forgot to bid

Keep everything, especially the 744s.

As to what dump is next, Newark.

I miss that place.


Funny article to read given the jabs these manufacturers are taking at each other. No matter how you look at it, Boeing especially deserves a wake up call.

Bombardier chairman fires back at CSeries critics

My bet is, and I could be wrong, whatever technology either Bombardier or Embraer can throw into their planes so can Airbus and Boeing. But what I hope is Bombardier and Embraer can get this ball rolling on a new narrowbody. I have no problem if the next airplane comes from any of those 4. Just not Cessna, their stuff sucks.

IMHO, is if new technology can be applied to existing frames then Airbus has the upperhand in that the A320 family. The 737 is too low and too narrow to just be updated, but the A318, 319, 320 and 321 can hang bigger better engines underneath and the fuselages are wider... if the plastic of course holds together. Even still, I could see Airbus getting away with an update while everyone else goes clean sheet and the 787 and A380 don't make clean sheet designs fun anymore.

Bucking Bar

You mean "Live TV" the JetBlue product?

Live TV is reported as much better and more reliable than our Panasonic system(s), but I thought we were adverse to giving a bunch of money to JetBlue.


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So if we are 1,000 pilots overstaffed - does anyone correlate that to 1,000 furloughs, or do they usually furlough less than every extra pilot (so as to avoid shortages and staff for unexpected contingencies) ?

Also, anyone know how many are to retire before 1/1/2011?

I'm still thinking notices go our September 2010 for a December furlough, but I very much hope that I'm wrong. Also, if it were 1,000 pilots I'd be a Compass guy.

acl65pilot

Bar;

Something I have been thinking about for a few days. Follow with me for a second.

We are adequately staffed for summer flying? Yep maybe a little light.

When we had 7000 pilots how fat were we in the winter? About 500-600 (check sils for winter 2008 and they were offering well over 399)

Now with 12200 pilots on the list how fat are we in the winter? About 1000. It is about correct for adding 5500 pilots.

My point is that even with the capacity cuts and what not, we are still very close to where we were last year. Over staffed but nothing terribly out of whack with what is normal for the winter months. The 1000 number just seems like a ton with 12200 pilots. We normally cut about 10% of the capacity in the winter, so in effect normal-esque.

I would say that unless we go and right size everything we should be fine. If 2010 is a flat year, and 2011 look better or no worse, we shall survive this melt down. Now if they go park those 80 NWA jets and do not bring on the 90's and the 767/757's in the desert we will have your fears realized. As I have pointed out, two 757's are en route or in SAT for their heavy checks. These jets were parked about six weeks ago. I see this as a quick turnaround.

Just my thoughts of course.

1234

I also wonder if the 1,000 pilots includes the 300 plus that are on furlough bypass (my guess would be no it doesn't include them)?

Superpilot92

The nwa side is nearly below 5000total pilots not 5500

acl65pilot

great, it still is soft math. Point is the same. I do not keep track of current numbers just premerger. We are one now.

Superpilot92

i know, i'm just trying to help prove your point The nWA side has lost alot of pilots in the past 2 years. (around 500) and all the pirps arent gone yet either.

80ktsClamp

Here are my notes from the biannual meeting of the borg. This stuff is primarily all already known public and none was confidential or unreleasable:

JG:

We are on track for on-time SOC... could be easily moved up to mid December

AE in Jan....88/90 to MSP swapping with the busses to SLC. 90ish crews to equal swap. No big moves until fall 2010. Need to see where the pieces are going to fall and they don't want to constantly move crews around bases.

LGA/DCA swap- slots we gave USair were the slots we used for RJ's out of DCA. All normal mainline hub flying out of DCA will remain. ExpecThe NYC base won't be expanded by AE immediately.

3 MD-90's are in our possession from Hello. The first one goes from the desert to GSO on friday (hooray TIMCO maintenance...). All 3 will be online by June 2010. The China Eastern dogies are available via the budget, just aren't sure that we need them yet. We can get them as the economic improvement allows it.

Changing the domestic categories to ER would be the most efficient operation, it will be a slow process especially with ATL.... in small increments (we're already seeing this).

In regards to the Jepp issues (swapping in and out airports all the time), we are looking to go to all ship sets. It will be the largest ship set product Jepp has ever undertaken, but it's looking like it will be doable. Look for this in around the next 12 months.


and then.....

