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Old 07-29-2013 | 04:26 AM
  #136241  
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From: Light Chop
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Originally Posted by johnso29
Negative. The manline domestic fleet is scheduled to grow by around 70 airframes over the next two years.
I like the idea of 70 growth jets in 2 years so let's go with that for a moment... why are we only hiring 300? I mean why are they only announcing 300 for all of 2013 with 70 planes needing about 1000 pilots plus retirements. and then we are growing 12 WBs too?

there's a disconnect there unless we gave up more productivity than we first thought???
Old 07-29-2013 | 04:38 AM
  #136242  
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Originally Posted by johnso29
From an advancement standpoint, hiring means little to most of our pilots. Anyone above the bottom 2% really needs growth airplanes or retirements to advance.
IMO, adding 300 pilots (to the bottom) may very well make the difference for weekends off on reserve or holding a line for well more than the bottom 2%.
Old 07-29-2013 | 05:34 AM
  #136243  
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Originally Posted by forgot to bid
I like the idea of 70 growth jets in 2 years so let's go with that for a moment... why are we only hiring 300? I mean why are they only announcing 300 for all of 2013 with 70 planes needing about 1000 pilots plus retirements. and then we are growing 12 WBs too?

there's a disconnect there unless we gave up more productivity than we first thought???
I don't see 70 "growth jets" in 2 years.
I see about 12 more 90's,
14 less DC-9's, an unknown addition/subtraction of 739/757/320's,
and 50-ish growth 717's, with 30-ish more in the 3rd year out from now.

SD's letter stated that the number of pilots to be hired "can and likely will be adjusted". The math doesn't work to hire less(given the 50-ish 717's coming), so it stands to reason that more will be the "adjustment" but they will not announce that until this fall or around the new year.

(My opinion: IFS wanted 1000 FA's in the spring but the board said no, and so they approved a lower total number and had to split the hiring between spring and fall. It's not a Delta hates pilots thing.)

Delta does not have contracts in hand that confirm the purchase of 8-12 WB and 30 more large NB aircraft so they won't announce hiring for aircraft that probably can't even be built and delivered until mid to late 2015. In a real world scenario I'd expect to hear about hiring(or increased hiring) about 2-3 months ahead of scheduled delivery (kinda like we just got with the 717's)

It seems more prudent to make constant and smaller adjustments to the Company plan, keeping it nimble and responsive, backtracking on a strategic plan isn't usually a good idea and sows doubt among the shareholders(and then stock prices decline). I don't see any necessity to announce big numbers years in advance, things could change.... And always do in this crazy business!
Old 07-29-2013 | 05:48 AM
  #136244  
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Originally Posted by Columbia
IMO, adding 300 pilots (to the bottom) may very well make the difference for weekends off on reserve or holding a line for well more than the bottom 2%.
We are not adding 300 pilots to the bottom. We are adding 200 pilots who can hold anything from MD88 Captain to ER-FO and perhaps 100 to the bottom. The furlough returnees have seniority numbers as high as the mid 6,000's.

Shiz's comments re hiring are spot on.
Old 07-29-2013 | 06:04 AM
  #136245  
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Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
We are not adding 300 pilots to the bottom. We are adding 200 pilots who can hold anything from MD88 Captain to ER-FO and perhaps 100 to the bottom. The furlough returnees have seniority numbers as high as the mid 6,000's.

Shiz's comments re hiring are spot on.
Not all the furlough pilots are senior though. I am a 2007 hire and have about 45 furlough guys below me that are still out. I am betting that not much more than half will come back but we shall see.
Old 07-29-2013 | 06:05 AM
  #136246  
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Originally Posted by shiznit
Delta does not have contracts in hand that confirm the purchase of 8-12 WB and 30 more large NB aircraft so they won't announce hiring for aircraft that probably can't even be built and delivered until mid to late 2015.
Is this rumor or fact? All the 4th floor, instructor, in-Command attendees, and LCA BMOC's would have you believe it's a done deal.

Last edited by TANSTAAFL; 07-29-2013 at 06:17 AM.
Old 07-29-2013 | 06:14 AM
  #136247  
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From: Light Chop
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Originally Posted by shiznit
I don't see 70 "growth jets" in 2 years.
I see about 12 more 90's,
14 less DC-9's, an unknown addition/subtraction of 739/757/320's,
and 50-ish growth 717's, with 30-ish more in the 3rd year out from now.

