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Old 01-23-2013 | 04:26 PM
  #120891  
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Originally Posted by sailingfun
We are getting 5 new jets a month for the next 3 years starting in Sep. Probably about the max they can take on given training and maintenance constraints.
That's as many as they can take and still, technically, not grow.

Capacity discipline.
Old 01-23-2013 | 04:28 PM
  #120892  
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Originally Posted by sailingfun
We are getting 200 new jets. 80 of those in the current company fleet plan are growth airframes. Not sure how the vast majority comment fits in with that fleet plan.
120 is 50% more than 80. That would make replacement airframes the vast majority of those "new" jets.

Math. You can do it too!
Old 01-23-2013 | 04:31 PM
  #120893  
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Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
I've begun diverting some money into Roth Accounts. Started thinking abuot what is going to happen when my little nest egg hits mandatory withdrawals and where tax rates are likely to be then .....
Bar,

I'm a HUGE fan of Roth accounts and I'm pretty aggressive about doing Roth conversions, including utilizing this methodology:
The Serial Backdoor Roth, A Tax-Free Retirement Kitty - Forbes

I recently learned that the DAL shares we received as a result of the DAL/NWA merger are eligible for conversion.

Probably the best deal out of the fiscal cliff legislation is a change to the law which liberalizes the rules on what accounts can be converted. The details, as far as Delta and the various 401K plans, haven't been worked out but I would expect Delta to make the necessary plan changes to permit employees to take advantage of this.

While I am frequently critical of ALPA, I do think they have a good handle on this and will push DAL to do the right thing.

With our massive ever-increasing national debt, I personally just can't see tax rates coming down in the future. I'd rather take the tax hit up front, let the money grow tax free, and withdraw it tax free.

Last edited by Wasatch Phantom; 01-23-2013 at 04:50 PM. Reason: syntax error...
Old 01-23-2013 | 04:49 PM
  #120894  
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Originally Posted by georgetg
here's another dot:

two dozen current generation 320/737-family aircraft for 1B cash and a trade for some 50-seat RJs..
Delta Said to Talk With Airbus, Boeing on Jet Purchase - Bloomberg

Cheers
George
Heard that in the schoolhouse in December. Now Bloomberg...the plot thickens.
Old 01-23-2013 | 04:50 PM
  #120895  
Gets Weekends Off
 
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Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
I've begun diverting some money into Roth Accounts. Started thinking abuot what is going to happen when my little nest egg hits mandatory withdrawals and where tax rates are likely to be then .....
Bar,

I'm a HUGE fan of Roth accounts and I'm pretty aggressive about doing Roth conversions, including utilizing this methodology:
The Serial Backdoor Roth, A Tax-Free Retirement Kitty - Forbes

I recently learned that the DAL shares we received as a result of the DAL/NWA merger is eligible for conversion.

Probably the best deal out of the fiscal cliff legislation is a change to the law which liberalizes the rules on what accounts can be converted. The details, as far as Delta and the various 401K plans, haven't been worked out but I would expect Delta to make the necessary plan changes to permit employees to take advantage of this.

While I am frequently critical of ALPA, I do think they have a good handle on this and will push DAL to do the right thing.

With our massive ever-increasing national debt, I personally just can't see tax rates coming down in the future. I'd rather take the tax hit up front, let the money grow tax free, and withdraw it tax free.
Old 01-23-2013 | 04:51 PM
  #120896  
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From: Boeing Hearing and Ergonomics Lab Rat, Night Shift
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Originally Posted by Sink r8
...with deliveries "in three to five years", the person said.
I'll go out on a limb here and say that that's unlikely...
I would imagine those aircraft to come within the next 2.5 years.

Here's why:

The only way for Delta to increase the number of 76-seaters is to remove 50-seaters.
The recent 40 CRJ900 order was in exchange for returning 60 CRJ50s back to Bombardier. At that exchange rate the 717/CRJ900/CRJ50 swap out is unworkable as negotiated and thus additional ways of getting out of CRJ50 leases are needed...
Adding about two dozen new but current generation narrow bodies in exchange for getting out of the 50-seat leases provides an additional path to reduce the CRJ50 count...
Additionally the capacity purchase agreements with the DCI providers will need to be reworked. To do that, current CRJ50 providers will need a carrot. A 1-t-1 swap of CRJ50 for new CRJ900 is most likely the only way they will agree to terminate the current CRJ50 CPAs.