80ktsClamp

BC:

Airtran has reduced from 270 departures a day to 199 out of ATL. They are beginning to be a leisure focused airline. ....Wn in SLC has reduced from 48 flights to 35.

MEM has shown the best YOY margin improvement over the other hubs.

ATL is the highest profit margin hub, then MSp. CVG mainline will stay stable- further RJ reductions coming.
DTW is going well with some further adjustments to come. It is a much better position than chicago as minimal competition and congestion.
NYC- LGA hub-up in march is targetting jetblue with mainline and 76 seaters.

LHR has now become profitable after a rough summer and high competition.


We are currently twice as large as any other carrier trans atlantic. Our operation though is down 20% 4th quarter TATL.


Many route announces are coming next week.... he hinted to let us guess them which were.. . Much of the routes we cut this winter will be back for summer. New africa previously annoucned still planned to try again next year.

AMM/CAI is doing will, Latin America is our most profitable but deep south america way off.

Pacific has seen a huge drop due to swine flue scare- stability now showing. New asia coming out of SEA (previously announced at NWA).

DTW is the natural asia connect point- it will be become thte primary asia connect point for DL.


Africa still extremely profitable. looking to expand more.. the TSA has been quite difficult under this administration. ironically, the more corrupt the place we fly, the more money we make. Looking for more as long as we can keep everyone safe.

Equipment- whales will shift some to the east and SA.
more 764 flying out of jfk... DC9-ATL.
88's will be brought to LGA for expansion.

RAH/F9 issue- doubtful they will fare well in MKE and DEN- they are the 3rd player in competitive markets... doesn't think our relationship with them will last.

JAL- need to counteract the opening of haneda. if we get it- great, if not...we're still making AA spend a bunch of money.

LAX-SYD- off season currently, winter is high season and bookings are getting much stronger. Will increase frequency next year.

80ktsClamp

RA-

very gradual economic recovery. We've found bottom, and are now on the slow increasing side of a long "U."

discount carriers (no longer refer to them as low cost) are pulling down more than us unlike after 9/11.

EU is the weakeast economy,
LA/SA/Africa better.
Domestic is profitable.


-we are looking for ASM increasing
- fuel we expect to be no lower than it is now and biasing higher.
-just under 6 billion in cash


AF/KL/DL cannot be replicated by any other US carrier- LH screwed united with the jetblue incestment. we get a tremendous amount of market distrubution through this deal and thus a huge amount of cash. It exposes us to much more of the world than otherwise (as was seen in the JV TA)
We need the EU to consolidate to 3 carriers to really be strong.

AK/DL- 10 year alliance- we exclusively fly their international traffic.

LGA will be building to 300 flights a day... "build hub"

We need an alliance and Japan and definitely China similar to AF. This is probably 10-15 years down the road for China.

We need to find a sustainable model in deregulation, which has been elusive.



as far as SOC/integration:

Res system cutover in january- this is going to be a big deal. can't screw up like usair did.
single dispatch system/awabs will come in april.
all wavy gravy and red tails will be painted by the end of 2010.


expecting plenty of CRAF flying which is always lucritive.


2010- the last half of 2009 we expect capacity to be as such. planning to be down around 3% from the first half of 2009 (nothing new...)

we are carrying around 1000 extra pilots- avoided layoff at some expense. If we laid pilots off, we would have been in no position to grow which is exactly what they do not want.

We need to know that we can grow around 3-5% a year. with the current fleet we have, we can do that with increased utilization. We need to generate cash to get rid of debt, and will not take on debt to buy new jets if at all possible. having a large cash position allows us to pay down debt maturities. We are the only carrier that is not selling equities to raise cash- huge deal!

We plan on overflying NRT more- minimal O&D traffic there. Reiterated DTW as the primary asia hub.

We will be very judicious on any a/c order.
We have 150 widebodies which is great for our operation...

investing 1B into the fleet- putting "winglets on every airplane that can get them"
All aircraft 737 and larger will have IFE in every seat.

Taking out the back galley in the 88s to give them 150 seats.
A319 needs to pick up seats- approx 8 more can easily be done.
NW752 approx the same increase.


.... more to come