SD's letter stated that the number of pilots to be hired "can and likely will be adjusted". The math doesn't work to hire less(given the 50-ish 717's coming), so it stands to reason that more will be the "adjustment" but they will not announce that until this fall or around the new year.

(My opinion: IFS wanted 1000 FA's in the spring but the board said no, and so they approved a lower total number and had to split the hiring between spring and fall. It's not a Delta hates pilots thing.)

Delta does not have contracts in hand that confirm the purchase of 8-12 WB and 30 more large NB aircraft so they won't announce hiring for aircraft that probably can't even be built and delivered until mid to late 2015. In a real world scenario I'd expect to hear about hiring(or increased hiring) about 2-3 months ahead of scheduled delivery (kinda like we just got with the 717's)

It seems more prudent to make constant and smaller adjustments to the Company plan, keeping it nimble and responsive, backtracking on a strategic plan isn't usually a good idea and sows doubt among the shareholders(and then stock prices decline). I don't see any necessity to announce big numbers years in advance, things could change.... And always do in this crazy business!
good points all
Old 07-29-2013 | 06:58 AM
  #136248  
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From: B757/767
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Originally Posted by shiznit
I don't see 70 "growth jets" in 2 years.
I see about 12 more 90's,
14 less DC-9's, an unknown addition/subtraction of 739/757/320's,
and 50-ish growth 717's, with 30-ish more in the 3rd year out from now.

SD's letter stated that the number of pilots to be hired "can and likely will be adjusted". The math doesn't work to hire less(given the 50-ish 717's coming), so it stands to reason that more will be the "adjustment" but they will not announce that until this fall or around the new year.

(My opinion: IFS wanted 1000 FA's in the spring but the board said no, and so they approved a lower total number and had to split the hiring between spring and fall. It's not a Delta hates pilots thing.)

Delta does not have contracts in hand that confirm the purchase of 8-12 WB and 30 more large NB aircraft so they won't announce hiring for aircraft that probably can't even be built and delivered until mid to late 2015. In a real world scenario I'd expect to hear about hiring(or increased hiring) about 2-3 months ahead of scheduled delivery (kinda like we just got with the 717's)

It seems more prudent to make constant and smaller adjustments to the Company plan, keeping it nimble and responsive, backtracking on a strategic plan isn't usually a good idea and sows doubt among the shareholders(and then stock prices decline). I don't see any necessity to announce big numbers years in advance, things could change.... And always do in this crazy business!
I'm simply going by the mainline domestic fleet count between now and the end of 2015. Perhaps the mainline domestic fleet will increase, & then decrease as 757 retirements are acclerated. All the numbers I've seen from the company and the union point to growth over the next several years.
Old 07-29-2013 | 07:05 AM
  #136249  
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Originally Posted by Columbia
IMO, adding 300 pilots (to the bottom) may very well make the difference for weekends off on reserve or holding a line for well more than the bottom 2%.
Perhaps. But only if you're on a category that newbies are going to, right? And if a majority are going to the 717 or M88, how many will it really help? We have over 10, 000 active pilots. 300 pilots isn't a lot considering the size of our pilot group. It's a great start, but the majority of the group won't be effected by it.

Last edited by johnso29; 07-29-2013 at 07:34 AM.
Old 07-29-2013 | 02:05 PM
  #136250  
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Originally Posted by shiznit
I don't see 70 "growth jets" in 2 years.
I see about 12 more 90's,
14 less DC-9's, an unknown addition/subtraction of 739/757/320's,
and 50-ish growth 717's, with 30-ish more in the 3rd year out from now.
The fleet plan, aircraft delivery schedules and aircraft park and retirement plans are all posted in various locations on Deltanet and are accessible from a work computer. The latest revision that I looked at was dated 6/13/13 and showed a net increase of 80 mainline airframes by 12/31/15. It didn't include the 11 EVA/Uni MD-90's. There were 50 739 and 88 B717 deliveries against 17 DC-9-50 and 41 B757 retirement/lease returns.
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