Originally Posted by forgot to bid

So basically down 2% in pilots, down 3% in Captains and 1% in First Officers. The fleet over that time period has gone from 714 jets to 722 back down to 717++!

So let me stretch here and try to come up with a win announcement on this... standby...

Originally Posted by Roadkill

Bogus analysis. You always spin it the same way, as if instantly the rise and fall of inventory of planes and pilots doesn't exist-- "If it was so bad, we would instantly on this AE see hundreds of displacements!"

WRONG. It WAS bad, and we ARE seeing hundreds of bad things-- you just spin it like they don't exist. What we are seeing is the evaporation of the hiring that would have been required. This is exactly like Safety work... just because there are no visible plane crashes, doesn't mean something huge didn't happen safety wise. What we are seeing is :
1. No hiring, when the company would have been required to hire.
2. Small amount of narrowbody capt spots funded from displaced widebody, when they would have been funded from FOs moving UP instead of wide Capts moving down.
3. Small amount of total vacancies, when they would have required hundreds more instead.
4. Some possible advancement for some in top 50%, who've already been sitting at the top of this pyramid scheme 5 years longer than anyone was ever supposed to, when it was deemed an acceptable pyramid of inequity... ZERO advancement for those at the bottom of the pyramid, who've been sitting there for 14 years or so now.

Here's something sinkr8 or gloopy would write to explain it:

You're like a rich cattleman, looking at a turd a coyote just laid and say, "Well hey, this is nowhere near as smelly and large as it could have been! And very soon this coyote says he'll stop cr pping altogether He's going vegetarian! And come on, he can't really eat my cows!" We look at the same turd as poor land-croppers who can only aspire to owning poultry and say, "Yeah, but that wolf ate all my chickens and rabbits!"

And I guess I should defuse your standard attack/response by saying I love working for Delta, I love coming to work, I have several alternate plans and income sources, I want the best for the airline and investors, I don't want to quit and work somewhere else and shouldn't have to just because I speak up when I see someone twisting truth into a palatable lie, I'm 99% enthused about everything Delta is doing and the other 1% is probably good for the owners, I wear my hat and coat and actually like them a bit, I do everything I can to make folks fly Delta just like you do...

I just disagree on the pilot-count results of the TA. That's it. I don't even necessarily disagree on whether something better was even possible! I'm smart enough to recognize medicine and when I need it... but it absolutely irks me when someone tries to tell me the fish-oil they're feeding me is candy, and my taste-buds are lying to me.

Originally Posted by alfaromeo

I think your central problem is separating out what was a result of the TA and what wasn't. How many pilots posted their 12 month lookback on hours that were less than 200 for the year? How many guys have been talking about sitting on reserve and not flying for weeks? It certainly shouldn't have been any surprise to you that we were overstaffed by a good amount starting 2012. In January 2012 we had 1430 pilots over the minimum staffing formula. As a comparison, January 2007 we had 300 pilots over the min staffing formula. That overstaffing was before we even started negotiations. That overstaffing had nothing to do with the TA.

Also, it should not be a surprise that the poor economy in Europe that is causing a decrease in Atlantic flying is also not a result of the TA. We had well over a hundred (maybe close to 200) guys come back from military leave, that had nothing to do with the TA. The A-330's were scheduled to go to lie flat mods and that had nothing to do with the TA.

So you are trying to conflate everything negative about your career progression with the ratification of the TA. This is just a false argument.

These are the differences that occurred with the TA;

1. Early out program that let about 200 pilots out early
2. Work rule changes, some positive some negative, that cost about 125-150 jobs net
3. Acceleration of 50 seat removals and addition of 717's (or other small narrow body) at a faster rate than without the TA

In short, the TA made whatever bad stuff you feel, less bad. Without the TA we still were overstaffed, pilots would still come back from Mil Leave, the A-330's would go in for mx, and Europe would still be in recession. Each bid that has come out since the TA has been net positive for pilots moving to higher paying positions and this will be the same. Much of that gain has been because the early out program and the addition of 290 jobs from the 717.


So you can rant all you want. If you want to blame the weather on the TA or SuperStorm Sandy or anything else you can. The problem is separating out independent and dependent events. Most on this forum simply lump all their problems, real or perceived, and then blame the TA for this. That is a false argument.

Originally Posted by scambo1

You never know. Some guys qualify their bids and it knocks them out. There are a lot of moving parts on this ae. Tons of training and tons of possible outcomes. If nothing else, it'll be interesting. I think the 717a will maybe make it to a 2000 hire.

Originally Posted by boog123

Im all for betting a frosty on it. I'll say it doesn't go below 8200.

Originally Posted by scambo1

Whats a 2000 hire seniority? I'd spitball around 8200 as well.

Originally Posted by TOGA LK

Valid points. However, being the number one US carrier to Asia with two hubs fed by another airline flying 737s and adding more CRJ-900s that compete directly with Delta mainline jobs does not help the situation either. In my strong opinion, this and the ALV bump to reserve killed any chance of hiring. Add in the over staffing before this TA and its truly the kindness of someone on the 4th floor 500 to 700 guys haven't been shown the door while every other major is preparing to or already hiring.

Originally Posted by scambo1

Whats a 2000 hire seniority? I'd spitball around 8200 as well.

Originally Posted by Pro Fessional

January 2000 hire:

DAL 8600
NWA 10100

Originally Posted by Delta1067

Any guesses on how many MD's, if any, will come off the bottom of NYC 7ERB now that the bid has been posted? Hoping to avoid training.