The whole transaction hinges on the 717 to 76-seat to CRJ50 conversion formula. The last 717 will join the fleet by 2015, so it's likely this rumored transaction will close in the same timeframe.

Cheers
George
Old 01-23-2013 | 06:09 PM
  #120897  
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From: C560XL/XLS/XLS+
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Rutro, the frequent flyer blogs, flyertalk etc., are on fire in revolt over the company's changes to the frequent flyer program. This could end up being RA's Waterloo. Mr. Invincible could get a serious smack down with FF's fleeing our program.
Old 01-23-2013 | 06:11 PM
  #120898  
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Originally Posted by georgetg
I'll go out on a limb here and say that that's unlikely...
I would imagine those aircraft to come within the next 2.5 years.

Here's why:

The only way for Delta to increase the number of 76-seaters is to remove 50-seaters.
The recent 40 CRJ900 order was in exchange for returning 60 CRJ50s back to Bombardier. At that exchange rate the 717/CRJ900/CRJ50 swap out is unworkable as negotiated and thus additional ways of getting out of CRJ50 leases are needed...
Adding about two dozen new but current generation narrow bodies in exchange for getting out of the 50-seat leases provides an additional path to reduce the CRJ50 count...
Additionally the capacity purchase agreements with the DCI providers will need to be reworked. To do that, current CRJ50 providers will need a carrot. A 1-t-1 swap of CRJ50 for new CRJ900 is most likely the only way they will agree to terminate the current CRJ50 CPAs.

The whole transaction hinges on the 717 to 76-seat to CRJ50 conversion formula. The last 717 will join the fleet by 2015, so it's likely this rumored transaction will close in the same timeframe.

Cheers
George
George,

I tracked with some of that, but how does buying A320's or 737's help us get out of 50 seat contracts? It seems like swapping 900s for 50s could happen independent of the mainline fleet. What am I missing? Thanks!

Edit: I guess I'm asking what do you mean by this: Adding about two dozen new but current generation narrow bodies in exchange for getting out of the 50-seat leases provides an additional path to reduce the CRJ50 count...
Old 01-23-2013 | 06:13 PM
  #120899  
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From: Boeing Hearing and Ergonomics Lab Rat, Night Shift
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Originally Posted by dalad
Rutro, the frequent flyer blogs, flyertalk etc., are on fire in revolt over the company's changes to the frequent flyer program. This could end up being RA's Waterloo. Mr. Invincible could get a serious smack down with FF's fleeing our program.
Actually there is a divide...

The real HVCs are feeling vindicated and reaffirmed in their high-roller status

The not-quite there crowd is who is up in arms...
If you look at how large the upgrade list frequently is, there's a sign that some of the benefits have been undervalued and given away at a reduced rate in the past...

I'm all for making the status actually mean something.

Cheers
George
Old 01-23-2013 | 06:16 PM
  #120900  
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Originally Posted by flyallnite
Personally, after listening to the investor call, I am more convinced than ever that DL is embarking upon uncharted territory for an airline. As much as I'm disappointed at the lack of hiring and lack of a new widebody order, and the overall shrinkage at our company, I do think that something big is right around the corner.

I'm talking about "Big Data". If you aren't familiar with this term then I'd suggest you at least Google it because it's the next big thing. Like internet big. Maybe even bigger. There are a lot of things coming together in the world right now that are going to make possible things that we have struggled to even conceive.

The comments by RA regarding a large investment in revenue, product and strategic planning technology combined with the recent move towards ACARS 601 and other data collection points (such as the new website and app), the move towards a revenue based FF program, lead me to believe that with this new technology will come a top to bottom review of not only our business, but the entire industry and our position in it. Big Data will be put to use in determining what we are going to look like, where and what we will fly in 10 years. This isn't going to be done by some slimy consulting firm. It's going to be in-house and proprietary.

I think that until this review is complete, you'll see minimal aircraft orders and hiring at a pace to satisfy only a status quo. When it is complete, I think you're going to see a very different approach to our business, and I would expect it to be a very aggressive one.

I know all this sounds a bit far fetched, but it's happening right now in healthcare, engineering, manufacturing... practically every field you can think of and when the data finally catches up with the concept, it's going to be like flipping a switch. Boom. The future...
I can see this. Where delta is investing in the enterprise is the customer and IT. Some really cool stuff seems to be going on. The new delta.com website and customization behind it seems to be a peek at where delta is going. Look where we were five years ago versus today. It will be interesting to watch and live the next few years here at delta.
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