struggling to stay afloat as the European economy falters.
In addition to the A380 cancellation, the second of two new Boeing 777-200LR’s ordered by Air Austral is languishing in Seattle as the airline does not have enough cash to take delivery



It's unfortunate the European carriers (and this one based in Reunion Island (St Denis)) are having so much trouble due to their economy. But, there are extra planes out there that cannot be paid for. I don't think we should PAY to play, but there may be some opportunities out there. Who knows?

 

That should fit well into RA's plans for long-haul replacement...he loves the 777.

 

I'm sure he's doing everything he can do help GOL or aeromexico get it.

 

"I was at the Atlanta North roadshow

$1,290,000,000 is a bit of a stretch

We are not getting $430M a year at day 1,*Its going to be drawn out over 3.5 years

2012 4% day 1, end of 2012 we are at $40M but we already gave up higher crew utilization(paid for)

2013 8.5% of which we trade 2% profit sharing nets 6.5% equals net $210M(assuming straightline profit)

2014 $210M plus 1% or $20M (since 2% profit sharing is substituted for hard $$$) = $230M

2015 $210M + $40M= $250M

Grand total approx $730M

We need $80M to $100M a year just to keep up with inflation or $350M over 3.5 years so we are giving up(selling) more 76 seat SNB jets to the commuter, better reserve utilization (ALV+15) higher crew utilization (current ALV cap +2) for $730M which is a paltry $380M over our cost of living. Leaves a sour taste in my mouth, we are making our increases by working harder and relaxing scope.

Cost neutral means we pay for the raises not someone else."

 

Elvis, I can see you are not a math major. If I were you I would delete the post, it's embarrassing.